Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

NYY @ SD

Friday · September 4, 2026·full·gamePk 823256free Saturday

refreshed 517h 36m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Petco Park

gametime 9:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

71°F

humidity 67%

wind

4 mph

cross RF to LF

precip

overcast

park

open · HP→CF 0°

wind impact on total

-0.03 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Max FriedLHP · NYY	Walker BuehlerRHP · SD
xERA 2026	2.50	4.12
xwOBA 2026	0.246	0.313
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.003	0.013
xERA 2025	3.38	5.41
xwOBA 2025	0.287	0.355
Outs/TB 25-26	2.66	1.83
FIP 25-26	2.94	4.97
kwERA 25-26	3.38	4.40
K% 25-26	23.7%	18.1%
BB% 25-26	6.9%	9.8%
IP 25+26 combined	285.3	257.3
ERA actual 2026	2.80	4.66
ERA (L4)	1.83	2.05
WHIP (L4)	0.86	0.91
K% (L4)	34.7%	19.3%
BB% (L4)	8.3%	6.0%
IP/gm (L4)	4.92	5.50
L4 window	07/22→08/07 (4 st)	08/06→08/23 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	109 (+3)	98 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	2.73 (−1.10)	4.54 (+0.17)
Arsenal RV/100	1.44	0.10

away arsenal — NYY

RV/100 1.44

Cutter—+2.20xwOBA 0.243
Sinker—+1.40xwOBA 0.267
4-Seam Fastball—-0.40xwOBA 0.270
Curveball—+1.80xwOBA 0.199
Changeup—+1.60xwOBA 0.247
Sweeper—+2.50xwOBA 0.190

home arsenal — SD

RV/100 0.10

Cutter—+1.00xwOBA 0.297
4-Seam Fastball—-0.60xwOBA 0.386
Sinker—+2.20xwOBA 0.272
Slider—+3.50xwOBA 0.210
Changeup—-5.50xwOBA 0.421
Curveball—-2.50xwOBA 0.359
Sweeper—-1.10xwOBA 0.267

away · NYY vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.924

Σ match

3.010

Σ FRV

+12.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Ben Rice	0.372	0.387	-4.1
2	LF	Cody Bellinger	0.345	0.347	+8.7
3	1B	Luis García Jr.	0.351	0.366	+1.0
4	RF	Spencer Jones	0.330	0.327	-2.2
5	CF	Trent Grisham	0.337	0.338	-4.7
6	2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.295	0.312	+7.0
7	SS	George Lombard Jr.	0.295	0.300	-0.9
8	3B	Ryan McMahon	0.306	0.316	+2.0
9	C	Austin Wells	0.293	0.319	+5.5

home · SD vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.886

Σ match

2.289

Σ FRV

+20.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.372	0.287	+5.4
2	LF	Samad Taylor	0.324	0.263	-0.7
3	3B	Manny Machado	0.332	0.271	+4.8
4	1B	Ty France	0.330	0.264	+8.6
5	CF	Jackson Merrill	0.336	0.266	+9.2
6	DH	Austin Hays	0.271	0.212	-1.9
7	SS	Xander Bogaerts	0.323	0.255	+3.2
8	C	Luis Campusano	0.325	0.259	-6.1
9	2B	Jake Cronenworth	0.273	0.212	-2.4

defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)

Austin Wells

FRV+5.5
framing+5.5
blocking+1.5
throwing-1.4

defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)

Luis Campusano

FRV-6.1
framing-5.4
blocking-0.9
throwing+0.3

NYY · Max Fried

Last outing 2026-08-07 vs ATL · 6.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	109
Location+	—	—	108
Pitching+	—	—	118
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	2.73

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-27 → 2026-08-07. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-07; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SD · Walker Buehler

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs MIN · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	98
Location+	—	—	109
Pitching+	—	—	103
botOvr	—	—	53
SIERA	—	—	4.54

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

NYY · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.36–0.52]

0.104 R/PA · 0.147 R/out · worst: Tim Hill (4.72)

SD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.35–0.47]

0.095 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Wandy Peralta (4.50)

NYY

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
David Bednar	CLOSER	CL	2.48	27.8	7.3	1.10	31/0/35	stable
Brent Headrick	SETUP	SU	2.25	30.1	7.3	1.01	0/24/6	stable
John Schreiber	SETUP	MR	4.84	17.5	10.7	0.91	1/14/5	stable
Tim Hill	SETUP	MR	5.39	10.8	5.2	0.84	2/10/6	stable
Paul Blackburn	OPENER	SU	3.56	21.1	9.2	1.53	1/10/13	stable
Ryan Yarbrough	MR	MR	3.77	17.3	9.3	1.59	3/1/14	stable
Michael Fulmer	unknown	MR	4.32	25.0	9.4	—	0/2/0	—

SD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Mason Miller	CLOSER	CL	1.07	47.5	9.1	1.04	32/0/34	stable
Adrian Morejon	SETUP	SU	2.50	29.3	7.5	1.16	2/22/6	stable
Kyle Hart	SETUP	MR	3.23	23.2	8.0	1.40	0/7/5	stable
Bradgley Rodriguez	OPENER	SU	2.43	26.1	7.0	1.09	2/11/5	stable
Wandy Peralta	OPENER	MR	4.04	15.4	7.9	1.17	0/4/14	stable
Yuki Matsui	MR	MR	4.19	27.1	14.5	1.35	0/8/5	ramping down
David Morgan	MR	MR	4.23	23.5	13.4	1.22	0/1/5	stable
Jhony Brito	MR	MR	5.52	21.4	3.6	1.78	0/1/1	insufficient data
Griffin Canning	SP	LR	4.84	22.4	10.2	4.24	0/1/0	ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 NYY · 3 SD

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

NYY

2 R

5H · 1HR · 2BB · 15K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.212 · SLGe 0.258 · K% 45.5

Their pitching

9.3 IP · 2 ER · 6 K · relief 3.7 IP · 4 arms

SD

3 R

6H · 1HR · 2BB · 6K · 8LOB

OBPe 0.229 · SLGe 0.344 · K% 17.1

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 1 ER · 15 K · relief 5.0 IP · 5 arms

NYY · standout lines

big nights

Ben Rice (DH) · 3-4 | HR, RBI, RHR · 3 H

tough nights

Cody Bellinger (LF) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Heliot Ramos (RF) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
George Lombard Jr. (SS) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K

SD · standout lines

big nights

Ty France (1B) · 2-3 | 2 2B, BB, K4 TB
Luis Campusano (C) · 2-4 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR

tough nights

Fernando Tatis Jr. (RF) · 0-40-for-4
Samad Taylor (LF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Austin Hays (DH) · 0-4 | K0-for-4