Baseball Daily

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today's slate

ATL @ PHI

Friday · September 4, 2026·full·gamePk 823418free Saturday

refreshed 518h 6m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Citizens Bank Park

gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

79°F

humidity 71%

wind

5 mph

cross RF to LF

precip

clear

park

PHI

open · HP→CF 16°

wind impact on total

-0.04 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Chris SaleLHP · ATL	Cristopher SánchezLHP · PHI
xERA 2026	2.99	3.27
xwOBA 2026	0.269	0.281
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.012	0.007
xERA 2025	2.84	3.02
xwOBA 2025	0.264	0.272
Outs/TB 25-26	2.56	2.36
FIP 25-26	2.41	2.56
kwERA 25-26	2.28	2.81
K% 25-26	31.5%	27.0%
BB% 25-26	5.5%	5.4%
IP 25+26 combined	269.7	377.3
ERA actual 2026	2.06	2.52
ERA (L4)	1.33	2.66
WHIP (L4)	0.70	1.35
K% (L4)	37.0%	26.5%
BB% (L4)	2.0%	5.1%
IP/gm (L4)	6.75	5.92
L4 window	07/29→08/27 (4 st)	08/06→08/23 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	121 (+3)	107 (−11)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	2.03 (−0.77)	3.73 (+0.92)
Arsenal RV/100	1.40	0.77

away arsenal — ATL

RV/100 1.40

4-Seam Fastball—+1.40xwOBA 0.295
Slider—+1.30xwOBA 0.221
Changeup—+1.30xwOBA 0.317
Sinker—+2.00xwOBA 0.313

home arsenal — PHI

RV/100 0.77

Sinker—-0.10xwOBA 0.365
Changeup—+1.60xwOBA 0.193
Slider—+1.10xwOBA 0.260

away · ATL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.771

Σ match

2.656

Σ FRV

-2.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Ronald Acuña Jr.	0.357	0.359	-3.6
2	DH	Drake Baldwin	0.368	0.336	-0.4
3	2B	Ozzie Albies	0.286	0.256	-2.3
4	1B	Matt Olson	0.357	0.337	+7.0
5	LF	Lane Thomas	0.314	0.300	-3.8
6	CF	Mauricio Dubón	0.304	0.283	+5.0
7	C	Sean Murphy	0.264	0.284	-0.7
8	3B	Austin Riley	0.298	0.258	-1.3
9	SS	Ha-Seong Kim	0.223	0.243	-1.9

home · PHI vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.915

Σ match

2.569

Σ FRV

-8.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Kyle Schwarber	0.362	0.307	-0.8
2	SS	Trea Turner	0.292	0.256	-8.5
3	RF	Bryce Harper	0.394	0.364	-9.4
4	2B	Luis Arraez	0.306	0.260	+9.6
5	1B	Alec Bohm	0.321	0.272	-6.2
6	3B	Edmundo Sosa	0.339	0.309	+1.0
7	LF	Bryan De La Cruz	0.294	0.254	+0.9
8	C	J.T. Realmuto	0.324	0.285	+1.5
9	CF	Derek Hill	0.283	0.261	+3.3

defense · ATL catcher (Savant FRV)

Sean Murphy

FRV-0.7
framing-1.1
blocking+0.8
throwing-0.4

defense · PHI catcher (Savant FRV)

J.T. Realmuto

FRV+1.5
framing+0.5
blocking-1.1
throwing+2.1

ATL · Chris Sale

Last outing 2026-08-27 vs LAD · 9.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	121
Location+	—	—	118
Pitching+	—	—	130
botOvr	—	—	63
SIERA	—	—	2.03

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-08 → 2026-08-27. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-27; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

PHI · Cristopher Sánchez

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs STL · 6.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	107
Location+	—	—	83
Pitching+	—	—	94
botOvr	—	—	46
SIERA	—	—	3.73

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

ATL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.35R / inningband [0.27–0.43]

0.082 R/PA · 0.117 R/out · worst: Elieser Hernández (4.78)

PHI · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.37R / inningband [0.31–0.42]

0.086 R/PA · 0.122 R/out · worst: Orion Kerkering (3.94)

ATL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Raisel Iglesias	CLOSER	CL	3.33	25.1	7.7	1.04	29/0/29	stable
Dylan Lee	SETUP	SU	2.04	31.4	6.4	0.97	0/30/1	stable
Didier Fuentes	SETUP	SU	2.39	31.5	7.6	1.20	3/15/4	ramping down
Dylan Dodd	SETUP	MR	3.27	26.7	8.1	1.18	1/14/4	ramping down
Brent Suter	OPENER	MR	3.59	20.4	6.9	1.54	0/3/13	stable
Victor Mederos	MR	MR	2.95	23.3	9.2	1.87	1/1/4	ramping up
Elieser Hernández	unknown	LR	4.65	17.9	12.8	—	1/0/0	—
Ray Kerr	unknown	MR	4.89	18.5	3.7	—	0/1/0	—

PHI

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jhoan Duran	CLOSER	CL	1.38	34.0	4.4	0.94	29/0/35	stable
Jonathan Bowlan	SETUP	SU	3.03	31.7	6.7	0.93	2/12/2	stable
Brooks Raley	SETUP	MR	3.36	24.0	8.0	0.89	1/16/5	stable
Orion Kerkering	SETUP	SU	3.59	23.9	11.8	0.94	2/17/5	stable
José Alvarado	SETUP	MR	3.81	26.4	10.0	0.85	1/13/3	stable
Tim Mayza	OPENER	MR	3.22	24.9	6.3	1.15	0/1/9	stable
Chase Shugart	MR	LR	5.09	27.7	9.4	1.13	0/0/10	stable
Alex McFarlane	unknown	MR	2.61	25.0	12.5	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 ATL · 2 PHI

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

ATL

5 R

8H · 1HR · 4BB · 6K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.308 · SLGe 0.371 · K% 15.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 10 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

PHI

2 R

6H · 1HR · 1BB · 10K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.235 · SLGe 0.375 · K% 29.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 6 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

ATL · standout lines

big nights

Ronald Acuña Jr. (RF) · 3-5 | 2B, RBI3 H · 4 TB
Mauricio Dubón (SS) · 2-4 | HR, 2 RBI, 2 RHR

tough nights

Matt Olson (1B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

PHI · standout lines

big nights

Alec Bohm (1B) · 2-4 | HR, 2B, KHR

tough nights

Kyle Schwarber (DH) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Bryce Harper (RF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Bryan De La Cruz (LF) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K