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today's slate

LAA @ PIT

Saturday · September 5, 2026·full·gamePk 823335free Saturday

refreshed 494h 20m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · PNC Park

gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

76°F

humidity 78%

wind

4 mph

cross RF to LF

precip

overcast

park

PIT

open · HP→CF 115°

wind impact on total

+0.01 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Yusei KikuchiLHP · LAA	Braxton AshcraftRHP · PIT
xERA 2026	5.33	3.42
xwOBA 2026	0.351	0.287
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.009	0.002
xERA 2025	4.48	3.43
xwOBA 2025	0.327	0.289
Outs/TB 25-26	1.79	2.18
FIP 25-26	4.27	3.30
kwERA 25-26	3.82	3.14
K% 25-26	22.5%	25.1%
BB% 25-26	9.3%	6.3%
IP 25+26 combined	221.3	230.0
ERA actual 2026	5.65	3.59
ERA (L4)	5.25	3.00
WHIP (L4)	1.25	0.92
K% (L4)	20.0%	15.4%
BB% (L4)	4.0%	3.3%
IP/gm (L4)	6.00	6.00
L4 window	08/23→08/30 (2 st)	08/06→08/30 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	94 (−4)	111 (+4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.33 (+1.20)	3.48 (+0.12)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.54	0.63

away arsenal — LAA

RV/100 -0.54

4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.292
Slider—-1.80xwOBA 0.367
Split-Finger—-0.80xwOBA 0.367
Curveball—+3.70xwOBA 0.263
Cutter—-4.50xwOBA 0.581

home arsenal — PIT

RV/100 0.63

4-Seam Fastball—-1.00xwOBA 0.334
Curveball—+2.10xwOBA 0.224
Slider—+0.00xwOBA 0.285
Sinker—+2.50xwOBA 0.301
Split-Finger—-0.40xwOBA 0.294

away · LAA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.657

Σ match

2.437

Σ FRV

-8.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Zach Neto	0.304	0.283	-2.9
2	CF	Mike Trout	0.376	0.327	-2.9
3	LF	Wade Meckler	0.312	0.288	+2.0
4	1B	Vaughn Grissom	0.317	0.288	-5.0
5	C	Moisés Ballesteros	0.290	0.261	-1.5
6	DH	Christian Moore	0.250	0.259	-1.5
7	RF	Josh Lowe	0.288	0.256	+5.0
8	3B	Denzer Guzman	0.264	0.236	+0.1
9	2B	Adam Frazier	0.256	0.237	-1.5

home · PIT vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.862

Σ match

3.120

Σ FRV

-16.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Konnor Griffin	0.303	0.330	-4.3
2	RF	Esmerlyn Valdez	0.328	0.373	-2.7
3	LF	Bryan Reynolds	0.355	0.384	-3.6
4	DH	Oneil Cruz	0.355	0.382	+0.9
5	2B	Nick Gonzales	0.328	0.362	-9.2
6	C	Rafael Flores Jr.	0.333	0.352	+0.1
7	3B	Jared Triolo	0.289	0.305	+0.1
8	CF	Jake Mangum	0.284	0.318	+2.6
9	1B	Nick Yorke	0.287	0.314	-0.7

defense · LAA catcher (Savant FRV)

Moisés Ballesteros

FRV-1.5
framing-1.2
blocking-0.5
throwing+0.5

defense · PIT catcher (Savant FRV)

Rafael Flores Jr.

FRV+0.1
framing+0.3
blocking+0.2
throwing-1.0

LAA · Yusei Kikuchi

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs PHI · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 2
Stuff+	—	—	94
Location+	—	—	91
Pitching+	—	—	86
botOvr	—	—	48
SIERA	—	—	5.33

Last 2 starts: 2026-08-23 → 2026-08-30. 0/2 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-30; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

PIT · Braxton Ashcraft

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs STL · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	111
Location+	—	—	110
Pitching+	—	—	115
botOvr	—	—	63
SIERA	—	—	3.48

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-18 → 2026-08-30. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

LAA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.30–0.47]

0.090 R/PA · 0.127 R/out · worst: Luke Murphy (4.53)

PIT · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.34–0.47]

0.096 R/PA · 0.136 R/out · worst: Khristian Curtis (5.09)

LAA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Samy Natera Jr.	MR	SU	1.87	38.8	10.3	1.16	3/4/3	stable
Tayler Saucedo	MR	MR	2.38	28.6	4.8	0.56	0/5/0	stable
José Fermin	MR	MR	3.90	27.7	10.2	1.11	1/7/7	stable
Ryan Watson	MR	SU	4.15	19.6	7.9	1.61	2/4/21	stable
Mitch Farris	MR	LR	4.95	24.3	11.4	2.12	1/1/6	stable
Ben Joyce	unknown	CL	2.23	36.1	13.9	—	3/2/0	—
Blake Weiman	unknown	MR	2.70	20.8	2.1	—	0/2/0	—
Luke Murphy	unknown	MR	3.39	23.6	16.4	—	0/4/0	—
Sammy Peralta	unknown	MR	5.50	28.3	8.3	—	0/1/0	—

PIT

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Gregory Soto	CLOSER	SU	3.27	27.9	9.7	0.99	14/10/21	stable
Luke Weaver	SETUP	SU	2.67	26.7	7.1	1.05	1/18/4	stable
Yohan Ramírez	SETUP	MR	3.60	27.2	13.3	1.28	2/8/8	stable
Isaac Mattson	SETUP	MR	3.85	20.5	10.8	0.96	0/8/7	stable
Khristian Curtis	BULK	LR	3.45	17.9	15.4	5.00	0/0/0	insufficient data
Mason Montgomery	OPENER	CL	2.27	38.1	9.2	0.97	9/9/7	stable
Lake Bachar	OPENER	MR	4.63	25.2	10.1	1.53	2/1/10	stable
Wilber Dotel	MR	MR	3.15	25.4	10.8	2.13	0/3/1	stable
Camilo Doval	MOP_UP	MR	4.52	23.1	12.4	0.90	1/6/10	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 LAA · 1 PIT

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

LAA

6 R

12H · 1HR · 0BB · 13K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.325 · SLGe 0.474 · K% 32.5

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 9 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

PIT

1 R

8H · 1HR · 4BB · 9K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.333 · SLGe 0.406 · K% 25.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 13 K · relief 4.0 IP · 3 arms

LAA · standout lines

big nights

Zach Neto (SS) · 3-5 | 2 K, RBI, R3 H
Wade Meckler (LF) · 2-5 | 2 2B, 2 RBI, R4 TB
Josh Lowe (RF) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR

tough nights

Christian Moore (DH) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

PIT · standout lines

big nights

Bryan Reynolds (LF) · 3-3 | HR, BB, RBIHR · 3 H

tough nights

Konnor Griffin (SS) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Esmerlyn Valdez (RF) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Jake Mangum (CF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4