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today's slate

ATH @ SEA

Saturday · September 5, 2026·full·gamePk 823094free Saturday

refreshed 492h 38m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · T-Mobile Park

gametime 9:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

63°F

humidity 71%

roof

likely closed

wind irrelevant

precip

13%

mostly clear

park

SEA

retractable · HP→CF 36°

wind impact on total

neutralnone roof_closed

Roof closed — wind has no impact tonight.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Jeffrey SpringsLHP · ATH	George KirbyRHP · SEA
xERA 2026	4.92	3.95
xwOBA 2026	0.339	0.307
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.036	0.029
xERA 2025	4.30	3.88
xwOBA 2025	0.321	0.306
Outs/TB 25-26	1.68	1.85
FIP 25-26	5.33	3.60
kwERA 25-26	4.14	3.34
K% 25-26	18.7%	22.8%
BB% 25-26	8.2%	5.6%
IP 25+26 combined	294.0	278.7
ERA actual 2026	6.37	4.19
ERA (L4)	7.11	4.84
WHIP (L4)	1.74	1.48
K% (L4)	13.5%	15.5%
BB% (L4)	12.4%	8.2%
IP/gm (L4)	4.75	5.58
L4 window	07/31→08/30 (4 st)	08/08→08/31 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	95 (−2)	100 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	7.11 (+2.21)	4.60 (+0.55)
Arsenal RV/100	-1.54	-0.24

away arsenal — ATH

RV/100 -1.54

4-Seam Fastball—-1.70xwOBA 0.362
Changeup—-1.10xwOBA 0.269
Slider—-1.60xwOBA 0.384
Sweeper—-2.30xwOBA 0.409
Cutter—-0.90xwOBA 0.227

home arsenal — SEA

RV/100 -0.24

4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.316
Sweeper—-0.10xwOBA 0.276
Sinker—+0.00xwOBA 0.299
Curveball—-2.20xwOBA 0.313
Changeup—-2.00xwOBA 0.374
Cutter—+1.40xwOBA 0.398
Split-Finger—-3.60xwOBA 0.337

away · ATH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.616

Σ match

2.636

Σ FRV

-24.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Henry Bolte	0.312	0.304	+4.6
2	1B	Jeff McNeil	0.307	0.314	-3.0
3	3B	Zack Gelof	0.313	0.302	-1.7
4	RF	Lawrence Butler	0.321	0.306	-10.7
5	C	Jonah Heim	0.292	0.295	-5.3
6	DH	Max Muncy	0.287	0.283	-4.8
7	2B	Donovan Walton	0.331	0.332	-5.6
8	SS	Alika Williams	0.248	0.257	+1.0
9	CF	Denzel Clarke	0.205	0.243	+0.8

home · SEA vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.906

Σ match

3.186

Σ FRV

-26.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Randy Arozarena	0.349	0.371	-6.5
2	RF	Dominic Canzone	0.357	0.407	+0.4
3	CF	Julio Rodríguez	0.337	0.383	-0.6
4	C	Cal Raleigh	0.312	0.329	-2.2
5	1B	Josh Naylor	0.313	0.344	+2.2
6	SS	J.P. Crawford	0.327	0.361	-7.2
7	DH	Taylor Ward	0.333	0.358	-1.2
8	2B	Cole Young	0.315	0.335	-3.0
9	3B	Weston Wilson	0.263	0.298	-8.6

defense · ATH catcher (Savant FRV)

Jonah Heim

FRV-5.3
framing-0.8
blocking-2.1
throwing-1.4

defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)

Cal Raleigh

FRV-2.2
framing-2.7
blocking+2.6
throwing-2.1

ATH · Jeffrey Springs

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs BAL · 4.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	95
Location+	—	—	87
Pitching+	—	—	85
botOvr	—	—	50
SIERA	—	—	7.11

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-19 → 2026-08-30. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-30; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SEA · George Kirby

Last outing 2026-08-31 vs BOS · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	120
Pitching+	—	—	117
botOvr	—	—	59
SIERA	—	—	4.60

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-14 → 2026-08-31. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-31; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

ATH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.37–0.53]

0.106 R/PA · 0.150 R/out · worst: Geoff Hartlieb (5.56)

SEA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.38–0.46]

0.099 R/PA · 0.141 R/out · worst: Cooper Criswell (4.14)

ATH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Luis Medina	SETUP	SU	3.75	28.6	12.1	1.38	0/10/10	stable
Hogan Harris	SETUP	CL	3.79	29.7	13.8	0.93	15/12/13	stable
Brady Basso	MR	MR	3.27	16.6	3.4	1.22	0/3/0	ramping up
Geoff Hartlieb	MR	MR	4.53	10.7	12.0	2.13	0/2/3	ramping down
Elvis Alvarado	MR	CL	4.57	28.6	11.6	1.08	5/9/11	stable
Seth Johnson	MR	MR	5.04	24.5	16.0	1.13	0/0/4	stable
Chris Roycroft	MR	MR	6.85	14.3	9.5	1.28	1/1/6	ramping up
Yunior Tur	MR	MR	10.52	21.4	11.9	2.00	0/0/0	insufficient data
Scott Blewett	unknown	MR	2.14	22.4	7.5	—	0/2/0	—

SEA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Andrés Muñoz	CLOSER	CL	2.89	38.3	9.3	0.93	24/0/29	stable
Eduard Bazardo	SETUP	MR	4.01	23.4	7.8	0.94	0/26/2	stable
José A. Ferrer	SETUP	SU	4.02	17.6	6.5	0.89	3/13/7	stable
Gabe Speier	SETUP	MR	4.08	21.6	8.6	0.82	1/18/5	stable
Seranthony Domínguez	SETUP	MR	5.01	25.2	13.3	0.89	12/6/18	stable
Cooper Criswell	MR	LR	3.81	18.0	7.5	1.18	1/3/12	stable
Michael Rucker	MR	MR	4.03	25.8	8.6	1.05	0/1/6	stable
Carlos Vargas	unknown	MR	3.57	25.0	5.6	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 ATH · 2 SEA

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

ATH

6 R

9H · 2HR · 1BB · 7K · 8LOB

OBPe 0.278 · SLGe 0.486 · K% 19.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 9 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

SEA

2 R

6H · 0HR · 3BB · 9K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.278 · SLGe 0.219 · K% 25.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 7 K · relief 2.3 IP · 3 arms

ATH · standout lines

big nights

Lawrence Butler (RF) · 1-4 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR
Max Muncy (DH) · 2-4 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Denzel Clarke (CF) · 0-40-for-4

SEA · standout lines

big nights

Cal Raleigh (C) · 3-4 | 2B, K, R3 H · 4 TB

tough nights

Julio Rodríguez (CF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Josh Naylor (1B) · 0-40-for-4
Weston Wilson (3B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4