Baseball Daily

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today's slate

STL @ COL

Saturday · September 5, 2026·full·gamePk 824310free Saturday

refreshed 492h 8m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Coors Field

gametime 8:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

92°F

humidity 14%

wind

4 mph

cross LF to RF

precip

overcast

park

COL

open · HP→CF 0°

wind impact on total

-0.04 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Matthew LiberatoreLHP · STL	Mason AdamsRHP · COL
xERA 2026	4.92	5.09
xwOBA 2026	0.339	0.344
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.017	0.016
xERA 2025	4.86	—
xwOBA 2025	0.339	—
Outs/TB 25-26	1.71	1.69
FIP 25-26	4.27	5.42
kwERA 25-26	3.69	3.82
K% 25-26	21.2%	26.3%
BB% 25-26	7.0%	13.2%
IP 25+26 combined	286.3	9.0
ERA actual 2026	5.41	3.00
ERA (L4)	6.86	3.60
WHIP (L4)	1.14	1.40
K% (L4)	34.8%	25.0%
BB% (L4)	4.5%	10.0%
IP/gm (L4)	5.25	5.00
L4 window	08/14→08/30 (4 st)	08/30→08/30 (1 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	100 (+2)	98
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	2.44 (−1.50)	4.73 (+0.25)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.76	-1.32

away arsenal — STL

RV/100 -0.76

4-Seam Fastball—-0.30xwOBA 0.390
Slider—+0.00xwOBA 0.258
Curveball—-1.00xwOBA 0.240
Changeup—-0.90xwOBA 0.410
Sinker—-2.10xwOBA 0.384
Cutter—-5.00xwOBA 0.379

home arsenal — COL

RV/100 -1.32

4-Seam Fastball—-2.80xwOBA 0.389
Sinker—+0.30xwOBA 0.371

away · STL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.932

Σ match

3.717

Σ FRV

-4.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Bryan Torres	0.296	0.403	+2.5
2	DH	Iván Herrera	0.332	0.422	-4.6
3	1B	Alec Burleson	0.372	0.490	+4.1
4	RF	Jordan Walker	0.351	0.429	-7.4
5	C	Leo Bernal	0.407	0.472	-0.3
6	LF	Joshua Báez	0.308	0.388	-0.2
7	3B	Nolan Gorman	0.275	0.381	+0.4
8	SS	Thomas Saggese	0.309	0.367	+1.2
9	CF	Nathan Church	0.282	0.364	+0.3

home · COL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.729

Σ match

2.829

Σ FRV

+2.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Jake McCarthy	0.317	0.327	-0.3
2	3B	Connor Norby	0.295	0.295	-0.5
3	C	Hunter Goodman	0.325	0.346	-0.8
4	1B	TJ Rumfield	0.335	0.349	+6.0
5	CF	Cole Carrigg	0.323	0.335	+2.2
6	RF	Jordan Beck	0.246	0.244	-2.9
7	DH	Troy Johnston	0.329	0.343	-1.9
8	2B	Adael Amador	0.282	0.307	+0.6
9	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	0.277	0.283	+0.1

defense · STL catcher (Savant FRV)

Leo Bernal

FRV-0.3
framing+0.3
blocking+0.3
throwing-0.2

defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)

Hunter Goodman

FRV-0.8
framing+0.2
blocking-0.3
throwing-0.7

STL · Matthew Liberatore

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs PIT · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	106
Pitching+	—	—	105
botOvr	—	—	53
SIERA	—	—	2.44

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-19 → 2026-08-30. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-30; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

COL · Mason Adams

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs ATL · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 1
Stuff+	—	—	98
Location+	—	—	111
Pitching+	—	—	102
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	4.73

Last 1 starts: 2026-08-30 → 2026-08-30. 0/1 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

STL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.46R / inningband [0.38–0.54]

0.108 R/PA · 0.154 R/out · worst: Hancel Rincon (5.40)

COL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.45–0.51]

0.113 R/PA · 0.160 R/out · worst: Juan Mejia (4.60)

STL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Riley O'Brien	CLOSER	CL	3.56	23.2	9.8	0.99	36/1/33	stable
Justin Bruihl	SETUP	MR	4.03	15.0	8.5	1.11	0/10/5	ramping up
Ryne Stanek	SETUP	SU	4.68	24.6	11.9	0.89	2/25/5	stable
George Soriano	SETUP	SU	4.84	23.1	11.4	0.98	2/21/7	stable
Brycen Mautz	BULK	LR	7.37	25.6	15.4	3.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Gordon Graceffo	MR	MR	3.96	18.1	11.0	1.18	1/6/10	stable
Luis Gastelum	MR	MR	4.27	30.0	9.1	1.00	0/1/1	stable
Cade Winquest	unknown	MR	2.38	22.7	9.1	—	0/1/0	—
Hancel Rincon	unknown	MR	42.09	0.0	0.0	—	0/1/0	—

COL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jordan Romano	CLOSER	CL	3.60	24.6	12.3	0.79	14/1/13	stable
Jaden Hill	SETUP	MR	4.28	21.9	12.6	0.83	2/12/4	stable
Juan Mejia	SETUP	MR	4.34	19.6	13.0	1.10	4/9/16	stable
Brennan Bernardino	OPENER	SU	3.46	17.5	6.0	0.86	1/12/7	stable
Jimmy Herget	OPENER	SU	5.14	19.8	11.7	0.99	3/10/10	stable
Zach Agnos	SWING	MR	4.47	15.1	8.0	2.28	2/1/10	stable
Blas Castaño	MR	LR	4.93	19.8	6.6	2.07	0/0/2	stable
Mark Manfredi	unknown	MR	2.66	28.2	15.4	—	0/0/0	—
Nick Frasso	unknown	MR	2.75	19.6	8.9	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

7 STL · 10 COL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

STL

7 R

13H · 2HR · 2BB · 12K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.366 · SLGe 0.579 · K% 29.3

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 10 ER · 6 K · relief 3.7 IP · 4 arms

COL

10 R

11H · 0HR · 4BB · 6K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.410 · SLGe 0.364 · K% 15.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 7 ER · 12 K · relief 4.3 IP · 7 arms

STL · standout lines

big nights

Iván Herrera (DH) · 2-5 | HR, 2 K, 3 RBIHR
Joshua Báez (LF) · 2-4 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR

tough nights

Jordan Walker (RF) · 0-5 | 3 K0-for-5 · 3 K