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today's slate

WSH @ LAD

Saturday · September 5, 2026·full·gamePk 823904free Saturday

refreshed 492h 10m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Dodger Stadium

gametime 9:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

81°F

humidity 43%

wind

7 mph

out to RF

precip

mostly clear

park

LAD

open · HP→CF 28°

wind impact on total

+0.14 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.14 R/G vs neutral. _Dodger Stadium's marine layer + light winds → known suppressor. Strong Santa Ana east winds (rare) flip script_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Cade CavalliRHP · WSH	Tyler GlasnowRHP · LAD
xERA 2026	3.84	2.44
xwOBA 2026	0.303	0.243
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.003	-0.021
xERA 2025	4.13	3.33
xwOBA 2025	0.315	0.285
Outs/TB 25-26	2.05	2.89
FIP 25-26	3.65	3.39
kwERA 25-26	3.21	2.99
K% 25-26	25.4%	30.2%
BB% 25-26	7.1%	10.1%
IP 25+26 combined	201.3	142.0
ERA actual 2026	3.12	2.79
ERA (L4)	2.62	3.00
WHIP (L4)	1.08	0.75
K% (L4)	30.5%	29.5%
BB% (L4)	5.3%	2.3%
IP/gm (L4)	6.00	6.00
L4 window	08/02→08/24 (4 st)	08/25→08/30 (2 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	104 (+2)	101 (−3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	2.36 (−0.93)	1.48 (−1.43)
Arsenal RV/100	0.29	1.63

away arsenal — WSH

RV/100 0.29

4-Seam Fastball—-0.80xwOBA 0.340
Curveball—+0.90xwOBA 0.245
Sweeper—+2.20xwOBA 0.232
Sinker—+0.10xwOBA 0.349
Changeup—-1.00xwOBA 0.349
Cutter—+1.30xwOBA 0.388

home arsenal — LAD

RV/100 1.63

4-Seam Fastball—+0.70xwOBA 0.337
Curveball—+0.90xwOBA 0.135
Sinker—+3.10xwOBA 0.310
Slider—+2.60xwOBA 0.160

away · WSH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.895

Σ match

2.451

Σ FRV

-15.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	James Wood	0.417	0.350	-6.7
2	LF	Daylen Lile	0.329	0.268	+2.6
3	1B	Abimelec Ortiz	0.294	0.264	-0.3
4	SS	CJ Abrams	0.328	0.281	-11.1
5	3B	Brady House	0.334	0.270	-2.3
6	2B	Jorbit Vivas	0.299	0.246	+2.4
7	DH	José Tena	0.301	0.265	-1.6
8	C	Keibert Ruiz	0.284	0.248	+0.0
9	CF	Dylan Crews	0.309	0.258	+1.5

home · LAD vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.824

Σ match

2.782

Σ FRV

+2.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Tommy Edman	0.317	0.290	+2.4
2	1B	Freddie Freeman	0.375	0.371	+4.0
3	SS	Mookie Betts	0.329	0.319	+8.0
4	RF	Kyle Tucker	0.327	0.332	-7.2
5	DH	Teoscar Hernández	0.324	0.321	-5.5
6	C	Hunter Feduccia	0.320	0.303	+0.3
7	2B	Alex Freeland	0.285	0.282	+1.0
8	LF	Alex Call	0.279	0.289	+0.9
9	3B	Enrique Hernández	0.268	0.275	-1.0

defense · WSH catcher (Savant FRV)

Keibert Ruiz

FRV+0.0
framing+2.1
blocking-0.2
throwing-1.9

defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)

Hunter Feduccia

FRV+0.3
framing+3.3
blocking-1.0
throwing-2.0

WSH · Cade Cavalli

Last outing 2026-08-24 vs COL · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	104
Location+	—	—	96
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	2.36

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-07 → 2026-08-24. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-24; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

LAD · Tyler Glasnow

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs DET · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 2
Stuff+	—	—	101
Location+	—	—	105
Pitching+	—	—	113
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	1.48

Last 2 starts: 2026-08-25 → 2026-08-30. 0/2 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-30; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

WSH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.26–0.57]

0.098 R/PA · 0.139 R/out · worst: Riley Cornelio (5.18)

LAD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.31–0.47]

0.092 R/PA · 0.131 R/out · worst: Seth Halvorsen (5.30)

WSH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Orlando Ribalta	SETUP	SU	3.90	23.6	10.1	0.92	2/12/6	stable
Brad Lord	SETUP	MR	4.07	22.5	9.3	2.15	1/6/4	stable
Clayton Beeter	SETUP	CL	5.29	23.0	15.3	0.96	12/8/11	stable
Matt Waldron	BULK	LR	4.59	17.0	5.7	3.58	0/1/1	ramping down
Will Dion	MR	LR	3.81	28.4	6.8	1.79	0/0/6	ramping down
Riley Cornelio	MR	MR	4.98	21.5	19.6	2.04	0/0/2	ramping down
Jared Simpson	unknown	MR	1.09	37.5	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Jack Sinclair	unknown	MR	1.09	33.3	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Erik Tolman	unknown	MR	1.59	34.8	8.7	—	1/1/0	—
Luis Perales	unknown	MR	8.69	17.9	14.3	—	0/0/0	—

LAD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Tanner Scott	CLOSER	CL	2.32	30.7	5.5	0.94	20/12/21	stable
Edgardo Henriquez	SETUP	SU	2.52	29.5	10.3	1.05	1/9/5	stable
Blake Treinen	SETUP	MR	3.48	25.0	10.0	0.79	1/6/5	stable
Alex Vesia	SETUP	MR	3.51	29.5	14.8	0.76	3/18/6	stable
Jack Dreyer	MR	MR	3.44	29.6	8.8	1.01	2/10/9	stable
Brock Stewart	MR	MR	3.67	23.8	10.0	1.06	1/7/2	stable
Evan Phillips	MR	SU	4.48	27.5	6.2	1.00	0/5/3	stable
Seth Halvorsen	MOP_UP	MR	6.13	15.7	14.8	0.90	0/2/4	stable
Justin Wrobleski	SP	MR	4.29	19.8	5.5	6.02	0/0/1	ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 WSH · 6 LAD

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

WSH

5 R

10H · 0HR · 3BB · 13K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.325 · SLGe 0.417 · K% 32.5

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 6 ER · 11 K · relief 2.0 IP · 4 arms

LAD

6 R

7H · 1HR · 3BB · 11K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.333 · SLGe 0.323 · K% 30.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 13 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

WSH · standout lines

big nights

Dylan Crews (CF) · 2-4 | 2 2B, 2 K, RBI4 TB

tough nights

Abimelec Ortiz (1B) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
José Tena (DH) · 0-3 | 2 K, RBI0-for-3 · 2 K

LAD · standout lines

big nights

Tommy Edman (CF) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, 3 RBIHR

tough nights

Freddie Freeman (1B) · 0-3 | HBP, 2 K, R0-for-3 · 2 K