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today's slate

CHC @ MIA

Saturday · September 5, 2026·full·gamePk 823823free Saturday

refreshed 497h 8m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · loanDepot park

gametime 4:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

87°F

humidity 70%

wind

7 mph

out to LF

precip

22%

clear

park

MIA

retractable · HP→CF 40°

wind impact on total

+0.01 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

opener / bulk pattern

CHC: Javier Assad opens → bulk: no confident pattern

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Javier AssadRHP · CHC	Ryan GustoRHP · MIA
xERA 2026	4.51	4.48
xwOBA 2026	0.326	0.325
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.024	-0.007
xERA 2025	4.86	4.61
xwOBA 2025	0.339	0.331
Outs/TB 25-26	2.06	1.70
FIP 25-26	4.75	4.36
kwERA 25-26	4.28	3.83
K% 25-26	16.1%	20.5%
BB% 25-26	6.8%	7.5%
IP 25+26 combined	120.3	169.3
ERA actual 2026	3.46	3.86
ERA (L4)	3.10	2.41
WHIP (L4)	1.13	1.23
K% (L4)	15.0%	19.5%
BB% (L4)	5.0%	7.3%
IP/gm (L4)	5.08	4.67
L4 window	06/17→07/11 (4 st)	08/09→08/31 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	100 (+1)	98 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	6.13 (+1.73)	4.62 (+0.39)
Arsenal RV/100	0.27	0.08

away arsenal · BULK Javier Assad — CHC

RV/100 0.27

Sinker—+1.40xwOBA 0.329
4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.379
Cutter—-1.70xwOBA 0.428
Changeup—-3.30xwOBA 0.339
Curveball—+1.60xwOBA 0.161
Sweeper—+0.70xwOBA 0.130
Slider—-2.30xwOBA 0.274

home arsenal — MIA

RV/100 0.08

4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.331
Changeup—+1.10xwOBA 0.329
Sinker—-1.30xwOBA 0.339
Cutter—+2.20xwOBA 0.306
Sweeper—-0.10xwOBA 0.327
Slider—-0.90xwOBA 0.323
Curveball—-1.50xwOBA 0.309

away · CHC vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.906

Σ match

2.998

Σ FRV

+49.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0.369	0.373	+25.6
2	RF	Seiya Suzuki	0.338	0.348	+6.5
3	1B	Michael Busch	0.328	0.340	+1.6
4	3B	Alex Bregman	0.318	0.328	+5.5
5	LF	Ian Happ	0.312	0.326	+5.1
6	SS	Nico Hoerner	0.323	0.331	+8.7
7	2B	Pedro Ramírez	0.299	0.305	-0.8
8	DH	Michael Conforto	0.328	0.342	-1.9
9	C	Miguel Amaya	0.291	0.305	-1.2

home · MIA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.775

Σ match

3.027

Σ FRV

+18.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Kyle Stowers	0.331	0.346	-2.7
2	LF	Heriberto Hernández	0.354	0.363	+1.0
3	1B	Griffin Conine	0.364	0.412	-0.8
4	SS	Otto Lopez	0.322	0.373	+10.9
5	CF	Jakob Marsee	0.304	0.320	+3.1
6	RF	Owen Caissie	0.300	0.321	-8.2
7	C	Joe Mack	0.288	0.313	+9.5
8	3B	Graham Pauley	0.224	0.262	+1.8
9	2B	Javier Sanoja	0.288	0.317	+4.0

defense · CHC catcher (Savant FRV)

Miguel Amaya

FRV-1.2
framing-0.2
blocking-0.5
throwing+0.1

defense · MIA catcher (Savant FRV)

Joe Mack

FRV+9.5
framing+6.0
blocking+0.2
throwing+3.3

CHC · Javier Assad

Last outing 2026-08-12 vs WSH · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	98
Pitching+	—	—	99
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	6.13

Last 3 starts: 2026-06-24 → 2026-07-11. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-12; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

MIA · Ryan Gusto

Last outing 2026-08-31 vs WSH · 4.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	98
Location+	—	—	106
Pitching+	—	—	100
botOvr	—	—	61
SIERA	—	—	4.62

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-15 → 2026-08-31. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-31; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CHC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.37–0.50]

0.102 R/PA · 0.145 R/out · worst: Trent Thornton (4.67)

MIA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.46R / inningband [0.37–0.54]

0.107 R/PA · 0.152 R/out · worst: Josh Ekness (5.13)

CHC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Daniel Palencia	CLOSER	SU	4.42	26.1	7.6	0.88	3/0/12	stable
Jacob Webb	SETUP	CL	3.75	25.7	8.3	0.98	9/8/14	stable
Ryan Zeferjahn	SETUP	MR	3.95	31.4	13.1	1.15	4/13/15	stable
Caleb Thielbar	SETUP	MR	4.82	29.0	8.7	0.85	3/7/6	stable
Ryan Rolison	OPENER	SU	4.03	22.2	10.9	1.12	2/7/13	stable
Trent Thornton	MR	MR	5.07	15.4	9.3	1.11	3/5/9	ramping down
Aaron Civale	SP	MR	4.67	18.4	6.9	4.67	2/0/0	ramping down
Colin Rea	SP	LR	4.80	17.4	8.1	5.03	1/0/1	ramping up

MIA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Calvin Faucher	SETUP	CL	2.92	25.1	12.5	0.98	3/15/7	stable
Michael Petersen	SETUP	SU	3.40	28.6	11.1	1.06	1/23/4	stable
Dax Fulton	BULK	MR	3.27	21.4	15.7	2.50	0/0/3	ramping down
Cade Gibson	MR	MR	4.16	18.9	10.3	1.28	0/4/7	stable
Victor Vodnik	MR	MR	4.28	16.7	12.5	1.08	4/6/12	stable
Tyler Zuber	MR	SU	4.56	24.6	4.3	0.87	1/8/5	stable
Josh Ekness	MR	MR	4.93	16.7	14.4	0.89	1/2/2	stable
Jack Ralston	unknown	MR	5.30	15.4	11.5	—	0/2/0	—
Bradley Blalock	unknown	LR	6.42	21.4	7.1	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 CHC · 5 MIA

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CHC

6 R

13H · 1HR · 6BB · 9K · 26LOB

OBPe 0.455 · SLGe 0.500 · K% 20.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 7 K · relief 4.3 IP · 5 arms

MIA

5 R

6H · 2HR · 7BB · 7K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.375 · SLGe 0.452 · K% 17.5

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 9 K · relief 4.3 IP · 5 arms

CHC · standout lines

big nights

Nico Hoerner (SS) · 3-5 | K, RBI, CS3 H
Michael Conforto (DH) · 2-3 | HR, K, RBIHR

tough nights

Pedro Ramírez (2B) · 0-5 | K0-for-5

MIA · standout lines

big nights

Kyle Stowers (DH) · 2-4 | HR, BB, KHR
Griffin Conine (1B) · 1-2 | HR, 3 BB, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Heriberto Hernández (LF) · 0-4 | HBP, 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K