Baseball Daily

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today's slate

STL @ COL

Friday · September 4, 2026·full·gamePk 824311free Saturday

refreshed 517h 38m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Coors Field

gametime 8:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

85°F

humidity 23%

wind

7 mph

out to LF

precip

overcast

park

COL

open · HP→CF 0°

wind impact on total

+0.14 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.14 R/G vs neutral. _Altitude does most of the work; wind secondary but real — calm summer evenings let altitude effect peak_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Andre PallanteRHP · STL	Ryan FeltnerRHP · COL
xERA 2026	3.90	5.40
xwOBA 2026	0.305	0.353
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.007	0.018
xERA 2025	4.30	3.31
xwOBA 2025	0.321	0.284
Outs/TB 25-26	1.97	1.52
FIP 25-26	4.21	5.15
kwERA 25-26	4.41	4.50
K% 25-26	16.3%	17.1%
BB% 25-26	8.0%	9.7%
IP 25+26 combined	298.7	132.0
ERA actual 2026	3.57	5.84
ERA (L4)	1.85	7.29
WHIP (L4)	1.11	1.81
K% (L4)	20.7%	12.7%
BB% (L4)	8.7%	12.7%
IP/gm (L4)	6.08	5.25
L4 window	07/25→08/17 (4 st)	08/07→08/24 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	88 (−9)	89 (−3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.37 (+0.16)	6.43 (+1.43)
Arsenal RV/100	0.56	-1.11

away arsenal — STL

RV/100 0.56

4-Seam Fastball—+0.90xwOBA 0.336
Slider—+2.00xwOBA 0.271
Sinker—-0.20xwOBA 0.322
Curveball—-1.70xwOBA 0.290

home arsenal — COL

RV/100 -1.11

4-Seam Fastball—-1.80xwOBA 0.428
Slider—-1.10xwOBA 0.419
Changeup—+1.10xwOBA 0.180
Sinker—+0.40xwOBA 0.313
Sweeper—-3.90xwOBA 0.364
Curveball—-3.40xwOBA 0.405

away · STL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.919

Σ match

3.248

Σ FRV

-2.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Bryan Torres	0.297	0.340	+2.5
2	DH	Iván Herrera	0.331	0.379	-4.6
3	1B	Alec Burleson	0.374	0.434	+4.2
4	RF	Jordan Walker	0.352	0.378	-7.4
5	C	Leo Bernal	0.385	0.368	+0.5
6	LF	Joshua Báez	0.311	0.353	-0.2
7	3B	Nolan Gorman	0.274	0.334	+0.4
8	SS	Thomas Saggese	0.312	0.341	+0.8
9	CF	Nathan Church	0.283	0.320	+1.2

home · COL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.803

Σ match

2.727

Σ FRV

+2.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Jake McCarthy	0.319	0.307	-0.4
2	RF	Mickey Moniak	0.283	0.279	-0.1
3	C	Hunter Goodman	0.324	0.331	-0.8
4	1B	TJ Rumfield	0.331	0.320	+6.0
5	SS	Cole Carrigg	0.320	0.297	+2.2
6	3B	Connor Norby	0.294	0.274	-0.5
7	DH	Troy Johnston	0.329	0.324	-2.6
8	2B	Adael Amador	0.284	0.294	+0.6
9	LF	Zac Veen	0.319	0.302	-2.3

defense · STL catcher (Savant FRV)

Leo Bernal

FRV+0.5
framing+0.2
blocking+0.3
throwing—

defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)

Hunter Goodman

FRV-0.8
framing+0.2
blocking-0.4
throwing-0.7

STL · Andre Pallante

Last outing 2026-08-17 vs CIN · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	88
Location+	—	—	97
Pitching+	—	—	96
botOvr	—	—	50
SIERA	—	—	4.37

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-05 → 2026-08-17. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-17; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

COL · Ryan Feltner

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs ATL · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	89
Location+	—	—	96
Pitching+	—	—	88
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	6.43

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-24. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-30; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

STL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.46R / inningband [0.40–0.52]

0.108 R/PA · 0.154 R/out · worst: Justin Bruihl (4.60)

COL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.45–0.51]

0.113 R/PA · 0.161 R/out · worst: Juan Mejia (4.60)

STL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Riley O'Brien	CLOSER	CL	3.64	22.7	9.9	0.99	35/1/33	stable
Justin Bruihl	SETUP	MR	3.86	15.3	8.7	1.11	0/10/5	ramping up
Ryne Stanek	SETUP	SU	4.68	24.6	11.9	0.89	2/25/5	stable
George Soriano	SETUP	SU	4.84	23.1	11.4	0.98	2/21/7	stable
Brycen Mautz	BULK	LR	7.38	25.6	15.4	3.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Gordon Graceffo	MR	MR	3.96	18.1	11.0	1.18	1/6/10	stable
Luis Gastelum	MR	MR	4.28	30.0	9.1	1.00	0/1/1	stable
Cade Winquest	unknown	MR	2.59	25.0	12.5	—	0/1/0	—

COL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jordan Romano	CLOSER	CL	3.01	25.9	12.1	0.79	14/1/13	stable
Jaden Hill	SETUP	MR	4.28	21.9	12.6	0.83	2/12/4	stable
Juan Mejia	SETUP	MR	4.34	19.6	13.0	1.10	4/9/16	stable
Brennan Bernardino	OPENER	SU	3.46	17.6	6.0	0.86	1/11/7	stable
Jimmy Herget	OPENER	SU	5.17	20.1	11.9	0.99	3/9/10	stable
Zach Agnos	SWING	MR	4.47	15.1	8.0	2.28	2/1/10	stable
Blas Castaño	MR	LR	4.94	19.8	6.6	2.07	0/0/2	stable
Nick Frasso	unknown	MR	2.76	19.6	8.9	—	0/0/0	—
Mark Manfredi	unknown	MR	3.09	27.3	18.2	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

7 STL · 6 COL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

STL

7 R

9H · 1HR · 4BB · 7K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.325 · SLGe 0.400 · K% 17.5

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 4 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

COL

6 R

10H · 2HR · 4BB · 4K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.342 · SLGe 0.618 · K% 9.8

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 7 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

STL · standout lines

big nights

Iván Herrera (DH) · 2-5 | HR, K, 3 RBIHR

COL · standout lines

big nights

TJ Rumfield (1B) · 3-4 | HR, 3B, BBHR · 3 H · 8 TB
Cole Carrigg (CF) · 2-5 | HR, 3B, KHR · 7 TB

tough nights

Jake McCarthy (LF) · 0-4 | BB, K, R0-for-4
Mickey Moniak (RF) · 0-5 | K0-for-5