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today's slate

WSH @ LAD

Friday · September 4, 2026·full·gamePk 823905free Saturday

refreshed 517h 8m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Dodger Stadium

gametime 10:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

72°F

humidity 66%

wind

6 mph

out to RF

precip

clear

park

LAD

open · HP→CF 28°

wind impact on total

+0.13 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.13 R/G vs neutral. _Dodger Stadium's marine layer + light winds → known suppressor. Strong Santa Ana east winds (rare) flip script_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Jackson KentLHP · WSH	Blake SnellLHP · LAD
xERA 2026	5.33	2.10
xwOBA 2026	0.351	0.225
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.016	0.002
xERA 2025	—	3.28
xwOBA 2025	—	0.283
Outs/TB 25-26	2.23	3.07
FIP 25-26	4.33	2.43
kwERA 25-26	5.13	3.09
K% 25-26	19.3%	29.7%
BB% 25-26	17.0%	10.5%
IP 25+26 combined	19.3	87.3
ERA actual 2026	5.59	2.42
ERA (L4)	5.28	1.00
WHIP (L4)	1.63	0.78
K% (L4)	15.9%	30.4%
BB% (L4)	14.5%	10.1%
IP/gm (L4)	5.11	6.00
L4 window	08/18→08/28 (3 st)	08/11→08/23 (3 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	86 (+2)	114 (−5)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.43 (−0.05)	4.12 (+0.82)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.66	1.72

away arsenal — WSH

RV/100 -0.66

4-Seam Fastball—-1.60xwOBA 0.415
Changeup—-1.00xwOBA 0.347
Slider—-1.00xwOBA 0.319
Sinker—+3.20xwOBA 0.335

home arsenal — LAD

RV/100 1.72

4-Seam Fastball—+2.30xwOBA 0.234
Curveball—+2.40xwOBA 0.121
Changeup—+0.40xwOBA 0.326
Slider—+0.10xwOBA 0.239

away · WSH vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

3.066

Σ match

2.321

Σ FRV

-4.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	James Wood	0.418	0.316	-6.4
2	DH	Andrés Chaparro	0.357	0.290	-2.9
3	RF	Dylan Crews	0.311	0.217	+1.5
4	2B	CJ Abrams	0.328	0.261	-11.1
5	3B	Brady House	0.334	0.233	-2.3
6	1B	Yohandy Morales	0.461	0.323	-0.5
7	C	Harry Ford	0.273	0.237	-0.8
8	CF	Jacob Young	0.317	0.243	+9.3
9	SS	Nasim Nuñez	0.267	0.200	+8.7

home · LAD vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.884

Σ match

3.428

Σ FRV

+0.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Tommy Edman	0.320	0.366	+2.2
2	SS	Mookie Betts	0.330	0.378	+8.2
3	LF	Teoscar Hernández	0.321	0.398	-5.6
4	C	Will Smith	0.382	0.446	-1.3
5	3B	Max Muncy	0.349	0.440	+3.4
6	2B	Miguel Rojas	0.313	0.369	+1.0
7	DH	Alex Call	0.278	0.336	+0.9
8	RF	Kyle Tucker	0.324	0.384	-7.3
9	1B	Enrique Hernández	0.267	0.311	-1.1

defense · WSH catcher (Savant FRV)

Harry Ford

FRV-0.8
framing-0.2
blocking+0.1
throwing-0.7

defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)

Will Smith

FRV-1.3
framing-1.3
blocking+0.4
throwing-0.4

WSH · Jackson Kent

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs MIA · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	86
Location+	—	—	95
Pitching+	—	—	84
botOvr	—	—	45
SIERA	—	—	5.43

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-18 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-28; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

LAD · Blake Snell

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs PIT · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	114
Location+	—	—	102
Pitching+	—	—	111
botOvr	—	—	56
SIERA	—	—	4.12

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

WSH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.27–0.56]

0.098 R/PA · 0.139 R/out · worst: Riley Cornelio (5.18)

LAD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.32–0.47]

0.092 R/PA · 0.131 R/out · worst: Seth Halvorsen (5.29)

WSH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Orlando Ribalta	SETUP	SU	3.90	23.6	10.1	0.92	2/12/6	stable
Brad Lord	SETUP	MR	4.08	22.5	9.3	2.15	1/6/4	stable
Clayton Beeter	SETUP	CL	5.30	23.0	15.3	0.96	12/8/11	stable
Matt Waldron	BULK	LR	4.59	17.0	5.7	3.58	0/1/1	ramping down
Will Dion	MR	LR	3.81	28.4	6.8	1.79	0/0/6	ramping down
Riley Cornelio	MR	MR	4.99	21.5	19.6	2.04	0/0/2	ramping down
Jared Simpson	unknown	MR	1.09	37.5	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Erik Tolman	unknown	MR	1.59	34.8	8.7	—	1/1/0	—
Luis Perales	unknown	MR	8.09	23.8	19.0	—	0/0/0	—

LAD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Tanner Scott	CLOSER	CL	2.32	30.9	5.5	0.94	20/12/21	stable
Edgardo Henriquez	SETUP	SU	2.59	29.0	10.4	1.05	1/9/5	stable
Blake Treinen	SETUP	MR	3.48	25.0	10.0	0.79	1/6/5	stable
Alex Vesia	SETUP	MR	3.51	29.5	14.8	0.76	3/18/6	stable
Kyle Hurt	SETUP	LR	3.72	29.4	12.3	1.01	1/9/10	stable
Jack Dreyer	MR	MR	3.49	29.7	9.0	1.01	1/10/9	stable
Brock Stewart	MR	MR	3.67	23.8	10.0	1.06	1/7/2	stable
Evan Phillips	MR	SU	4.48	27.5	6.2	1.00	0/5/3	stable
Seth Halvorsen	MOP_UP	MR	6.13	16.1	15.2	0.90	0/2/4	stable
Justin Wrobleski	SP	MR	4.29	19.8	5.5	6.02	0/0/1	ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 WSH · 5 LAD

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

WSH

3 R

10H · 0HR · 2BB · 11K · 20LOB

OBPe 0.316 · SLGe 0.417 · K% 28.9

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 4 ER · 5 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

LAD

5 R

5H · 1HR · 4BB · 5K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.265 · SLGe 0.333 · K% 14.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 11 K · relief 3.0 IP · 6 arms

WSH · standout lines

big nights

James Wood (RF) · 2-5 | 2 2B, 2 K, RBI4 TB

tough nights

CJ Abrams (SS) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

LAD · standout lines

big nights

Kyle Tucker (RF) · 1-2 | HR, BB, RBIHR

tough nights

Tommy Edman (CF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Will Smith (C) · 0-40-for-4
Max Muncy (3B) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K