Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

SF @ NYM

Friday · September 4, 2026·full·gamePk 823579free Saturday

refreshed 519h 17m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Citi Field

gametime 7:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

80°F

humidity 45%

wind

8 mph

cross RF to LF

precip

clear

park

NYM

open · HP→CF 21°

wind impact on total

-0.06 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Matt WilkinsonLHP · SF	Nolan McLeanRHP · NYM
xERA 2026	3.90	3.58
xwOBA 2026	0.305	0.293
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.011	-0.011
xERA 2025	—	3.56
xwOBA 2025	—	0.294
Outs/TB 25-26	1.94	2.64
FIP 25-26	3.69	3.45
kwERA 25-26	4.38	3.20
K% 25-26	12.8%	27.6%
BB% 25-26	4.3%	9.2%
IP 25+26 combined	11.7	203.7
ERA actual 2026	4.63	3.06
ERA (L4)	9.82	2.74
WHIP (L4)	1.91	1.26
K% (L4)	11.1%	20.8%
BB% (L4)	0.0%	13.5%
IP/gm (L4)	3.67	5.75
L4 window	08/23→08/23 (1 st)	08/06→08/23 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	79	103 (−4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	8.21 (+2.73)	5.58 (+1.86)
Arsenal RV/100	1.18	0.62

away arsenal — SF

RV/100 1.18

4-Seam Fastball—+2.10xwOBA 0.296
Changeup—-0.90xwOBA 0.306

home arsenal — NYM

RV/100 0.62

Sinker—+2.90xwOBA 0.271
4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.383
Curveball—+1.10xwOBA 0.153
Sweeper—-3.00xwOBA 0.396
Cutter—-2.00xwOBA 0.372
Changeup—-1.10xwOBA 0.309
Slider—+1.30xwOBA 0.201

away · SF vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.785

Σ match

2.762

Σ FRV

-10.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Drew Gilbert	0.327	0.319	+2.7
2	1B	Rafael Devers	0.336	0.318	-4.7
3	DH	Bryce Eldridge	0.357	0.353	+0.4
4	LF	Turner Hill	0.365	0.343	-1.0
5	RF	Jung Hoo Lee	0.318	0.308	-5.9
6	C	Drew Cavanaugh	0.323	0.318	-1.8
7	3B	Osleivis Basabe	0.286	0.288	-3.8
8	2B	Nate Furman	0.241	0.275	+0.4
9	SS	Christian Koss	0.232	0.240	+2.9

home · NYM vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.866

Σ match

2.798

Σ FRV

-13.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Francisco Lindor	0.338	0.319	-0.9
2	LF	Juan Soto	0.422	0.408	-3.3
3	3B	Bo Bichette	0.323	0.301	-1.8
4	DH	Mark Vientos	0.312	0.312	-6.2
5	RF	Carson Benge	0.338	0.324	+5.8
6	2B	Marcus Semien	0.307	0.327	-5.5
7	1B	Christopher Morel	0.218	0.209	-1.7
8	C	Francisco Alvarez	0.322	0.300	-0.8
9	CF	Nick Morabito	0.286	0.299	+1.2

defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)

Drew Cavanaugh

FRV-1.8
framing-2.2
blocking+0.4
throwing+0.0

defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)

Francisco Alvarez

FRV-0.8
framing+0.8
blocking-1.7
throwing+0.1

SF · Matt Wilkinson

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs BOS · 3.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 1
Stuff+	—	—	79
Location+	—	—	137
Pitching+	—	—	131
botOvr	—	—	59
SIERA	—	—	8.21

Last 1 starts: 2026-08-23 → 2026-08-23. 0/1 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

NYM · Nolan McLean

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs CWS · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	103
Location+	—	—	95
Pitching+	—	—	101
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	5.58

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SF · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.39–0.57]

0.113 R/PA · 0.160 R/out · worst: Ryan Walker (5.09)

NYM · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.30–0.46]

0.089 R/PA · 0.127 R/out · worst: Jefry Yan (4.48)

SF

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Dylan Smith	MR	CL	3.34	29.7	10.9	0.88	4/7/5	stable
Jason Foley	MR	MR	3.52	16.4	8.2	1.00	0/2/0	insufficient data
Carson Seymour	MR	SU	4.68	17.5	9.3	2.17	1/5/0	insufficient data
Reiver Sanmartin	MR	MR	4.70	17.9	7.7	1.67	0/3/1	insufficient data
Ryan Walker	MR	MR	5.51	14.8	12.3	0.98	3/5/10	stable
Trent Harris	unknown	SU	1.71	32.1	10.7	—	0/3/0	—
Braxton Roxby	unknown	MR	2.59	18.2	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Cesar Perdomo	unknown	MR	5.09	26.7	6.7	—	0/0/0	—

NYM

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kodai Senga	BULK	CL	5.98	25.8	14.7	3.39	5/0/1	ramping down
Austin Warren	OPENER	MR	4.13	25.6	11.1	1.35	0/1/9	stable
Daniel Duarte	MR	SU	2.90	26.8	6.2	1.67	2/6/2	insufficient data
Jonathan Pintaro	MR	MR	5.05	25.3	13.1	2.47	0/1/2	ramping up
Chris Devenski	MOP_UP	LR	7.71	13.6	0.0	0.78	0/1/1	insufficient data
Nate Lavender	unknown	SU	1.59	31.8	6.8	—	0/8/0	—
Dedniel Núñez	unknown	MR	4.55	23.4	0.0	—	0/2/0	—
Jefry Yan	unknown	MR	4.64	25.0	17.3	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 SF · 10 NYM

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SF

6 R

12H · 1HR · 6BB · 11K · 24LOB

OBPe 0.409 · SLGe 0.474 · K% 25.0

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 7 ER · 4 K · relief 5.0 IP · 2 arms

NYM

10 R

9H · 5HR · 4BB · 4K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.342 · SLGe 0.706 · K% 10.5

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 11 K · relief 3.0 IP · 5 arms

SF · standout lines

big nights

Rafael Devers (1B) · 3-4 | HR, 2 2B, BBHR · 3 H · 8 TB · 5 RBI

tough nights

Jung Hoo Lee (RF) · 0-5 | 2 K0-for-5 · 2 K
Nate Furman (2B) · 0-5 | 2 K0-for-5 · 2 K

NYM · standout lines

big nights

Francisco Lindor (SS) · 2-5 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR
Bo Bichette (3B) · 2-3 | HR, BB, 2 RBIHR
Mark Vientos (DH) · 2-4 | HR, 3 RBI, RHR
Francisco Alvarez (C) · 2-4 | 2 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R2-HR night · 8 TB

tough nights

Juan Soto (LF) · 0-4 | BB, RBI, R0-for-4
Marcus Semien (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4