Baseball Daily

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today's slate

NYY @ SD

Saturday · September 5, 2026·full·gamePk 823257free Saturday

refreshed 494h 16m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Petco Park

gametime 7:15 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

86°F

humidity 38%

wind

8 mph

in from RF

precip

clear

park

open · HP→CF 0°

wind impact on total

-0.08 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Carlos RodónLHP · NYY	Robbie RayLHP · SD
xERA 2026	4.06	4.63
xwOBA 2026	0.311	0.330
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.036	-0.021
xERA 2025	3.33	3.71
xwOBA 2025	0.285	0.300
Outs/TB 25-26	2.63	2.15
FIP 25-26	3.76	4.24
kwERA 25-26	3.52	3.95
K% 25-26	25.7%	22.7%
BB% 25-26	10.0%	10.6%
IP 25+26 combined	254.3	331.3
ERA actual 2026	3.20	3.14
ERA (L4)	2.45	2.53
WHIP (L4)	1.15	1.12
K% (L4)	22.1%	20.0%
BB% (L4)	13.0%	12.9%
IP/gm (L4)	4.58	5.33
L4 window	06/23→08/23 (4 st)	08/12→08/30 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	106 (−2)	91 (−3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.81 (+0.46)	5.00 (+0.10)
Arsenal RV/100	0.38	0.35

away arsenal — NYY

RV/100 0.38

4-Seam Fastball—+1.00xwOBA 0.395
Slider—-0.40xwOBA 0.236
Changeup—-1.00xwOBA 0.303
Sinker—+1.30xwOBA 0.247

home arsenal — SD

RV/100 0.35

4-Seam Fastball—-0.30xwOBA 0.377
Slider—+0.00xwOBA 0.334
Changeup—+1.60xwOBA 0.253
Sinker—-0.50xwOBA 0.397
Curveball—+1.80xwOBA 0.237

away · NYY vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.851

Σ match

2.998

Σ FRV

+0.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	1B	Paul Goldschmidt	0.312	0.338	+6.0
2	LF	Cody Bellinger	0.342	0.370	+8.7
3	2B	Amed Rosario	0.315	0.309	-7.6
4	DH	Ben Rice	0.375	0.410	-4.6
5	RF	Heliot Ramos	0.324	0.344	-5.5
6	SS	George Lombard Jr.	0.286	0.298	-0.9
7	CF	Spencer Jones	0.327	0.340	-2.2
8	3B	José Caballero	0.279	0.294	+1.2
9	C	Austin Wells	0.291	0.295	+5.4

home · SD vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.895

Σ match

3.036

Σ FRV

+31.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.374	0.400	+5.3
2	SS	Xander Bogaerts	0.322	0.349	+3.2
3	3B	Manny Machado	0.332	0.356	+4.8
4	1B	Ty France	0.332	0.336	+8.6
5	CF	Jackson Merrill	0.336	0.340	+9.3
6	DH	Luis Campusano	0.333	0.342	-6.0
7	C	Freddy Fermin	0.275	0.282	+9.7
8	2B	Jake Cronenworth	0.274	0.300	-2.4
9	LF	Samad Taylor	0.317	0.331	-0.7

defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)

Austin Wells

FRV+5.4
framing+5.5
blocking+1.3
throwing-1.4

defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)

Freddy Fermin

FRV+9.7
framing+3.2
blocking+2.0
throwing+4.6

NYY · Carlos Rodón

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs TOR · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	106
Location+	—	—	88
Pitching+	—	—	95
botOvr	—	—	50
SIERA	—	—	4.81

Last 3 starts: 2026-06-28 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SD · Robbie Ray

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs TB · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	91
Location+	—	—	92
Pitching+	—	—	86
botOvr	—	—	41
SIERA	—	—	5.00

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-18 → 2026-08-30. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-30; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

NYY · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.36–0.52]

0.104 R/PA · 0.147 R/out · worst: Tim Hill (4.72)

SD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.34–0.46]

0.095 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Wandy Peralta (4.50)

NYY

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
David Bednar	CLOSER	CL	2.45	27.7	7.2	1.10	31/0/35	stable
Brent Headrick	SETUP	SU	2.24	30.1	7.3	1.01	0/24/6	stable
John Schreiber	SETUP	MR	4.84	17.5	10.7	0.91	1/14/5	stable
Tim Hill	SETUP	MR	5.39	10.8	5.2	0.84	2/10/6	stable
Paul Blackburn	OPENER	SU	3.70	21.3	9.2	1.53	1/10/13	stable
Ryan Yarbrough	MR	MR	3.77	17.3	9.3	1.59	3/1/14	stable
Michael Fulmer	unknown	MR	4.31	25.0	9.4	—	0/2/0	—

SD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Mason Miller	CLOSER	CL	1.00	48.0	8.9	1.04	32/0/34	stable
Adrian Morejon	SETUP	SU	2.43	30.0	7.4	1.16	2/22/6	stable
Kyle Hart	SETUP	MR	3.22	23.2	8.0	1.40	0/7/5	stable
Bradgley Rodriguez	OPENER	SU	2.41	26.2	6.9	1.09	2/11/5	stable
Wandy Peralta	OPENER	MR	4.04	15.4	7.9	1.17	0/4/14	stable
Yuki Matsui	MR	MR	4.13	27.1	14.2	1.35	0/8/5	ramping down
David Morgan	MR	MR	4.23	23.5	13.4	1.22	0/1/5	stable
Jhony Brito	MR	MR	5.52	21.4	3.6	1.78	0/1/1	insufficient data
Griffin Canning	SP	LR	4.84	22.4	10.2	4.24	0/1/0	ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 NYY · 1 SD

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

NYY

5 R

9H · 0HR · 7BB · 7K · 22LOB

OBPe 0.386 · SLGe 0.303 · K% 15.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 12 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

SD

1 R

3H · 1HR · 6BB · 12K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.250 · SLGe 0.200 · K% 33.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 7 K · relief 6.7 IP · 5 arms

NYY · standout lines

big nights

Ben Rice (DH) · 3-3 | 2 BB, 2 R3 H

SD · standout lines

big nights

Manny Machado (3B) · 1-2 | HR, 2 BB, RBIHR

tough nights

Ty France (1B) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Samad Taylor (LF) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K