Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

DET @ CLE

Friday · September 4, 2026·full·gamePk 824387free Saturday

refreshed 517h 33m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Progressive Field

gametime 7:15 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

75°F

humidity 88%

wind

4 mph

cross RF to LF

precip

overcast

park

CLE

open · HP→CF 25°

wind impact on total

+0.01 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

opener / bulk pattern

DET: Andrew Sears opens → bulk: no confident pattern

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Andrew SearsLHP · DET	Foster GriffinLHP · CLE
xERA 2026	4.15	4.24
xwOBA 2026	0.314	0.317
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.047	-0.015
xERA 2025	—	—
xwOBA 2025	—	—
Outs/TB 25-26	1.43	2.00
FIP 25-26	4.29	4.14
kwERA 25-26	4.11	3.50
K% 25-26	14.3%	22.1%
BB% 25-26	3.6%	6.2%
IP 25+26 combined	6.7	154.3
ERA actual 2026	6.75	3.21
ERA (L4)	—	4.05
WHIP (L4)	—	1.45
K% (L4)	—	21.8%
BB% (L4)	—	9.2%
IP/gm (L4)	—	5.00
L4 window	—	08/06→08/23 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	97 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	4.30 (+0.42)
Arsenal RV/100	0.20	0.25

away arsenal · BULK Andrew Sears — DET

RV/100 0.20

4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.264

home arsenal — CLE

RV/100 0.25

Cutter—+1.50xwOBA 0.328
4-Seam Fastball—-0.30xwOBA 0.323
Sweeper—-0.10xwOBA 0.335
Changeup—+0.30xwOBA 0.275
Sinker—+1.20xwOBA 0.328
Curveball—-3.30xwOBA 0.356
Split-Finger—-0.20xwOBA 0.219

away · DET vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.951

Σ match

2.902

Σ FRV

-2.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Gleyber Torres	0.326	0.320	+0.9
2	DH	Hao-Yu Lee	0.304	0.310	-9.4
3	3B	Kevin McGonigle	0.350	0.356	-0.2
4	C	Eduardo Valencia	0.319	0.322	+0.8
5	1B	Spencer Torkelson	0.311	0.298	-6.7
6	CF	Max Clark	0.316	0.317	+2.8
7	LF	Ben Malgeri	0.315	0.325	+0.6
8	SS	John Peck	0.427	0.357	-0.2
9	RF	Zach McKinstry	0.283	0.296	+9.1

home · CLE vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.773

Σ match

2.504

Σ FRV

+10.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Steven Kwan	0.322	0.281	+6.6
2	DH	Chase DeLauter	0.343	0.298	+0.8
3	3B	José Ramírez	0.341	0.311	+1.8
4	RF	Jo Adell	0.329	0.309	-8.3
5	LF	Angel Martínez	0.306	0.294	+2.9
6	1B	David Fry	0.263	0.227	-2.5
7	2B	Angel Genao	0.301	0.271	-0.7
8	C	Austin Hedges	0.277	0.245	-1.7
9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	0.291	0.268	+11.2

defense · DET catcher (Savant FRV)

Eduardo Valencia

FRV+0.8
framing+0.1
blocking+0.4
throwing+0.3

defense · CLE catcher (Savant FRV)

Austin Hedges

FRV-1.7
framing+1.6
blocking-1.0
throwing-2.2

DET · Andrew Sears: no recent outing on file.

CLE · Foster Griffin

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs COL · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	97
Location+	—	—	108
Pitching+	—	—	104
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	4.30

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

DET · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.34–0.57]

0.106 R/PA · 0.151 R/out · worst: Yilber Díaz (5.88)

CLE · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.30–0.48]

0.091 R/PA · 0.129 R/out · worst: Tim Herrin (4.25)

DET

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kenley Jansen	CLOSER	CL	5.03	27.8	13.9	0.89	17/1/22	stable
Tyler Kinley	SETUP	MR	5.20	23.2	11.3	0.87	1/12/9	stable
Kyle Finnegan	SETUP	SU	5.36	18.3	13.5	1.05	2/14/3	stable
Tyler Holton	OPENER	SU	4.11	18.9	5.9	1.06	2/14/8	stable
Drew Sommers	MR	MR	2.20	37.6	9.6	0.63	0/11/1	stable
Jacob Waguespack	MR	MR	5.05	15.3	10.2	1.30	0/4/4	stable
Beau Brieske	MR	MR	6.47	19.1	10.6	1.17	0/0/6	stable
Yilber Díaz	MOP_UP	LR	12.09	16.0	20.0	0.67	0/0/0	insufficient data
Andrew Sears	unknown	MR	4.29	14.3	3.6	—	0/0/0	—

CLE

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Cade Smith	CLOSER	CL	2.52	34.3	8.4	1.05	35/0/37	stable
Erik Sabrowski	SETUP	SU	2.84	38.5	15.4	0.78	1/23/2	stable
Matt Festa	SETUP	MR	3.41	25.0	6.6	0.97	1/7/13	stable
Hunter Gaddis	SETUP	SU	3.85	22.3	9.2	0.86	1/28/2	stable
Tim Herrin	SETUP	MR	4.40	21.6	12.0	0.79	0/15/5	stable
Daniel Espino	MR	MR	3.26	44.4	14.8	1.00	0/0/1	stable
Craig Yoho	MR	MR	5.02	24.1	10.2	1.33	0/1/5	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 DET · 4 CLE

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

DET

3 R

9H · 0HR · 2BB · 8K · 20LOB

OBPe 0.275 · SLGe 0.289 · K% 20.0

Their pitching

9.7 IP · 3 ER · 10 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms

CLE

4 R

6H · 1HR · 3BB · 10K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.263 · SLGe 0.324 · K% 26.3

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 3 ER · 8 K · relief 4.0 IP · 3 arms

DET · standout lines

tough nights

Max Clark (CF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
John Peck (SS) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

CLE · standout lines

big nights

Travis Bazzana (DH) · 2-3 | HR, 3 RBI, RHR

tough nights

Jo Adell (LF) · 0-40-for-4
Angel Genao (2B) · 0-40-for-4
Austin Hedges (C) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K