Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

AZ @ HOU

Saturday · September 5, 2026·full·gamePk 824145free Saturday

refreshed 494h 16m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Daikin Park

gametime 7:15 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

85°F

humidity 72%

wind

8 mph

out to LF

precip

24%

overcast

park

HOU

retractable · HP→CF 345°

wind impact on total

+0.01 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Brandon PfaadtRHP · AZ	Ethan PeckoRHP · HOU
xERA 2026	3.76	7.29
xwOBA 2026	0.300	0.400
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.007	-0.024
xERA 2025	5.27	—
xwOBA 2025	0.351	—
Outs/TB 25-26	1.79	1.63
FIP 25-26	4.19	8.01
kwERA 25-26	3.87	5.40
K% 25-26	18.0%	15.5%
BB% 25-26	5.3%	15.5%
IP 25+26 combined	287.7	13.0
ERA actual 2026	3.49	6.23
ERA (L4)	3.91	6.75
WHIP (L4)	0.91	1.50
K% (L4)	19.2%	12.5%
BB% (L4)	3.0%	15.0%
IP/gm (L4)	6.33	4.67
L4 window	08/14→08/31 (4 st)	08/25→08/30 (2 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	93 (−2)	101 (−7)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.26 (−1.18)	7.06 (+0.86)
Arsenal RV/100	0.75	1.33

away arsenal — AZ

RV/100 0.75

4-Seam Fastball—+1.10xwOBA 0.300
Sinker—-0.40xwOBA 0.353
Changeup—-0.30xwOBA 0.332
Curveball—+0.40xwOBA 0.304
Sweeper—+1.50xwOBA 0.194
Cutter—+2.70xwOBA 0.283

home arsenal — HOU

RV/100 1.33

Sinker—+3.60xwOBA 0.349
Cutter—-2.70xwOBA 0.536

away · AZ vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.899

Σ match

4.091

Σ FRV

+32.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Lars Nootbaar	0.343	0.457	+1.4
2	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0.329	0.434	+9.9
3	C	Gabriel Moreno	0.366	0.527	+8.5
4	2B	Ketel Marte	0.350	0.515	+3.1
5	RF	Corbin Carroll	0.341	0.466	+4.5
6	3B	Nolan Arenado	0.283	0.420	+2.7
7	LF	Max Kepler	0.277	0.384	-0.7
8	1B	Tim Tawa	0.306	0.465	-1.2
9	CF	Ryan Waldschmidt	0.304	0.424	+4.3

home · HOU vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.873

Σ match

2.740

Σ FRV

-6.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Jeremy Peña	0.330	0.315	-2.9
2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	0.450	0.439	-2.7
3	3B	Isaac Paredes	0.321	0.308	+0.6
4	2B	Jose Altuve	0.272	0.263	-5.0
5	CF	Daulton Varsho	0.288	0.275	+3.5
6	1B	Christian Walker	0.301	0.279	+3.8
7	C	Yainer Diaz	0.305	0.280	-4.2
8	LF	Taylor Trammell	0.287	0.282	-1.8
9	RF	Cam Smith	0.319	0.297	+1.8

defense · AZ catcher (Savant FRV)

Gabriel Moreno

FRV+8.5
framing+5.0
blocking+1.5
throwing+2.0

defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)

Yainer Diaz

FRV-4.2
framing-3.6
blocking-0.2
throwing-0.4

AZ · Brandon Pfaadt

Last outing 2026-08-31 vs PHI · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	93
Location+	—	—	116
Pitching+	—	—	109
botOvr	—	—	59
SIERA	—	—	3.26

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-19 → 2026-08-31. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-31; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

HOU · Ethan Pecko

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs NYM · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 2
Stuff+	—	—	101
Location+	—	—	87
Pitching+	—	—	93
botOvr	—	—	42
SIERA	—	—	7.06

Last 2 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-08-30. 0/2 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-30; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

AZ · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.33–0.50]

0.097 R/PA · 0.137 R/out · worst: Blake Walston (5.40)

HOU · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.40–0.45]

0.100 R/PA · 0.142 R/out · worst: Bennett Sousa (4.29)

AZ

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Brandyn Garcia	SETUP	SU	2.43	31.4	6.4	0.83	4/15/6	stable
Juan Morillo	SETUP	CL	2.54	28.6	9.4	0.92	3/17/9	stable
Jonathan Loáisiga	SETUP	MR	3.00	18.3	5.0	0.93	1/8/11	stable
Kevin Ginkel	SETUP	MR	3.52	24.2	6.8	0.93	2/11/5	stable
Taylor Clarke	SETUP	MR	3.82	15.6	4.9	1.00	0/13/6	stable
Dennis Santana	SETUP	MR	5.38	20.1	10.5	0.95	2/5/22	stable
Derek Law	unknown	MR	3.09	15.8	5.3	—	0/0/0	—
Blake Walston	unknown	LR	3.09	0.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Justin Martinez	unknown	MR	3.26	29.2	16.7	—	0/0/0	—
Gerardo Carrillo	unknown	MR	3.38	26.3	19.7	—	0/0/0	—

HOU

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Josh Hader	CLOSER	CL	1.57	37.1	7.9	0.91	23/0/14	stable
Bryan Abreu	CLOSER	SU	4.63	29.2	16.9	0.92	8/13/21	stable
Enyel De Los Santos	SETUP	MR	3.75	21.7	6.6	1.07	5/10/13	stable
AJ Blubaugh	SETUP	SU	3.86	24.5	9.9	1.68	1/9/6	ramping up
Bryan King	SETUP	MR	4.80	18.5	8.0	1.07	6/12/11	stable
Kai-Wei Teng	SWING	MR	4.70	22.1	9.5	2.76	0/3/1	ramping up
Bennett Sousa	MOP_UP	MR	4.56	23.1	13.9	0.67	0/8/2	stable
Tatsuya Imai	SP	LR	4.42	27.9	14.9	3.86	0/0/0	ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

4 AZ · 3 HOU

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

AZ

4 R

8H · 1HR · 3BB · 8K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.268 · SLGe 0.389 · K% 19.5

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 3 ER · 10 K · relief 3.7 IP · 5 arms

HOU

3 R

9H · 0HR · 2BB · 10K · 20LOB

OBPe 0.275 · SLGe 0.342 · K% 25.0

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 3 ER · 8 K · relief 5.7 IP · 6 arms

AZ · standout lines

big nights

Ketel Marte (2B) · 1-5 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Max Kepler (LF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

HOU · standout lines

big nights

Cam Smith (RF) · 2-4 | 3B, K4 TB

tough nights

Jeremy Peña (SS) · 0-5 | 2 K, R0-for-5 · 2 K
Yordan Alvarez (DH) · 0-3 | 2 BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Christian Walker (1B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4