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today's slate

TB @ TEX

Saturday · September 5, 2026·full·gamePk 822850free Saturday

refreshed 494h 17m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Globe Life Field

gametime 7:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

97°F

humidity 41%

wind

11 mph

cross LF to RF

precip

clear

park

TEX

retractable · HP→CF 7°

wind impact on total

neutralnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Drew RasmussenRHP · TB	Jacob deGromRHP · TEX
xERA 2026	3.13	3.52
xwOBA 2026	0.275	0.291
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.026	-0.009
xERA 2025	3.48	3.36
xwOBA 2025	0.291	0.286
Outs/TB 25-26	2.54	2.26
FIP 25-26	3.37	3.39
kwERA 25-26	3.21	2.69
K% 25-26	23.8%	28.6%
BB% 25-26	5.5%	6.0%
IP 25+26 combined	296.3	310.0
ERA actual 2026	2.95	4.00
ERA (L4)	4.09	6.63
WHIP (L4)	1.05	1.47
K% (L4)	21.3%	26.5%
BB% (L4)	5.6%	13.3%
IP/gm (L4)	5.50	4.75
L4 window	08/12→08/30 (4 st)	08/01→08/31 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	113 (+4)	110 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.19 (+0.91)	5.62 (+2.47)
Arsenal RV/100	1.36	0.75

away arsenal — TB

RV/100 1.36

4-Seam Fastball—+0.80xwOBA 0.285
Cutter—+0.90xwOBA 0.294
Sinker—+2.50xwOBA 0.260
Changeup—+2.00xwOBA 0.205
Curveball—+2.60xwOBA 0.267
Sweeper—-2.20xwOBA 0.402

home arsenal — TEX

RV/100 0.75

4-Seam Fastball—+0.00xwOBA 0.360
Slider—+2.30xwOBA 0.234
Changeup—+0.20xwOBA 0.248
Curveball—-1.10xwOBA 0.252
Sinker—-1.80xwOBA 0.352

away · TB vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.772

Σ match

2.600

Σ FRV

+3.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Yandy Díaz	0.355	0.336	—
2	1B	Jonathan Aranda	0.349	0.314	-0.5
3	3B	Junior Caminero	0.362	0.351	-9.0
4	C	Liam Hicks	0.315	0.294	+1.6
5	LF	Chandler Simpson	0.261	0.250	+3.2
6	RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	0.311	0.289	+6.0
7	CF	Cedric Mullins	0.266	0.247	+9.2
8	2B	Richie Palacios	0.304	0.299	-4.7
9	SS	Taylor Walls	0.249	0.221	-2.5

home · TEX vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.742

Σ match

2.523

Σ FRV

+17.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Joc Pederson	0.340	0.326	-2.2
2	SS	Corey Seager	0.352	0.321	-0.3
3	LF	Wyatt Langford	0.315	0.272	+3.5
4	RF	Brandon Nimmo	0.354	0.311	-4.5
5	2B	Ezequiel Duran	0.307	0.282	+13.5
6	1B	Jake Burger	0.311	0.287	+4.4
7	CF	Evan Carter	0.277	0.242	+6.4
8	3B	Cody Freeman	0.235	0.243	+1.1
9	C	Danny Jansen	0.251	0.238	-4.0

defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)

Liam Hicks

FRV+1.6
framing+0.1
blocking-0.3
throwing+0.9

defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)

Danny Jansen

FRV-4.0
framing-5.0
blocking+1.7
throwing-0.8

TB · Drew Rasmussen

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs SD · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	113
Location+	—	—	103
Pitching+	—	—	109
botOvr	—	—	59
SIERA	—	—	4.19

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-19 → 2026-08-30. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-30; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

TEX · Jacob deGrom

Last outing 2026-08-31 vs ATH · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	110
Location+	—	—	101
Pitching+	—	—	113
botOvr	—	—	60
SIERA	—	—	5.62

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-08 → 2026-08-31. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-31; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TB · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.29–0.49]

0.092 R/PA · 0.130 R/out · worst: Alex Cook (5.40)

TEX · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.37–0.49]

0.101 R/PA · 0.144 R/out · worst: Ben Peoples (5.05)

TB

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Bryan Baker	CLOSER	CL	3.05	27.6	9.2	0.96	39/2/28	stable
Kevin Kelly	SETUP	SU	3.13	21.4	4.5	1.10	4/29/9	stable
Tyler Wells	SETUP	SU	3.51	25.1	6.5	1.26	6/15/13	stable
Casey Legumina	OPENER	MR	3.53	17.8	5.9	1.25	0/7/7	stable
Cole Sulser	OPENER	MR	3.60	24.4	7.1	1.11	2/11/9	stable
Steven Matz	SWING	LR	5.20	17.3	7.3	3.53	1/1/1	ramping down
Cam Booser	MR	MR	3.23	30.2	4.7	1.11	0/10/5	stable
Alex Cook	unknown	MR	7.18	11.8	11.8	—	0/0/0	—

TEX

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jacob Latz	CLOSER	CL	2.38	30.4	8.0	1.28	28/2/26	stable
Jakob Junis	SETUP	SU	3.38	17.9	6.2	1.12	5/17/9	stable
Chase Silseth	SETUP	SU	4.06	26.1	14.3	0.85	0/14/7	stable
Tyler Alexander	OPENER	MR	2.86	20.5	6.9	0.95	4/11/11	stable
Adam Macko	MR	MR	4.36	22.7	10.1	1.04	0/5/2	stable
Robby Ahlstrom	MR	MR	5.15	20.5	7.3	0.82	0/6/3	stable
Ben Peoples	MR	MR	5.90	14.7	11.8	1.06	0/0/1	ramping down
Trevor Williams	unknown	MR	3.91	29.8	8.3	—	0/1/0	—
Jordan Montgomery	unknown	LR	4.95	19.7	6.1	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 TB · 3 TEX

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

TB

6 R

10H · 3HR · 3BB · 9K · 7LOB

OBPe 0.317 · SLGe 0.513 · K% 21.9

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 3 ER · 10 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

TEX

3 R

6H · 2HR · 0BB · 10K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.162 · SLGe 0.351 · K% 27.0

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 5 ER · 9 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

TB · standout lines

big nights

Jonathan Aranda (1B) · 2-5 | HR, 2 K, 3 RBIHR
Junior Caminero (3B) · 2-5 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR
Richie Palacios (2B) · 1-2 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Yandy Díaz (DH) · 0-4 | BB, R0-for-4
Chandler Simpson (LF) · 0-5 | K0-for-5

TEX · standout lines

big nights

Joc Pederson (DH) · 1-3 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR
Evan Carter (CF) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR

tough nights

Wyatt Langford (LF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Brandon Nimmo (RF) · 0-40-for-4
Ezequiel Duran (2B) · 0-40-for-4