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today's slate

TOR @ KC

Saturday · September 5, 2026·full·gamePk 824066free Saturday

refreshed 494h 18m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Kauffman Stadium

gametime 7:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

99°F

humidity 32%

wind

7 mph

in from LF

precip

clear

park

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

-0.20 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.20 R/G vs neutral. _Open exposed bowl on prairie — summer south winds blow OUT to RF, plays huge_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Max ScherzerRHP · TOR	Seth LugoRHP · KC
xERA 2026	4.21	5.16
xwOBA 2026	0.316	0.346
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.020	0.004
xERA 2025	4.64	5.16
xwOBA 2025	0.332	0.348
Outs/TB 25-26	1.63	1.75
FIP 25-26	5.25	4.61
kwERA 25-26	3.83	4.09
K% 25-26	21.2%	19.1%
BB% 25-26	8.1%	8.2%
IP 25+26 combined	142.0	299.3
ERA actual 2026	6.16	5.03
ERA (L4)	4.64	9.31
WHIP (L4)	1.12	1.76
K% (L4)	21.6%	15.6%
BB% (L4)	10.2%	3.3%
IP/gm (L4)	5.33	4.83
L4 window	08/08→08/30 (4 st)	08/14→08/30 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	94 (+1)	94 (+5)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	6.41 (+1.38)	3.78 (−0.78)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.47	-0.80

away arsenal — TOR

RV/100 -0.47

4-Seam Fastball—+0.60xwOBA 0.346
Slider—-4.80xwOBA 0.352
Changeup—+0.20xwOBA 0.233
Curveball—-0.30xwOBA 0.288
Cutter—+2.30xwOBA 0.248

home arsenal — KC

RV/100 -0.80

Sinker—+0.80xwOBA 0.397
Curveball—-1.40xwOBA 0.258
Cutter—-0.10xwOBA 0.345
4-Seam Fastball—-2.70xwOBA 0.397
Sweeper—-2.40xwOBA 0.377
Slider—-0.60xwOBA 0.323
Changeup—+1.40xwOBA 0.316
Slurve—-4.20xwOBA 0.336

away · TOR vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.662

Σ match

2.940

Σ FRV

+36.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Brett Bateman	0.278	0.314	+3.5
2	DH	George Springer	0.307	0.349	-0.3
3	1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0.333	0.370	+4.7
4	C	Alejandro Kirk	0.306	0.336	+9.8
5	RF	Nathan Lukes	0.285	0.310	+6.2
6	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	0.318	0.339	-3.1
7	SS	Andrés Giménez	0.268	0.300	+14.7
8	2B	Ernie Clement	0.267	0.291	-2.8
9	LF	Myles Straw	0.300	0.331	+4.1

home · KC vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.818

Σ match

2.921

Σ FRV

+8.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	C	Carter Jensen	0.304	0.306	+1.6
2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0.384	0.389	+17.5
3	RF	Jac Caglianone	0.357	0.388	-7.9
4	DH	Salvador Perez	0.305	0.314	-9.0
5	1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	0.324	0.323	+1.7
6	2B	Michael Massey	0.306	0.308	+4.7
7	CF	John Rave	0.321	0.342	+0.7
8	3B	Josh Rojas	0.221	0.250	-0.9
9	LF	Isaac Collins	0.296	0.302	+0.5

defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)

Alejandro Kirk

FRV+9.8
framing+7.0
blocking+3.4
throwing-0.6

defense · KC catcher (Savant FRV)

Carter Jensen

FRV+1.6
framing+2.2
blocking-2.8
throwing+2.2

TOR · Max Scherzer

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs SEA · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	94
Location+	—	—	105
Pitching+	—	—	102
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	6.41

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-19 → 2026-08-30. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-30; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

KC · Seth Lugo

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs CLE · 3.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	94
Location+	—	—	108
Pitching+	—	—	105
botOvr	—	—	54
SIERA	—	—	3.78

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-19 → 2026-08-30. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TOR · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.38–0.51]

0.105 R/PA · 0.149 R/out · worst: Tyler Rogers (4.76)

KC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.42–0.53]

0.112 R/PA · 0.159 R/out · worst: Anthony Gose (5.40)

TOR

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Louis Varland	CLOSER	CL	1.81	31.6	7.0	1.11	32/5/31	stable
Paul Sewald	CLOSER	MR	5.34	25.8	6.3	0.91	24/1/33	stable
Tyler Rogers	SETUP	SU	3.28	13.4	8.0	0.97	4/30/6	stable
Mason Fluharty	OPENER	MR	3.73	25.3	10.5	0.76	1/15/5	stable
Braydon Fisher	OPENER	SU	4.19	23.6	13.0	1.05	1/12/7	stable
Spencer Miles	SWING	MR	2.79	22.7	6.1	2.37	1/4/6	ramping up
Joe Mantiply	MR	MR	3.32	21.4	4.8	1.04	0/0/4	ramping down
Brendon Little	MOP_UP	MR	5.65	32.4	19.4	0.95	0/3/2	ramping up
Michael Lorenzen	SP	LR	5.30	14.6	8.5	4.62	1/0/0	ramping up

KC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Alex Lange	CLOSER	MR	4.76	23.0	11.3	1.03	10/3/20	stable
Connor Thomas	BULK	MR	7.66	13.0	10.1	3.67	0/2/0	insufficient data
Steven Cruz	OPENER	CL	5.14	25.9	8.6	1.06	6/5/7	stable
Jose Cuas	MR	MR	2.96	22.5	14.1	1.27	0/3/4	ramping down
Nolan Hoffman	MR	MR	3.74	14.7	11.8	1.56	0/0/2	insufficient data
Craig Kimbrel	MR	SU	4.07	21.8	10.6	1.03	1/2/15	stable
Easton McGee	MR	LR	6.57	19.1	10.6	1.00	0/0/2	insufficient data
Anthony Gose	unknown	MR	3.09	0.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Nate Pearson	unknown	MR	3.55	20.4	11.8	—	3/5/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

4 TOR · 3 KC

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

TOR

4 R

13H · 0HR · 3BB · 4K · 22LOB

OBPe 0.381 · SLGe 0.385 · K% 9.5

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 5 K · relief 3.3 IP · 5 arms

KC

3 R

7H · 1HR · 2BB · 5K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.278 · SLGe 0.333 · K% 13.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 4 K · relief 4.0 IP · 6 arms

TOR · standout lines

big nights

Nathan Lukes (RF) · 3-5 | RBI, R3 H
Kazuma Okamoto (3B) · 4-5 | 2 2B, 2 RBI4 H · 6 TB

tough nights

George Springer (DH) · 0-4 | BB, R, SB0-for-4

KC · standout lines

big nights

John Rave (CF) · 1-3 | HR, BB, KHR

tough nights

Vinnie Pasquantino (1B) · 0-40-for-4