Baseball Daily

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today's slate

BOS @ BAL

Friday · September 4, 2026·full·gamePk 824797free Saturday

refreshed 519h 17m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Oriole Park at Camden Yards

gametime 7:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

86°F

humidity 51%

wind

5 mph

out to RF

precip

overcast

park

BAL

open · HP→CF 28°

wind impact on total

+0.07 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Ranger SuarezLHP · BOS	Shane BazRHP · BAL
xERA 2026	3.73	4.04
xwOBA 2026	0.299	0.310
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.005	0.005
xERA 2025	3.14	3.88
xwOBA 2025	0.277	0.306
Outs/TB 25-26	2.18	1.91
FIP 25-26	3.16	3.87
kwERA 25-26	3.41	3.70
K% 25-26	23.1%	22.8%
BB% 25-26	6.6%	8.6%
IP 25+26 combined	281.0	323.3
ERA actual 2026	3.64	4.01
ERA (L4)	5.23	5.09
WHIP (L4)	1.55	1.22
K% (L4)	12.0%	25.5%
BB% (L4)	9.8%	7.4%
IP/gm (L4)	5.17	5.75
L4 window	08/12→08/30 (4 st)	08/07→08/23 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	92 (−2)	99 (+1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.65 (+1.73)	3.64 (−0.67)
Arsenal RV/100	0.67	0.03

away arsenal — BOS

RV/100 0.67

Sinker—-0.10xwOBA 0.356
4-Seam Fastball—+1.60xwOBA 0.314
Cutter—+1.20xwOBA 0.297
Curveball—+0.70xwOBA 0.216
Changeup—-0.20xwOBA 0.282
Slider—+0.00xwOBA 0.245

home arsenal — BAL

RV/100 0.03

4-Seam Fastball—+0.10xwOBA 0.324
Curveball—-0.60xwOBA 0.269
Cutter—+1.10xwOBA 0.336
Sinker—+2.70xwOBA 0.297
Changeup—-2.50xwOBA 0.406

away · BOS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.851

Σ match

2.862

Σ FRV

+22.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Roman Anthony	0.366	0.362	+0.5
2	1B	Mickey Gasper	0.363	0.367	-3.2
3	C	Adley Rutschman	0.341	0.337	+10.2
4	RF	Wilyer Abreu	0.348	0.339	+4.2
5	2B	Nick Sogard	0.324	0.325	+0.6
6	3B	Caleb Durbin	0.290	0.292	+4.7
7	LF	Jarren Duran	0.298	0.306	+3.8
8	SS	Trevor Story	0.250	0.253	-2.6
9	CF	Eli White	0.271	0.280	+4.0

home · BAL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.893

Σ match

2.804

Σ FRV

-6.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Blaze Alexander	0.356	0.330	-5.3
2	DH	Coby Mayo	0.319	0.325	-2.0
3	CF	Luis Robert Jr.	0.317	0.313	+0.7
4	1B	Pete Alonso	0.395	0.372	-2.6
5	SS	Gunnar Henderson	0.317	0.309	+1.2
6	3B	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0.345	0.330	+2.6
7	2B	Jackson Holliday	0.306	0.287	-4.0
8	C	Carlos Narváez	0.263	0.259	+4.3
9	LF	Leody Taveras	0.275	0.280	-2.0

defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)

Adley Rutschman

FRV+10.2
framing+5.7
blocking+0.8
throwing+3.6

defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)

Carlos Narváez

FRV+4.3
framing+2.1
blocking+2.6
throwing-0.4

BOS · Ranger Suarez

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs NYY · 5.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	92
Location+	—	—	106
Pitching+	—	—	93
botOvr	—	—	53
SIERA	—	—	5.65

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-18 → 2026-08-30. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-30; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

BAL · Shane Baz

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs TB · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	99
Location+	—	—	111
Pitching+	—	—	109
botOvr	—	—	54
SIERA	—	—	3.64

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

BOS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.46]

0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Brayan Bello (4.37)

BAL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.34–0.48]

0.097 R/PA · 0.137 R/out · worst: Albert Suárez (4.43)

BOS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Aroldis Chapman	CLOSER	CL	2.62	32.0	10.3	0.96	31/0/27	stable
Garrett Whitlock	SETUP	SU	2.13	29.9	4.0	0.97	2/23/7	stable
Erik Miller	SETUP	SU	2.98	34.7	14.0	0.86	4/12/7	stable
Greg Weissert	SETUP	MR	4.13	23.9	7.7	0.96	1/6/4	stable
Brayan Bello	BULK	LR	4.32	16.2	7.6	5.03	1/0/1	ramping up
Jovani Morán	OPENER	MR	4.53	25.9	11.9	1.53	0/4/6	ramping down
Alec Gamboa	MR	MR	3.13	18.0	7.0	1.60	1/1/5	ramping up
Wyatt Olds	unknown	MR	3.69	27.0	10.8	—	0/0/0	—
Raymond Burgos	unknown	MR	3.72	18.5	1.9	—	1/0/0	—

BAL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yennier Cano	SETUP	SU	2.71	22.3	5.4	0.74	3/13/6	stable
Grant Wolfram	SETUP	MR	2.93	25.8	7.2	0.80	1/12/3	stable
Andrew Kittredge	SETUP	CL	3.64	18.9	5.6	0.87	9/9/11	stable
Rico Garcia	SETUP	CL	4.11	26.0	8.5	0.93	6/18/16	stable
Albert Suárez	BULK	LR	4.61	16.2	8.1	2.54	1/0/9	stable
Alex Hoppe	MR	MR	2.88	25.5	9.3	1.14	1/5/13	stable
Josh Walker	MR	MR	3.57	22.5	7.9	1.20	0/3/3	ramping down
Cam Sanders	MR	MR	3.82	26.7	16.2	1.00	3/1/5	stable
Luis De León	unknown	MR	8.49	25.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 BOS · 0 BAL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

BOS

1 R

5H · 1HR · 4BB · 11K · 20LOB

OBPe 0.263 · SLGe 0.242 · K% 28.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 4 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

BAL

0 R

6H · 0HR · 1BB · 4K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.242 · SLGe 0.194 · K% 12.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 11 K · relief 2.7 IP · 4 arms

BOS · standout lines

big nights

Mickey Gasper (1B) · 2-4 | HR, HBP, KHR

tough nights

Roman Anthony (DH) · 0-4 | BB, K0-for-4
Adley Rutschman (C) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Caleb Durbin (3B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

BAL · standout lines

big nights

Blaze Alexander (RF) · 3-43 H

tough nights

Pete Alonso (1B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Leody Taveras (LF) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K