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today's slate

MIN @ CWS

Friday · September 4, 2026·full·gamePk 824554free Saturday

refreshed 519h 17m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Rate Field

gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

88°F

humidity 60%

wind

6 mph

out to RF

precip

clear

park

CWS

open · HP→CF 38°

wind impact on total

+0.18 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.18 R/G vs neutral. _Open bowl on south side; Chicago summer wind off the lake can swirl_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Zebby MatthewsRHP · MIN	Erick FeddeRHP · CWS
xERA 2026	4.51	4.66
xwOBA 2026	0.326	0.331
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.001	0.003
xERA 2025	4.67	5.37
xwOBA 2025	0.333	0.354
Outs/TB 25-26	1.73	1.75
FIP 25-26	4.26	5.17
kwERA 25-26	3.58	4.78
K% 25-26	22.0%	14.8%
BB% 25-26	6.8%	9.7%
IP 25+26 combined	191.3	264.3
ERA actual 2026	4.58	4.16
ERA (L4)	2.42	4.42
WHIP (L4)	1.00	1.20
K% (L4)	19.6%	22.7%
BB% (L4)	3.9%	5.3%
IP/gm (L4)	6.50	4.58
L4 window	08/12→08/30 (4 st)	06/30→07/31 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	94 (−0)	86 (−4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.70 (−0.48)	3.26 (−1.42)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.07	-0.36

away arsenal — MIN

RV/100 -0.07

4-Seam Fastball—+0.30xwOBA 0.375
Slider—+1.70xwOBA 0.256
Changeup—-2.50xwOBA 0.328
Cutter—-0.80xwOBA 0.396
Curveball—-0.80xwOBA 0.199
Sinker—-0.70xwOBA 0.504

home arsenal — CWS

RV/100 -0.36

Sweeper—+0.90xwOBA 0.292
Sinker—-0.50xwOBA 0.357
Cutter—-1.30xwOBA 0.381
Changeup—-2.30xwOBA 0.324

away · MIN vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.835

Σ match

3.103

Σ FRV

-22.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Luke Keaschall	0.317	0.339	-10.6
2	3B	Brooks Lee	0.273	0.316	-1.6
3	2B	Kody Clemens	0.339	0.356	-2.6
4	C	Ryan Jeffers	0.357	0.387	-2.8
5	DH	Josh Bell	0.328	0.333	-0.9
6	LF	Trevor Larnach	0.331	0.371	-1.5
7	1B	Royce Lewis	0.316	0.374	-2.2
8	SS	Kaelen Culpepper	0.312	0.329	-0.1
9	CF	Walker Jenkins	0.262	0.299	+0.2

home · CWS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.938

Σ match

3.143

Σ FRV

+12.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Sam Antonacci	0.342	0.360	-8.3
2	3B	Miguel Vargas	0.387	0.403	-4.3
3	1B	Munetaka Murakami	0.355	0.397	-1.0
4	DH	Andrew Benintendi	0.309	0.328	-1.6
5	SS	Colson Montgomery	0.304	0.320	+8.3
6	RF	Braden Montgomery	0.327	0.372	+0.8
7	CF	Tristan Peters	0.318	0.338	+9.8
8	2B	Chase Meidroth	0.294	0.320	+9.5
9	C	Kyle Teel	0.302	0.307	-1.1

defense · MIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Ryan Jeffers

FRV-2.8
framing-0.2
blocking+0.1
throwing-2.7

defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)

Kyle Teel

FRV-1.1
framing-1.0
blocking-1.1
throwing+1.0

MIN · Zebby Matthews

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs CWS · 8.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	94
Location+	—	—	110
Pitching+	—	—	103
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	3.70

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-18 → 2026-08-30. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-30; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CWS · Erick Fedde

Last outing 2026-08-06 vs BOS · 0.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	86
Location+	—	—	113
Pitching+	—	—	103
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	3.26

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-20 → 2026-07-31. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.48]

0.095 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Kody Funderburk (4.53)

CWS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.39–0.49]

0.104 R/PA · 0.148 R/out · worst: Tyler Schweitzer (4.95)

MIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yoendrys Gómez	CLOSER	CL	4.58	21.2	12.7	1.12	20/6/26	ramping down
Jeff Hoffman	SETUP	SU	2.52	34.2	9.6	0.94	5/16/16	stable
Kody Funderburk	SETUP	MR	4.01	19.7	12.4	0.94	1/10/1	stable
Taylor Rogers	SETUP	MR	4.09	18.9	11.0	0.82	2/9/10	stable
Andrew Morris	OPENER	MR	3.18	21.1	7.9	1.31	4/20/6	ramping down
Garrett Acton	MR	MR	2.28	28.9	7.9	1.67	0/0/3	ramping down
Tommy Nance	MR	MR	3.65	25.2	9.0	1.04	0/6/4	stable
A.J. Minter	MR	SU	3.81	21.1	4.2	1.00	0/6/8	stable
Travis Adams	MR	LR	4.16	25.9	10.2	1.46	2/1/6	stable

CWS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Sean Newcomb	SETUP	SU	2.90	22.6	8.7	1.51	4/11/6	ramping up
Grant Taylor	OPENER	CL	2.24	33.0	8.4	1.33	8/10/11	stable
Bryan Hudson	OPENER	CL	3.18	22.5	7.0	0.98	7/9/8	stable
Jordan Hicks	MR	MR	4.00	27.4	15.3	0.91	1/8/6	stable
José Urquidy	MR	LR	4.01	17.5	5.3	1.27	1/0/4	ramping down
Tyler Davis	MR	MR	4.10	20.7	14.4	1.10	1/0/6	stable
Trevor Richards	MR	MR	4.16	22.3	7.9	1.46	1/1/16	stable
Tyler Schweitzer	MR	MR	4.35	12.0	8.3	1.86	1/2/6	ramping up
Hagen Smith	unknown	MR	4.09	34.8	21.7	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 MIN · 4 CWS

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIN

1 R

8H · 1HR · 3BB · 5K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.297 · SLGe 0.353 · K% 13.5

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 4 ER · 7 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

CWS

4 R

6H · 3HR · 2BB · 7K · 7LOB

OBPe 0.250 · SLGe 0.500 · K% 21.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 5 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms

MIN · standout lines

big nights

Kody Clemens (2B) · 3-43 H
Josh Bell (DH) · 2-3 | HR, BB, RBIHR

tough nights

Luke Keaschall (RF) · 0-50-for-5
Brooks Lee (3B) · 0-40-for-4
Ryan Jeffers (C) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

CWS · standout lines

big nights

Miguel Vargas (3B) · 1-4 | HR, K, RBIHR
Colson Montgomery (SS) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, 2 RBIHR
Braden Montgomery (RF) · 1-3 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Munetaka Murakami (1B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4