Baseball Daily

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today's slate

AZ @ HOU

Friday · September 4, 2026·full·gamePk 824146free Saturday

refreshed 519h 16m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Daikin Park

gametime 8:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

84°F

humidity 67%

wind

5 mph

out to LF

precip

overcast

park

HOU

retractable · HP→CF 345°

wind impact on total

+0.01 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Merrill KellyRHP · AZ	Cristian JavierRHP · HOU
xERA 2026	6.94	5.16
xwOBA 2026	0.392	0.346
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.036	0.027
xERA 2025	4.16	3.28
xwOBA 2025	0.316	0.283
Outs/TB 25-26	1.89	1.83
FIP 25-26	4.54	4.36
kwERA 25-26	4.06	4.00
K% 25-26	19.3%	21.1%
BB% 25-26	8.1%	9.4%
IP 25+26 combined	325.7	81.7
ERA actual 2026	5.08	6.45
ERA (L4)	7.08	5.68
WHIP (L4)	1.67	1.47
K% (L4)	13.0%	20.2%
BB% (L4)	15.2%	4.8%
IP/gm (L4)	5.08	4.75
L4 window	08/07→08/24 (4 st)	08/03→08/23 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	88 (−1)	103 (+7)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	6.62 (+1.38)	5.38 (+0.71)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.83	-1.01

away arsenal — AZ

RV/100 -0.83

Changeup—-0.30xwOBA 0.359
4-Seam Fastball—-1.60xwOBA 0.487
Cutter—-2.50xwOBA 0.423
Curveball—+0.90xwOBA 0.325
Slider—+0.20xwOBA 0.299
Sinker—-1.00xwOBA 0.387

home arsenal — HOU

RV/100 -1.01

4-Seam Fastball—-1.40xwOBA 0.416
Sweeper—-1.10xwOBA 0.214
Changeup—-2.20xwOBA 0.311
Cutter—+6.00xwOBA 0.337

away · AZ vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.901

Σ match

3.219

Σ FRV

+31.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0.329	0.365	+9.9
2	RF	Corbin Carroll	0.343	0.356	+4.5
3	C	Gabriel Moreno	0.363	0.415	+8.5
4	2B	Ketel Marte	0.351	0.369	+3.1
5	DH	Lars Nootbaar	0.343	0.402	+1.4
6	3B	Nolan Arenado	0.284	0.332	+2.7
7	LF	Max Kepler	0.277	0.332	-0.8
8	1B	Tim Tawa	0.308	0.298	-1.7
9	CF	Ryan Waldschmidt	0.303	0.349	+4.3

home · HOU vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.838

Σ match

3.592

Σ FRV

-8.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Jeremy Peña	0.331	0.433	-2.3
2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	0.450	0.549	-2.7
3	3B	Isaac Paredes	0.320	0.404	+1.1
4	2B	Jose Altuve	0.273	0.351	-5.1
5	CF	Daulton Varsho	0.288	0.365	+3.2
6	1B	Christian Walker	0.301	0.372	+3.6
7	RF	Taylor Trammell	0.290	0.384	-1.9
8	C	Yainer Diaz	0.304	0.379	-3.9
9	LF	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.281	0.355	-0.8

defense · AZ catcher (Savant FRV)

Gabriel Moreno

FRV+8.5
framing+5.0
blocking+1.5
throwing+2.0

defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)

Yainer Diaz

FRV-3.9
framing-3.5
blocking-0.0
throwing-0.3

AZ · Merrill Kelly

Last outing 2026-08-24 vs CHC · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	88
Location+	—	—	92
Pitching+	—	—	84
botOvr	—	—	49
SIERA	—	—	6.62

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-24. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-24; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

HOU · Cristian Javier

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs ATH · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	103
Location+	—	—	107
Pitching+	—	—	105
botOvr	—	—	56
SIERA	—	—	5.38

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-09 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

AZ · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.32–0.50]

0.097 R/PA · 0.137 R/out · worst: Blake Walston (5.40)

HOU · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.39–0.44]

0.099 R/PA · 0.140 R/out · worst: Bennett Sousa (4.22)

AZ

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Brandyn Garcia	SETUP	SU	2.43	31.4	6.4	0.83	4/15/6	stable
Juan Morillo	SETUP	CL	2.55	28.6	9.4	0.92	3/17/9	stable
Jonathan Loáisiga	SETUP	MR	3.00	18.3	5.0	0.93	1/8/11	stable
Kevin Ginkel	SETUP	MR	3.52	24.2	6.8	0.93	2/11/5	stable
Taylor Clarke	SETUP	MR	3.82	15.6	4.9	1.00	0/13/6	stable
Dennis Santana	SETUP	MR	5.39	20.1	10.5	0.95	2/5/22	stable
Derek Law	unknown	MR	2.27	18.8	6.2	—	0/0/0	—
Blake Walston	unknown	LR	3.09	0.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Gerardo Carrillo	unknown	MR	3.38	26.3	19.7	—	0/0/0	—

HOU

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Josh Hader	CLOSER	CL	1.70	35.8	8.0	0.91	22/0/14	stable
Bryan Abreu	CLOSER	SU	4.62	29.7	16.8	0.92	8/12/21	stable
Enyel De Los Santos	SETUP	MR	3.71	21.9	6.3	1.07	5/9/13	stable
AJ Blubaugh	SETUP	MR	3.87	24.5	9.9	1.68	1/9/6	ramping up
Bryan King	SETUP	CL	4.81	18.5	8.0	1.07	6/12/11	stable
Kai-Wei Teng	SWING	MR	4.70	22.1	9.5	2.76	0/3/1	ramping up
Bennett Sousa	MOP_UP	MR	4.57	22.5	12.7	0.67	0/7/2	stable
Tatsuya Imai	SP	LR	4.42	27.9	14.9	3.86	0/0/0	ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 AZ · 3 HOU

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

AZ

1 R

3H · 1HR · 7BB · 13K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.286 · SLGe 0.250 · K% 37.1

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 3 ER · 6 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

HOU

3 R

7H · 1HR · 0BB · 6K · 6LOB

OBPe 0.258 · SLGe 0.379 · K% 19.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 13 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

AZ · standout lines

big nights

Gabriel Moreno (C) · 1-2 | HR, 2 BB, KHR

tough nights

Corbin Carroll (RF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Tim Tawa (1B) · 0-3 | BB, 3 K0-for-3 · 3 K
Ryan Waldschmidt (LF) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

HOU · standout lines

big nights

Yainer Diaz (C) · 2-3 | HR, RBI, RHR