Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

DET @ CLE

Saturday · September 5, 2026·full·gamePk 824389free Saturday

refreshed 494h 19m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Progressive Field

gametime 6:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

75°F

humidity 61%

wind

11 mph

in from CF

precip

clear

park

CLE

open · HP→CF 25°

wind impact on total

-0.34 R/Gmoderate in

Moderate wind in: -0.34 R/G vs neutral. _Lake Erie wind in from LF in spring/fall — kills LH HR; summer flattens_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Framber ValdezLHP · DET	Parker MessickLHP · CLE
xERA 2026	4.57	2.92
xwOBA 2026	0.328	0.266
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.004	-0.002
xERA 2025	3.77	3.07
xwOBA 2025	0.302	0.274
Outs/TB 25-26	2.12	2.33
FIP 25-26	3.75	3.04
kwERA 25-26	3.93	3.16
K% 25-26	20.7%	24.8%
BB% 25-26	8.5%	6.1%
IP 25+26 combined	342.7	200.7
ERA actual 2026	4.36	2.46
ERA (L4)	5.40	1.75
WHIP (L4)	1.59	0.86
K% (L4)	12.3%	27.6%
BB% (L4)	11.3%	4.1%
IP/gm (L4)	5.83	6.42
L4 window	08/12→08/30 (4 st)	08/07→08/30 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	87 (−15)	101 (+4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.29 (+0.91)	2.93 (−0.64)
Arsenal RV/100	0.04	1.22

away arsenal — DET

RV/100 0.04

Sinker—+0.40xwOBA 0.375
Curveball—-0.50xwOBA 0.273
Changeup—+0.20xwOBA 0.333
Slider—+0.00xwOBA 0.158
4-Seam Fastball—-1.20xwOBA 0.278

home arsenal — CLE

RV/100 1.22

4-Seam Fastball—+2.60xwOBA 0.233
Changeup—+0.40xwOBA 0.214
Sinker—+2.80xwOBA 0.355
Curveball—-2.30xwOBA 0.322
Slider—-0.70xwOBA 0.371
Cutter—-1.90xwOBA 0.340

away · DET vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.856

Σ match

2.515

Σ FRV

-2.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Gleyber Torres	0.328	0.277	+0.9
2	3B	Hao-Yu Lee	0.301	0.269	-9.4
3	LF	Riley Greene	0.358	0.312	-5.7
4	C	Dillon Dingler	0.346	0.298	+11.5
5	RF	Ben Malgeri	0.316	0.287	+0.7
6	1B	Spencer Torkelson	0.312	0.277	-6.8
7	SS	John Peck	0.348	0.309	-0.4
8	CF	Zach McKinstry	0.283	0.248	+9.1
9	2B	Javier Báez	0.264	0.239	-2.5

home · CLE vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.706

Σ match

2.841

Σ FRV

+14.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Steven Kwan	0.322	0.351	+6.8
2	RF	Angel Martínez	0.304	0.293	+2.9
3	3B	José Ramírez	0.337	0.351	+1.6
4	DH	Jo Adell	0.326	0.346	-8.5
5	1B	David Fry	0.261	0.284	-2.5
6	2B	Angel Genao	0.300	0.311	-0.7
7	CF	Petey Halpin	0.290	0.314	+4.4
8	C	Austin Hedges	0.274	0.298	-1.2
9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	0.292	0.293	+11.3

defense · DET catcher (Savant FRV)

Dillon Dingler

FRV+11.5
framing+6.8
blocking+2.4
throwing+2.3

defense · CLE catcher (Savant FRV)

Austin Hedges

FRV-1.2
framing+2.0
blocking-1.0
throwing-2.2

DET · Framber Valdez

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs LAD · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	87
Location+	—	—	100
Pitching+	—	—	84
botOvr	—	—	42
SIERA	—	—	5.29

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-17 → 2026-08-30. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-30; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CLE · Parker Messick

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs KC · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	101
Location+	—	—	112
Pitching+	—	—	110
botOvr	—	—	58
SIERA	—	—	2.93

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-19 → 2026-08-30. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

DET · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.33–0.57]

0.106 R/PA · 0.150 R/out · worst: Yilber Díaz (5.88)

CLE · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.31–0.50]

0.096 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Tim Herrin (4.25)

DET

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kenley Jansen	CLOSER	CL	4.84	28.0	13.4	0.89	17/1/22	stable
Tyler Kinley	SETUP	MR	5.15	22.8	11.2	0.87	1/12/9	stable
Kyle Finnegan	SETUP	SU	5.35	18.3	13.5	1.05	2/14/3	stable
Tyler Holton	OPENER	SU	4.06	19.1	6.1	1.06	2/14/8	stable
Drew Sommers	MR	MR	2.59	37.2	9.3	0.63	0/11/1	stable
Jacob Waguespack	MR	MR	5.39	15.5	10.6	1.30	0/4/4	stable
Beau Brieske	MR	MR	5.59	23.5	9.8	1.17	0/1/6	stable
Yilber Díaz	MOP_UP	LR	12.09	16.0	20.0	0.67	0/0/0	insufficient data

CLE

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Cade Smith	CLOSER	CL	2.46	34.5	8.2	1.05	35/0/37	stable
Erik Sabrowski	SETUP	SU	2.80	37.7	14.9	0.78	1/23/2	stable
Matt Festa	SETUP	MR	3.41	25.0	6.6	0.97	1/7/13	stable
Hunter Gaddis	SETUP	SU	3.73	22.6	9.0	0.86	1/28/2	stable
Tim Herrin	SETUP	MR	4.39	21.6	12.0	0.79	0/15/5	stable
Daniel Espino	MR	MR	2.46	44.1	11.8	1.00	0/0/1	stable
Craig Yoho	MR	MR	4.84	24.8	9.9	1.33	0/1/5	stable
Slade Cecconi	SP	MR	4.63	18.1	7.4	5.21	0/0/0	ramping up

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 DET · 0 CLE

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

DET

6 R

11H · 2HR · 3BB · 16K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.342 · SLGe 0.513 · K% 39.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 3 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

CLE

0 R

3H · 0HR · 1BB · 3K · 9LOB

OBPe 0.167 · SLGe 0.111 · K% 10.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 16 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

DET · standout lines

big nights

Riley Greene (LF) · 4-5 | 2 HR, 2B, K2-HR night · 4 H · 11 TB · 4 RBI
Ben Malgeri (RF) · 3-5 | 2B, 2 K, RBI3 H · 4 TB

tough nights

Hao-Yu Lee (3B) · 0-3 | 2 BB, 3 K, R0-for-3 · 3 K
Dillon Dingler (C) · 0-4 | 2 K, RBI0-for-4 · 2 K
Spencer Torkelson (1B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

CLE · standout lines

tough nights

Steven Kwan (LF) · 0-40-for-4
José Ramírez (3B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4