Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

ATL @ PHI

Saturday · September 5, 2026·full·gamePk 823419free Saturday

refreshed 494h 18m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Citizens Bank Park

gametime 6:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

80°F

humidity 44%

wind

9 mph

in from RF

precip

clear

park

PHI

open · HP→CF 16°

wind impact on total

-0.18 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.18 R/G vs neutral. _Open bowl + short porches both sides + warm SW summer wind out to RF = launching pad_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Martín PérezLHP · ATL	Zack WheelerRHP · PHI
xERA 2026	4.54	3.04
xwOBA 2026	0.327	0.271
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.034	0.018
xERA 2025	5.37	2.49
xwOBA 2025	0.354	0.247
Outs/TB 25-26	2.33	2.28
FIP 25-26	4.20	3.30
kwERA 25-26	4.36	2.42
K% 25-26	18.6%	31.5%
BB% 25-26	9.9%	6.7%
IP 25+26 combined	177.0	280.0
ERA actual 2026	3.05	3.31
ERA (L4)	2.50	6.64
WHIP (L4)	1.44	1.92
K% (L4)	13.0%	23.5%
BB% (L4)	11.7%	17.3%
IP/gm (L4)	4.50	5.08
L4 window	08/06→08/22 (4 st)	08/07→08/30 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	77 (−10)	106 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.36 (−0.30)	4.92 (+1.65)
Arsenal RV/100	0.51	0.67

away arsenal — ATL

RV/100 0.51

Sinker—+0.80xwOBA 0.355
Changeup—+1.10xwOBA 0.277
Cutter—-0.20xwOBA 0.355
Curveball—+0.90xwOBA 0.330
4-Seam Fastball—-2.90xwOBA 0.372

home arsenal — PHI

RV/100 0.67

4-Seam Fastball—+0.60xwOBA 0.282
Sinker—+1.40xwOBA 0.288
Split-Finger—+1.10xwOBA 0.240
Sweeper—+0.00xwOBA 0.268
Cutter—+0.10xwOBA 0.340
Curveball—+0.70xwOBA 0.175

away · ATL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.830

Σ match

2.505

Σ FRV

+12.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	C	Drake Baldwin	0.367	0.337	-0.4
2	RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0.358	0.306	-3.6
3	1B	Matt Olson	0.356	0.310	+7.0
4	CF	Michael Harris II	0.344	0.306	+10.2
5	LF	Mauricio Dubón	0.304	0.265	+5.0
6	2B	Ozzie Albies	0.285	0.254	-2.3
7	DH	Dominic Smith	0.298	0.267	-0.3
8	3B	Austin Riley	0.297	0.259	-1.3
9	SS	Ha-Seong Kim	0.221	0.201	-1.9

home · PHI vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.948

Σ match

3.132

Σ FRV

-4.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Kyle Schwarber	0.360	0.421	-0.8
2	SS	Trea Turner	0.294	0.332	-8.7
3	RF	Bryce Harper	0.393	0.400	-9.4
4	2B	Luis Arraez	0.306	0.317	+9.3
5	1B	Alec Bohm	0.323	0.345	-6.2
6	LF	Edmundo Sosa	0.338	0.329	+1.0
7	C	J.T. Realmuto	0.324	0.353	+1.5
8	3B	Bryson Stott	0.328	0.355	+5.3
9	CF	Derek Hill	0.282	0.279	+3.3

defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)

Drake Baldwin

FRV-0.4
framing+2.5
blocking+0.2
throwing-3.1

defense · PHI catcher (Savant FRV)

J.T. Realmuto

FRV+1.5
framing+0.5
blocking-1.0
throwing+2.1

ATL · Martín Pérez

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs MIL · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	77
Location+	—	—	102
Pitching+	—	—	85
botOvr	—	—	50
SIERA	—	—	4.36

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-22; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

PHI · Zack Wheeler

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs LAA · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	106
Location+	—	—	99
Pitching+	—	—	107
botOvr	—	—	60
SIERA	—	—	4.92

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-18 → 2026-08-30. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-30; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

ATL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.35R / inningband [0.27–0.43]

0.082 R/PA · 0.117 R/out · worst: Elieser Hernández (4.78)

PHI · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.37R / inningband [0.31–0.42]

0.087 R/PA · 0.123 R/out · worst: Orion Kerkering (4.02)

ATL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Raisel Iglesias	CLOSER	CL	3.24	25.7	7.6	1.04	30/0/29	stable
Dylan Lee	SETUP	SU	2.04	31.4	6.4	0.97	0/30/1	stable
Didier Fuentes	SETUP	SU	2.38	31.1	7.4	1.20	3/16/4	ramping down
Dylan Dodd	SETUP	MR	3.27	26.7	8.1	1.18	1/14/4	ramping down
Brent Suter	OPENER	MR	3.59	20.4	6.9	1.54	0/3/13	stable
Victor Mederos	MR	MR	2.95	23.3	9.2	1.87	1/1/4	ramping up
Elieser Hernández	unknown	LR	4.64	17.9	12.8	—	1/0/0	—
Ray Kerr	unknown	MR	4.89	18.5	3.7	—	0/1/0	—

PHI

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jhoan Duran	CLOSER	CL	1.38	34.0	4.4	0.94	29/0/35	stable
Jonathan Bowlan	SETUP	SU	3.03	31.7	6.7	0.93	2/12/2	stable
Brooks Raley	SETUP	MR	3.35	24.0	8.0	0.89	1/16/5	stable
José Alvarado	SETUP	MR	3.81	26.4	10.0	0.85	1/13/3	stable
Orion Kerkering	SETUP	SU	3.87	23.5	11.9	0.94	2/17/5	stable
Tim Mayza	OPENER	MR	3.22	24.5	6.2	1.15	0/1/9	stable
Chase Shugart	MR	LR	5.09	27.7	9.4	1.13	0/0/10	stable
Alex McFarlane	unknown	MR	2.47	25.0	11.4	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 ATL · 4 PHI

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

ATL

2 R

5H · 2HR · 2BB · 12K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.212 · SLGe 0.355 · K% 36.4

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 4 ER · 6 K · relief 4.3 IP · 3 arms

PHI

4 R

9H · 1HR · 5BB · 6K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.368 · SLGe 0.424 · K% 15.8

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 12 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

ATL · standout lines

big nights

Ronald Acuña Jr. (RF) · 2-4 | HR, K, RBIHR
Austin Riley (3B) · 1-3 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR

tough nights

Matt Olson (1B) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Michael Harris II (CF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Mauricio Dubón (LF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

PHI · standout lines

big nights

Kyle Schwarber (DH) · 2-3 | HR, 2 BB, 2 RBIHR
Derek Hill (CF) · 2-4 | 3B, K, R4 TB

tough nights

Edmundo Sosa (LF) · 0-40-for-4
J.T. Realmuto (C) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K, RBI0-for-3 · 2 K
Bryson Stott (3B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K