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today's slate

TOR @ KC

Friday · September 4, 2026·full·gamePk 824067free Saturday

refreshed 518h 8m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Kauffman Stadium

gametime 8:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

97°F

humidity 36%

wind

8 mph

out to LF

precip

clear

park

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

+0.18 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.18 R/G vs neutral. _Open exposed bowl on prairie — summer south winds blow OUT to RF, plays huge_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Jameson TaillonRHP · TOR	Daniel Lynch IVLHP · KC
xERA 2026	5.76	4.01
xwOBA 2026	0.363	0.309
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.001	-0.041
xERA 2025	3.85	4.55
xwOBA 2025	0.305	0.329
Outs/TB 25-26	1.71	2.20
FIP 25-26	5.39	4.24
kwERA 25-26	3.84	4.37
K% 25-26	19.6%	16.9%
BB% 25-26	6.6%	8.3%
IP 25+26 combined	213.7	129.3
ERA actual 2026	5.68	3.06
ERA (L4)	7.71	5.91
WHIP (L4)	1.65	1.41
K% (L4)	21.3%	11.1%
BB% (L4)	12.0%	11.1%
IP/gm (L4)	4.08	2.67
L4 window	07/20→08/10 (4 st)	07/28→08/23 (4 outs)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	90 (−2)	102 (−5)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.84 (+0.30)	3.98 (−0.18)
Arsenal RV/100	-1.18	1.25

away arsenal — TOR

RV/100 -1.18

4-Seam Fastball—-1.30xwOBA 0.445
Cutter—-2.50xwOBA 0.480
Sweeper—+1.90xwOBA 0.169
Changeup—-1.40xwOBA 0.307
Curveball—-0.80xwOBA 0.426
Sinker—-3.70xwOBA 0.452

home arsenal — KC

RV/100 1.25

Sinker—+2.20xwOBA 0.300
Changeup—+1.60xwOBA 0.280
Slider—+2.80xwOBA 0.241
4-Seam Fastball—-4.00xwOBA 0.489
Curveball—+2.30xwOBA 0.366

away · TOR vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.653

Σ match

2.725

Σ FRV

+22.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Brett Bateman	0.270	0.282	+3.4
2	DH	George Springer	0.306	0.309	-0.3
3	1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0.332	0.343	+5.1
4	C	Alejandro Kirk	0.304	0.314	+9.8
5	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	0.318	0.331	-3.0
6	2B	Charles McAdoo	0.269	0.278	+0.2
7	SS	Ernie Clement	0.266	0.274	-3.0
8	RF	Nathan Lukes	0.287	0.288	+6.2
9	LF	Myles Straw	0.301	0.306	+4.1

home · KC vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.838

Σ match

3.526

Σ FRV

+12.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	C	Carter Jensen	0.304	0.389	+1.8
2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0.382	0.475	+17.7
3	RF	Jac Caglianone	0.358	0.433	-7.7
4	DH	Salvador Perez	0.303	0.382	-9.2
5	1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	0.325	0.407	+1.7
6	3B	Nick Loftin	0.299	0.371	-1.4
7	2B	Michael Massey	0.304	0.375	+4.6
8	LF	Isaac Collins	0.296	0.368	+0.6
9	CF	Kyle Isbel	0.267	0.326	+4.0

defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)

Alejandro Kirk

FRV+9.8
framing+7.0
blocking+3.3
throwing-0.6

defense · KC catcher (Savant FRV)

Carter Jensen

FRV+1.8
framing+2.4
blocking-2.8
throwing+2.2

TOR · Jameson Taillon

Last outing 2026-08-10 vs BOS · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	90
Location+	—	—	91
Pitching+	—	—	83
botOvr	—	—	45
SIERA	—	—	4.84

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-26 → 2026-08-10. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-10; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

KC · Daniel Lynch IV

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs DET · 4.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	102
Location+	—	—	96
Pitching+	—	—	99
botOvr	—	—	50
SIERA	—	—	3.98

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-07 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TOR · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.38–0.51]

0.105 R/PA · 0.149 R/out · worst: Tyler Rogers (4.76)

KC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.41–0.54]

0.112 R/PA · 0.159 R/out · worst: Nolan Hoffman (5.40)

TOR

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Louis Varland	CLOSER	CL	1.81	31.6	7.0	1.11	32/5/31	stable
Paul Sewald	CLOSER	MR	5.35	25.8	6.3	0.91	24/1/33	stable
Tyler Rogers	SETUP	SU	3.28	13.4	8.0	0.97	4/30/6	stable
Mason Fluharty	OPENER	MR	3.73	25.3	10.5	0.76	1/15/5	stable
Braydon Fisher	OPENER	SU	4.16	23.8	12.8	1.05	1/12/7	stable
Spencer Miles	SWING	MR	2.80	22.7	6.1	2.37	1/4/6	ramping up
Joe Mantiply	MR	MR	3.46	21.8	5.1	1.04	0/0/4	ramping down
Brendon Little	MOP_UP	MR	5.72	32.7	19.2	0.95	0/3/2	ramping up
Michael Lorenzen	SP	LR	5.28	14.6	8.7	4.62	0/0/0	ramping up

KC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Alex Lange	CLOSER	MR	4.77	23.0	11.3	1.03	10/3/20	stable
Connor Thomas	BULK	MR	7.67	13.0	10.1	3.67	0/2/0	insufficient data
Steven Cruz	OPENER	CL	5.14	25.9	8.6	1.06	6/5/7	stable
Jose Cuas	MR	MR	2.96	22.5	14.1	1.27	0/3/4	ramping down
Craig Kimbrel	MR	SU	4.07	21.8	10.6	1.03	1/2/15	stable
Nolan Hoffman	MR	MR	4.15	12.5	12.5	1.56	0/0/2	insufficient data
Easton McGee	MR	LR	5.73	21.1	10.5	1.00	0/0/2	insufficient data
Anthony Gose	unknown	MR	3.09	0.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Nate Pearson	unknown	MR	3.55	20.4	11.8	—	3/5/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

9 TOR · 2 KC

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

TOR

9 R

13H · 1HR · 3BB · 3K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.395 · SLGe 0.500 · K% 7.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 5 K · relief 7.0 IP · 5 arms

KC

2 R

6H · 2HR · 2BB · 5K · 8LOB

OBPe 0.242 · SLGe 0.419 · K% 15.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 9 ER · 3 K · relief 4.0 IP · 3 arms

TOR · standout lines

big nights

Sean Keys (1B) · 1-1 | HR, RBI, RHR

KC · standout lines

big nights

Bobby Witt Jr. (SS) · 1-3 | HR, BB, KHR
Vinnie Pasquantino (1B) · 1-4 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Jac Caglianone (RF) · 0-40-for-4
Nick Loftin (3B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4