Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

DET @ CLE

Friday · September 4, 2026·full·gamePk 824424free Saturday

refreshed 525h 7m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Progressive Field

gametime 1:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

70°F

humidity 99%

wind

11 mph

cross LF to RF

precip

77%

overcast

park

CLE

open · HP→CF 25°

wind impact on total

+0.03 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

opener / bulk pattern

CLE: Logan Allen opens → bulk: no confident pattern

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Keider MonteroRHP · DET	Logan AllenLHP · CLE
xERA 2026	3.42	3.71
xwOBA 2026	0.287	0.298
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.023	0.066
xERA 2025	4.64	4.45
xwOBA 2025	0.332	0.326
Outs/TB 25-26	2.12	1.90
FIP 25-26	4.28	4.42
kwERA 25-26	4.10	4.26
K% 25-26	17.3%	18.4%
BB% 25-26	6.5%	8.9%
IP 25+26 combined	229.7	171.0
ERA actual 2026	3.24	3.77
ERA (L4)	5.06	5.40
WHIP (L4)	1.27	2.70
K% (L4)	11.8%	15.8%
BB% (L4)	7.5%	15.8%
IP/gm (L4)	5.33	3.33
L4 window	07/27→08/18 (4 st)	07/18→07/18 (1 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	89 (−6)	104
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	6.19 (+1.66)	1.94 (−1.62)
Arsenal RV/100	1.16	-0.42

away arsenal — DET

RV/100 1.16

4-Seam Fastball—+2.10xwOBA 0.304
Sinker—+1.00xwOBA 0.313
Slider—+1.90xwOBA 0.235
Changeup—+1.50xwOBA 0.224
Curveball—-2.00xwOBA 0.342

home arsenal · BULK Logan Allen — CLE

RV/100 -0.42

4-Seam Fastball—-2.30xwOBA 0.249
Cutter—-1.00xwOBA 0.377
Sinker—+3.50xwOBA 0.214

away · DET vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.894

Σ match

2.836

Σ FRV

-8.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Gleyber Torres	0.326	0.299	+0.9
2	3B	Kevin McGonigle	0.350	0.362	-0.2
3	2B	Hao-Yu Lee	0.304	0.286	-9.4
4	C	Dillon Dingler	0.348	0.345	+11.4
5	LF	Riley Greene	0.358	0.361	-4.9
6	RF	Ben Malgeri	0.315	0.312	+0.6
7	1B	Spencer Torkelson	0.311	0.311	-6.7
8	CF	Max Clark	0.316	0.295	+2.8
9	SS	Javier Báez	0.266	0.263	-2.5

home · CLE vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.869

Σ match

2.655

Σ FRV

+12.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Steven Kwan	0.322	0.299	+6.6
2	RF	Chase DeLauter	0.343	0.316	+0.8
3	DH	José Ramírez	0.341	0.315	+1.8
4	LF	Jo Adell	0.329	0.306	-8.3
5	1B	Nathaniel Lowe	0.334	0.306	-2.7
6	3B	Angel Genao	0.301	0.289	-0.7
7	2B	Travis Bazzana	0.296	0.270	-1.4
8	C	Patrick Bailey	0.312	0.287	+5.0
9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	0.291	0.266	+11.2

defense · DET catcher (Savant FRV)

Dillon Dingler

FRV+11.4
framing+6.8
blocking+2.2
throwing+2.3

defense · CLE catcher (Savant FRV)

Patrick Bailey

FRV+5.0
framing+4.0
blocking-1.6
throwing+2.6

DET · Keider Montero

Last outing 2026-08-18 vs PIT · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	89
Location+	—	—	96
Pitching+	—	—	88
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	6.19

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-02 → 2026-08-18. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-18; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CLE · Logan Allen

Last outing 2026-07-18 vs PIT · 3.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 1
Stuff+	—	—	104
Location+	—	—	83
Pitching+	—	—	84
botOvr	—	—	43
SIERA	—	—	1.94

Last 1 starts: 2026-07-18 → 2026-07-18. 0/1 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-07-18; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

DET · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.34–0.57]

0.106 R/PA · 0.151 R/out · worst: Yilber Díaz (5.88)

CLE · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.34–0.45]

0.093 R/PA · 0.132 R/out · worst: Tim Herrin (4.25)

DET

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kenley Jansen	CLOSER	CL	5.03	27.8	13.9	0.89	17/1/22	stable
Tyler Kinley	SETUP	MR	5.20	23.2	11.3	0.87	1/12/9	stable
Kyle Finnegan	SETUP	SU	5.36	18.3	13.5	1.05	2/14/3	stable
Tyler Holton	OPENER	SU	4.10	18.9	5.9	1.06	2/14/8	stable
Drew Sommers	MR	MR	2.20	37.6	9.6	0.63	0/11/1	stable
Jacob Waguespack	MR	MR	5.05	15.3	10.2	1.30	0/4/4	stable
Beau Brieske	MR	MR	6.46	19.1	10.6	1.17	0/0/6	stable
Yilber Díaz	MOP_UP	LR	12.09	16.0	20.0	0.67	0/0/0	insufficient data
Andrew Sears	unknown	MR	4.29	14.3	3.6	—	0/0/0	—

CLE

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Cade Smith	CLOSER	CL	2.52	34.3	8.4	1.05	35/0/37	stable
Erik Sabrowski	SETUP	SU	2.83	38.5	15.4	0.78	1/23/2	stable
Colin Holderman	SETUP	MR	3.15	22.5	9.0	0.99	1/11/8	ramping down
Matt Festa	SETUP	MR	3.41	25.0	6.6	0.97	1/7/13	stable
Hunter Gaddis	SETUP	SU	3.84	22.3	9.2	0.86	1/28/2	stable
Tim Herrin	SETUP	MR	4.40	21.6	12.0	0.79	0/15/5	stable
Logan Allen	BULK	LR	4.97	22.4	6.0	3.67	0/0/1	insufficient data
Craig Yoho	MR	MR	5.02	24.1	10.2	1.33	0/1/5	stable
Carlos Hernández	unknown	MR	5.76	28.6	7.1	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

0 DET · 0 CLE

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

DET

0 R

0H · 0HR · 0BB · 0K · 0LOB

Their pitching

0.0 IP · 0 ER · 0 K · relief 0.0 IP

CLE

0 R

0H · 0HR · 0BB · 0K · 0LOB

Their pitching

0.0 IP · 0 ER · 0 K · relief 0.0 IP