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today's slate

CHC @ MIA

Friday · September 4, 2026·full·gamePk 823824free Saturday

refreshed 519h 15m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · loanDepot park

gametime 7:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

84°F

humidity 84%

wind

0 mph

in from RF

precip

13%

overcast

park

MIA

retractable · HP→CF 40°

wind impact on total

neutralnone calm

Calm air — wind not a factor.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Shota ImanagaLHP · CHC	Janson JunkRHP · MIA
xERA 2026	3.79	4.27
xwOBA 2026	0.301	0.318
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.019	0.004
xERA 2025	4.07	4.45
xwOBA 2025	0.313	0.326
Outs/TB 25-26	1.81	1.92
FIP 25-26	4.82	3.63
kwERA 25-26	3.33	3.95
K% 25-26	22.4%	16.7%
BB% 25-26	5.1%	4.6%
IP 25+26 combined	295.0	213.0
ERA actual 2026	4.01	4.11
ERA (L4)	7.13	2.21
WHIP (L4)	1.53	1.13
K% (L4)	27.7%	9.8%
BB% (L4)	7.2%	6.1%
IP/gm (L4)	4.42	5.08
L4 window	08/11→08/30 (4 st)	08/12→08/30 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	84 (−8)	95 (−4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.27 (−0.47)	5.79 (+1.15)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.05	-0.22

away arsenal — CHC

RV/100 -0.05

4-Seam Fastball—+0.30xwOBA 0.315
Split-Finger—+0.60xwOBA 0.237
Sweeper—-1.90xwOBA 0.371
Sinker—-1.30xwOBA 0.377

home arsenal — MIA

RV/100 -0.22

4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.328
Slider—-0.30xwOBA 0.344
Changeup—+0.30xwOBA 0.283
Sweeper—-1.70xwOBA 0.300
Curveball—-0.40xwOBA 0.301
Sinker—-0.30xwOBA 0.335

away · CHC vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.930

Σ match

2.883

Σ FRV

+51.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0.368	0.365	+25.6
2	RF	Seiya Suzuki	0.341	0.341	+6.5
3	1B	Michael Busch	0.326	0.307	+1.6
4	3B	Alex Bregman	0.317	0.314	+5.5
5	LF	Ian Happ	0.311	0.303	+5.1
6	SS	Nico Hoerner	0.322	0.314	+8.7
7	2B	Pedro Ramírez	0.304	0.304	-0.8
8	DH	Michael Conforto	0.326	0.324	-1.9
9	C	Carson Kelly	0.315	0.310	+1.4

home · MIA vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.612

Σ match

2.669

Σ FRV

+11.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Heriberto Hernández	0.354	0.341	+1.0
2	SS	Otto Lopez	0.323	0.331	+10.9
3	RF	Griffin Conine	0.363	0.343	-0.8
4	3B	Javier Sanoja	0.287	0.285	+4.0
5	DH	Agustín Ramírez	0.276	0.263	-4.1
6	CF	Esteury Ruiz	0.294	0.301	-3.3
7	1B	Deyvison De Los Santos	0.214	0.269	-0.2
8	2B	Jared Serna	0.328	0.314	+0.1
9	C	Brian Navarreto	0.173	0.221	+3.5

defense · CHC catcher (Savant FRV)

Carson Kelly

FRV+1.4
framing+2.0
blocking+1.3
throwing-1.9

defense · MIA catcher (Savant FRV)

Brian Navarreto

FRV+3.5
framing+0.5
blocking+0.2
throwing+2.9

CHC · Shota Imanaga

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs CIN · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	84
Location+	—	—	91
Pitching+	—	—	82
botOvr	—	—	48
SIERA	—	—	3.27

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-17 → 2026-08-30. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-30; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

MIA · Janson Junk

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs WSH · 4.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	95
Location+	—	—	100
Pitching+	—	—	98
botOvr	—	—	56
SIERA	—	—	5.79

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-17 → 2026-08-30. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CHC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.36–0.50]

0.101 R/PA · 0.143 R/out · worst: Trent Thornton (4.67)

MIA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.36–0.54]

0.106 R/PA · 0.150 R/out · worst: Josh Ekness (4.98)

CHC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Daniel Palencia	CLOSER	SU	4.42	26.1	7.6	0.88	3/0/12	stable
Jacob Webb	SETUP	CL	3.76	25.7	8.3	0.98	9/8/14	stable
Ryan Zeferjahn	SETUP	MR	3.95	31.4	13.1	1.15	4/13/15	stable
Caleb Thielbar	SETUP	MR	4.82	29.0	8.7	0.85	3/7/6	stable
Ryan Rolison	OPENER	SU	4.03	22.2	10.9	1.12	2/7/13	stable
Trent Thornton	MR	MR	5.07	15.4	9.3	1.11	3/5/9	ramping down
Tyler Ferguson	MR	MR	6.14	26.9	5.1	0.97	0/4/4	stable
Aaron Civale	SP	MR	4.72	18.3	6.6	4.67	1/0/0	ramping down
Colin Rea	SP	LR	4.81	17.4	8.1	5.03	1/0/1	ramping up

MIA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Calvin Faucher	SETUP	CL	2.92	25.1	12.5	0.98	3/15/7	stable
Michael Petersen	SETUP	SU	3.40	28.6	11.1	1.06	1/23/4	stable
Dax Fulton	BULK	MR	3.27	21.4	15.7	2.50	0/0/3	ramping down
Cade Gibson	MR	MR	4.16	18.9	10.3	1.28	0/4/7	stable
Victor Vodnik	MR	MR	4.29	16.7	12.5	1.08	4/6/12	stable
Tyler Zuber	MR	SU	4.56	24.6	4.3	0.87	1/8/5	stable
Josh Ekness	MR	MR	4.84	17.6	14.1	0.89	1/2/2	stable
Jack Ralston	unknown	MR	3.92	18.2	0.0	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 CHC · 1 MIA

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CHC

6 R

9H · 1HR · 6BB · 7K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.366 · SLGe 0.382 · K% 17.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 7 K · relief 3.0 IP · 2 arms

MIA

1 R

4H · 0HR · 2BB · 7K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.182 · SLGe 0.194 · K% 21.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 7 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms

CHC · standout lines

big nights

Michael Busch (1B) · 1-4 | HR, BB, KHR
Nico Hoerner (SS) · 3-4 | RBI3 H

tough nights

Seiya Suzuki (RF) · 0-50-for-5
Carson Kelly (C) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

MIA · standout lines

tough nights

Heriberto Hernández (LF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Otto Lopez (SS) · 0-40-for-4
Agustín Ramírez (DH) · 0-40-for-4