Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

SF @ NYM

Saturday · September 5, 2026·full·gamePk 823577free Saturday

refreshed 497h 10m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Citi Field

gametime 4:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

79°F

humidity 48%

wind

9 mph

in from RF

precip

mostly clear

park

NYM

open · HP→CF 21°

wind impact on total

-0.23 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.23 R/G vs neutral. _Citi Field's big CF dimensions + frequent NE winds = pitcher's park even in summer_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Anthony MolinaRHP · SF	Zac ThorntonLHP · NYM
xERA 2026	4.42	4.60
xwOBA 2026	0.323	0.329
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.043	-0.031
xERA 2025	7.44	—
xwOBA 2025	0.405	—
Outs/TB 25-26	1.40	2.16
FIP 25-26	6.10	3.89
kwERA 25-26	4.01	3.88
K% 25-26	15.3%	18.4%
BB% 25-26	3.7%	5.7%
IP 25+26 combined	49.0	61.3
ERA actual 2026	3.77	2.93
ERA (L4)	2.89	3.68
WHIP (L4)	0.86	1.27
K% (L4)	20.0%	19.6%
BB% (L4)	2.9%	2.2%
IP/gm (L4)	4.67	5.50
L4 window	08/25→08/31 (2 outs)	08/12→08/30 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	99 (−1)	99 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.47 (+1.27)	3.65 (−0.60)
Arsenal RV/100	0.63	0.66

away arsenal — SF

RV/100 0.63

4-Seam Fastball—+0.70xwOBA 0.343
Curveball—+0.40xwOBA 0.256

home arsenal — NYM

RV/100 0.66

Cutter—+0.70xwOBA 0.362
4-Seam Fastball—+0.80xwOBA 0.329
Sweeper—+1.70xwOBA 0.215
Sinker—+2.30xwOBA 0.369
Slider—-0.90xwOBA 0.379
Changeup—-2.00xwOBA 0.322
Curveball—-2.30xwOBA 0.220

away · SF vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.668

Σ match

2.826

Σ FRV

-9.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Jonah Cox	0.284	0.297	+1.3
2	1B	Rafael Devers	0.337	0.356	-4.7
3	DH	Bryce Eldridge	0.357	0.362	+0.4
4	2B	Osleivis Basabe	0.286	0.302	-3.8
5	LF	Turner Hill	0.368	0.368	-1.0
6	C	Andrew Knizner	0.266	0.296	-2.4
7	3B	Shay Whitcomb	0.234	0.279	-0.3
8	RF	Grant McCray	0.299	0.314	-2.2
9	SS	Christian Koss	0.237	0.252	+2.9

home · NYM vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.982

Σ match

3.196

Σ FRV

+0.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Francisco Lindor	0.340	0.354	-0.9
2	LF	Juan Soto	0.419	0.469	-3.3
3	DH	Bo Bichette	0.326	0.336	-1.8
4	RF	Carson Benge	0.338	0.353	+5.8
5	1B	Jared Young	0.308	0.331	+0.1
6	2B	Marcus Semien	0.305	0.342	-5.5
7	CF	A.J. Ewing	0.312	0.353	+6.6
8	C	Francisco Alvarez	0.329	0.333	-0.8
9	3B	Brett Baty	0.305	0.325	-0.1

defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)

Andrew Knizner

FRV-2.4
framing-1.5
blocking-0.4
throwing-0.5

defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)

Francisco Alvarez

FRV-0.8
framing+0.8
blocking-1.7
throwing+0.1

SF · Anthony Molina

Last outing 2026-08-31 vs ATL · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 2
Stuff+	—	—	99
Location+	—	—	106
Pitching+	—	—	106
botOvr	—	—	47
SIERA	—	—	5.47

Last 2 outings: 2026-08-25 → 2026-08-31. 0/2 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-31; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

NYM · Zac Thornton

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs HOU · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	99
Location+	—	—	98
Pitching+	—	—	96
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	3.65

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-18 → 2026-08-30. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-30; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SF · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.37–0.52]

0.104 R/PA · 0.147 R/out · worst: Jason Foley (4.41)

NYM · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.30–0.46]

0.089 R/PA · 0.127 R/out · worst: Justin Hagenman (4.40)

SF

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Joel Kuhnel	SETUP	CL	5.41	14.0	7.6	1.01	6/5/16	stable
Dylan Smith	MR	CL	3.34	29.7	10.9	0.88	4/7/5	stable
Jason Foley	MR	MR	3.52	16.4	8.2	1.00	0/2/0	insufficient data
Carson Seymour	MR	SU	4.68	17.5	9.3	2.17	1/5/0	insufficient data
Reiver Sanmartin	MR	MR	4.70	17.9	7.7	1.67	0/3/1	insufficient data
Trent Harris	unknown	SU	1.70	32.1	10.7	—	0/3/0	—
Braxton Roxby	unknown	MR	2.59	18.2	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Cesar Perdomo	unknown	MR	5.09	26.7	6.7	—	0/0/0	—

NYM

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kodai Senga	BULK	CL	5.98	25.4	14.8	3.39	5/0/1	ramping down
Austin Warren	OPENER	MR	4.32	25.8	10.8	1.35	0/1/9	stable
Daniel Duarte	MR	SU	2.90	26.8	6.2	1.67	2/6/2	insufficient data
Jonathan Pintaro	MR	MR	5.05	25.3	13.1	2.47	0/1/2	ramping up
Chris Devenski	MOP_UP	MR	7.70	13.6	0.0	0.78	0/1/1	insufficient data
Nate Lavender	unknown	SU	1.59	31.8	6.8	—	0/8/0	—
Justin Hagenman	unknown	LR	2.75	16.7	8.3	—	0/0/0	—
Jefry Yan	unknown	MR	4.46	26.3	17.5	—	0/1/0	—
Dedniel Núñez	unknown	MR	4.54	23.4	0.0	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

9 SF · 5 NYM

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SF

9 R

10H · 6HR · 2BB · 8K · 2LOB

OBPe 0.324 · SLGe 0.829 · K% 21.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 9 K · relief 4.0 IP · 6 arms

NYM

5 R

5H · 1HR · 4BB · 9K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.243 · SLGe 0.273 · K% 24.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 9 ER · 8 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms

SF · standout lines

big nights

Rafael Devers (1B) · 2-4 | 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R2-HR night · 8 TB
Osleivis Basabe (2B) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, 2 RBIHR
Grant McCray (RF) · 2-4 | HR, RBI, 2 RHR
Christian Koss (SS) · 2-4 | 2 HR, 3 RBI, 2 R2-HR night · 8 TB

tough nights

Turner Hill (LF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Andrew Knizner (C) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

NYM · standout lines

big nights

A.J. Ewing (CF) · 1-2 | HR, 2 BB, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Francisco Lindor (SS) · 0-5 | K0-for-5
Juan Soto (LF) · 0-40-for-4
Bo Bichette (DH) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K