Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

LAA @ PIT

Friday · September 4, 2026·full·gamePk 823338free Saturday

refreshed 518h 33m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · PNC Park

gametime 6:45 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

78°F

humidity 83%

wind

3 mph

out to LF

precip

13%

overcast

park

PIT

open · HP→CF 115°

wind impact on total

+0.04 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Ryan JohnsonRHP · LAA	Jared JonesRHP · PIT
xERA 2026	5.51	3.84
xwOBA 2026	0.356	0.303
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.013	0.020
xERA 2025	3.53	—
xwOBA 2025	0.293	—
Outs/TB 25-26	1.69	1.79
FIP 25-26	6.07	4.15
kwERA 25-26	4.59	3.25
K% 25-26	17.4%	26.6%
BB% 25-26	10.6%	8.7%
IP 25+26 combined	87.0	72.7
ERA actual 2026	5.47	4.83
ERA (L4)	1.69	7.56
WHIP (L4)	1.08	1.86
K% (L4)	15.5%	25.3%
BB% (L4)	13.1%	13.3%
IP/gm (L4)	5.33	4.17
L4 window	08/06→08/22 (4 st)	08/09→08/28 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	100 (+9)	98 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	6.21 (+0.85)	5.20 (+1.48)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.77	-0.34

away arsenal — LAA

RV/100 -0.77

Cutter—+1.00xwOBA 0.336
Split-Finger—+0.70xwOBA 0.237
Sinker—-4.40xwOBA 0.510
Sweeper—-1.90xwOBA 0.321

home arsenal — PIT

RV/100 -0.34

4-Seam Fastball—-0.30xwOBA 0.337
Slider—+0.10xwOBA 0.266
Changeup—-1.60xwOBA 0.296
Curveball—-0.50xwOBA 0.272

away · LAA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.690

Σ match

2.620

Σ FRV

-11.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Zach Neto	0.306	0.296	-3.0
2	CF	Mike Trout	0.377	0.346	-2.9
3	RF	Wade Meckler	0.313	0.311	+2.0
4	1B	Vaughn Grissom	0.317	0.311	-4.7
5	C	Moisés Ballesteros	0.290	0.270	-1.5
6	2B	Christian Moore	0.246	0.253	-1.6
7	LF	Jose Siri	0.306	0.315	+1.1
8	DH	Adam Frazier	0.262	0.257	-1.5
9	3B	Oswald Peraza	0.273	0.261	+0.4

home · PIT vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.855

Σ match

3.140

Σ FRV

-8.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	1B	Spencer Horwitz	0.311	0.318	-4.4
2	2B	Brandon Lowe	0.323	0.343	+10.4
3	RF	Bryan Reynolds	0.355	0.402	-3.6
4	DH	Nick Gonzales	0.328	0.353	-8.9
5	CF	Oneil Cruz	0.356	0.407	-0.0
6	SS	Konnor Griffin	0.305	0.347	-4.3
7	LF	Jake Mangum	0.284	0.320	+2.6
8	3B	Jacob Gonzalez	0.308	0.322	-2.6
9	C	Henry Davis	0.285	0.330	+2.3

defense · LAA catcher (Savant FRV)

Moisés Ballesteros

FRV-1.5
framing-1.2
blocking-0.5
throwing+0.5

defense · PIT catcher (Savant FRV)

Henry Davis

FRV+2.3
framing-0.0
blocking+0.4
throwing+1.9

LAA · Ryan Johnson

Last outing 2026-08-22 vs TEX · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	84
Pitching+	—	—	85
botOvr	—	—	49
SIERA	—	—	6.21

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-22. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-22; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

PIT · Jared Jones

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs STL · 4.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	98
Location+	—	—	90
Pitching+	—	—	94
botOvr	—	—	53
SIERA	—	—	5.20

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-15 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-28; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

LAA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.30–0.47]

0.090 R/PA · 0.128 R/out · worst: Luke Murphy (4.53)

PIT · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.34–0.47]

0.096 R/PA · 0.136 R/out · worst: Khristian Curtis (5.09)

LAA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Samy Natera Jr.	MR	SU	1.75	39.1	10.0	1.16	3/4/3	stable
Tayler Saucedo	MR	MR	2.39	28.6	4.8	0.56	0/5/0	stable
José Fermin	MR	MR	4.01	27.1	10.3	1.11	1/7/7	stable
Ryan Watson	MR	SU	4.16	19.6	7.9	1.61	2/4/21	stable
Mitch Farris	MR	LR	4.95	24.3	11.4	2.12	1/1/6	stable
Ben Joyce	unknown	CL	2.23	36.1	13.9	—	3/2/0	—
Blake Weiman	unknown	MR	2.70	20.8	2.1	—	0/2/0	—
Luke Murphy	unknown	MR	3.40	23.6	16.4	—	0/4/0	—
Sammy Peralta	unknown	MR	5.51	28.3	8.3	—	0/1/0	—

PIT

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Gregory Soto	CLOSER	SU	3.27	27.9	9.7	0.99	14/10/21	stable
Luke Weaver	SETUP	SU	2.68	26.7	7.1	1.05	1/18/4	stable
Yohan Ramírez	SETUP	MR	3.60	27.2	13.3	1.28	2/8/8	stable
Isaac Mattson	SETUP	SU	3.85	20.5	10.8	0.96	0/8/7	stable
Khristian Curtis	BULK	LR	3.45	17.9	15.4	5.00	0/0/0	insufficient data
Mason Montgomery	OPENER	CL	2.29	38.3	9.4	0.97	8/9/7	stable
Lake Bachar	OPENER	MR	4.64	25.2	10.1	1.53	2/1/10	stable
Wilber Dotel	MR	MR	3.19	25.2	10.6	2.13	0/2/1	stable
Camilo Doval	MOP_UP	MR	4.53	23.1	12.4	0.90	1/6/10	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

0 LAA · 1 PIT

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

LAA

0 R

4H · 0HR · 2BB · 12K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.188 · SLGe 0.133 · K% 37.5

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 1 ER · 10 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

PIT

1 R

5H · 0HR · 3BB · 10K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.281 · SLGe 0.259 · K% 31.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 12 K · relief 3.0 IP · 3 arms

LAA · standout lines

tough nights

Zach Neto (SS) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Adam Frazier (DH) · 0-3 | 3 K0-for-3 · 3 K
Oswald Peraza (3B) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

PIT · standout lines

tough nights

Oneil Cruz (CF) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K