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today's slate

MIL @ CIN

Friday · September 4, 2026·full·gamePk 824471free Saturday

refreshed 519h 18m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Great American Ball Park

gametime 6:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

96°F

humidity 38%

wind

9 mph

in from RF

precip

clear

park

CIN

open · HP→CF 24°

wind impact on total

-0.16 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.16 R/G vs neutral. _Great American small dimensions amplify any wind-out signal; SW summer winds out to RF_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Shane DrohanLHP · MIL	Rhett LowderRHP · CIN
xERA 2026	3.60	5.12
xwOBA 2026	0.294	0.345
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.020	-0.006
xERA 2025	—	—
xwOBA 2025	—	—
Outs/TB 25-26	2.02	1.71
FIP 25-26	3.42	4.64
kwERA 25-26	3.52	4.32
K% 25-26	23.6%	17.6%
BB% 25-26	7.9%	8.6%
IP 25+26 combined	110.3	112.0
ERA actual 2026	3.75	5.14
ERA (L4)	6.14	4.56
WHIP (L4)	1.68	1.23
K% (L4)	22.9%	14.0%
BB% (L4)	10.4%	5.0%
IP/gm (L4)	5.50	5.92
L4 window	07/24→08/23 (4 st)	08/05→08/28 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	98 (−2)	87 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.84 (+0.99)	5.23 (+0.51)
Arsenal RV/100	0.10	-0.40

away arsenal — MIL

RV/100 0.10

4-Seam Fastball—+1.40xwOBA 0.227
Slider—+1.70xwOBA 0.211
Sinker—-2.20xwOBA 0.384
Curveball—-1.30xwOBA 0.341
Cutter—+1.00xwOBA 0.376
Changeup—-2.50xwOBA 0.353

home arsenal — CIN

RV/100 -0.40

Sinker—+0.60xwOBA 0.400
Slider—-1.80xwOBA 0.294
4-Seam Fastball—+0.50xwOBA 0.357
Changeup—-0.90xwOBA 0.299

away · MIL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.915

Σ match

3.170

Σ FRV

+2.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Sal Frelick	0.284	0.310	-2.2
2	1B	Jake Bauers	0.372	0.414	-9.2
3	LF	Jackson Chourio	0.336	0.357	+4.7
4	DH	Christian Yelich	0.315	0.332	+0.0
5	C	William Contreras	0.334	0.361	-2.3
6	2B	Brice Turang	0.335	0.359	+11.2
7	CF	Garrett Mitchell	0.348	0.374	+3.3
8	SS	Cooper Pratt	0.315	0.341	+3.3
9	3B	David Hamilton	0.276	0.321	-6.7

home · CIN vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.871

Σ match

2.777

Σ FRV

-8.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Dane Myers	0.313	0.295	-0.7
2	SS	Elly De La Cruz	0.362	0.353	+4.6
3	1B	Sal Stewart	0.350	0.334	-3.6
4	C	Tyler Stephenson	0.338	0.336	-5.9
5	DH	Eugenio Suárez	0.282	0.273	-6.6
6	LF	JJ Bleday	0.350	0.343	-0.7
7	2B	Matt McLain	0.306	0.300	+2.4
8	RF	Héctor Rodríguez	0.277	0.273	+0.1
9	3B	Edwin Arroyo	0.293	0.271	+1.5

defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)

William Contreras

FRV-2.3
framing-4.4
blocking-0.9
throwing+3.1

defense · CIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Tyler Stephenson

FRV-5.9
framing-8.8
blocking+3.2
throwing-0.3

MIL · Shane Drohan

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs ATL · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	98
Location+	—	—	99
Pitching+	—	—	98
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	4.84

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-31 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CIN · Rhett Lowder

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs CHC · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	87
Location+	—	—	115
Pitching+	—	—	107
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	5.23

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-17 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-28; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.37–0.46]

0.097 R/PA · 0.138 R/out · worst: Antonio Senzatela (4.04)

CIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.39–0.49]

0.104 R/PA · 0.147 R/out · worst: Tony Santillan (4.75)

MIL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Trevor Megill	CLOSER	CL	1.72	28.5	6.8	0.97	25/7/21	stable
Aaron Ashby	SETUP	SU	2.90	31.5	11.1	1.23	2/14/5	stable
Abner Uribe	SETUP	SU	2.97	25.9	9.1	0.99	6/20/13	stable
JoJo Romero	SETUP	MR	3.92	22.8	8.3	0.98	0/21/4	stable
Grant Anderson	SETUP	LR	4.43	21.8	9.5	1.11	0/5/8	stable
Chad Patrick	SWING	MR	3.96	21.0	9.6	2.46	5/10/5	ramping down
Antonio Senzatela	MR	MR	3.58	19.7	8.4	1.61	3/10/11	ramping down
DL Hall	MR	MR	3.92	27.3	15.5	1.29	0/5/5	stable

CIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Emilio Pagán	CLOSER	CL	4.73	24.8	6.2	0.91	20/0/15	stable
Brock Burke	SETUP	SU	3.93	24.1	13.6	0.95	2/16/10	stable
Pierce Johnson	SETUP	MR	4.40	20.2	8.7	0.88	1/8/8	stable
Tony Santillan	SETUP	MR	7.02	18.8	13.3	0.91	5/11/11	stable
Luis Mey	MR	SU	3.63	32.1	14.7	1.24	0/3/0	ramping down
Tejay Antone	MR	MR	4.14	22.8	7.1	1.00	1/9/6	stable
Julian Garcia	MR	LR	4.70	25.0	9.0	1.62	2/3/2	stable
Sam Moll	MOP_UP	MR	4.21	21.4	11.9	0.88	1/7/5	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

10 MIL · 7 CIN

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIL

10 R

12H · 0HR · 5BB · 11K · 23LOB

OBPe 0.391 · SLGe 0.500 · K% 23.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 7 ER · 11 K · relief 5.0 IP · 5 arms

CIN

7 R

8H · 2HR · 5BB · 11K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.342 · SLGe 0.455 · K% 28.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 9 ER · 11 K · relief 5.0 IP · 6 arms

MIL · standout lines

big nights

Brice Turang (2B) · 3-4 | 2B, HBP, K3 H · 4 TB
Cooper Pratt (SS) · 1-4 | 3B, BB, K4 RBI
David Hamilton (3B) · 2-5 | 3B, 2 K, RBI4 TB

tough nights

Luis Lara (CF) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

CIN · standout lines

big nights

Elly De La Cruz (SS) · 3-5 | K, RBI, R3 H
Eugenio Suárez (DH) · 1-3 | HR, BB, 3 RBIHR
Matt McLain (2B) · 1-4 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Héctor Rodríguez (RF) · 0-3 | BB, 3 K0-for-3 · 3 K