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today's slate

ATH @ SEA

Friday · September 4, 2026·full·gamePk 823093free Saturday

refreshed 517h 5m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · T-Mobile Park

gametime 10:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

61°F

humidity 69%

roof

likely closed

wind irrelevant

precip

overcast

park

SEA

retractable · HP→CF 36°

wind impact on total

neutralnone roof_closed

Roof closed — wind has no impact tonight.

opener / bulk pattern

ATH: Kade Morris opens → bulk: no confident pattern

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Kade MorrisRHP · ATH	Logan GilbertRHP · SEA
xERA 2026	4.54	3.63
xwOBA 2026	0.327	0.295
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.121	-0.009
xERA 2025	—	3.09
xwOBA 2025	—	0.275
Outs/TB 25-26	1.10	2.12
FIP 25-26	6.91	3.51
kwERA 25-26	4.76	2.66
K% 25-26	13.3%	28.9%
BB% 25-26	8.0%	6.1%
IP 25+26 combined	14.7	291.3
ERA actual 2026	9.82	3.42
ERA (L4)	20.25	4.15
WHIP (L4)	3.00	1.38
K% (L4)	18.2%	21.3%
BB% (L4)	13.6%	11.7%
IP/gm (L4)	4.00	5.42
L4 window	06/06→06/06 (1 st)	08/07→08/30 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	103	115 (+5)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.36 (−0.20)	4.32 (+0.79)
Arsenal RV/100	-2.54	0.72

away arsenal · BULK Kade Morris — ATH

RV/100 -2.54

Sinker—-3.30xwOBA 0.363
4-Seam Fastball—-1.10xwOBA 0.305

home arsenal — SEA

RV/100 0.72

4-Seam Fastball—+0.80xwOBA 0.355
Slider—+1.40xwOBA 0.304
Split-Finger—+0.20xwOBA 0.182
Changeup—+0.40xwOBA 0.264
Sweeper—+0.30xwOBA 0.232
Cutter—-0.50xwOBA 0.335

away · ATH vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.714

Σ match

2.659

Σ FRV

-31.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Henry Bolte	0.312	0.309	+4.4
2	1B	Jeff McNeil	0.308	0.297	-2.9
3	3B	Zack Gelof	0.308	0.288	-1.9
4	RF	Lawrence Butler	0.321	0.320	-10.3
5	LF	Carlos Cortes	0.307	0.317	-5.5
6	C	Jonah Heim	0.294	0.279	-5.4
7	DH	Max Muncy	0.284	0.289	-4.8
8	2B	Donovan Walton	0.336	0.309	-5.6
9	SS	Alika Williams	0.244	0.250	+0.7

home · SEA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.872

Σ match

3.325

Σ FRV

-19.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Randy Arozarena	0.349	0.426	-6.1
2	DH	Dominic Canzone	0.358	0.414	+0.4
3	CF	Julio Rodríguez	0.338	0.382	-0.6
4	C	Cal Raleigh	0.307	0.374	-1.6
5	1B	Josh Naylor	0.312	0.358	+2.5
6	2B	Cole Young	0.315	0.371	-3.0
7	SS	J.P. Crawford	0.326	0.385	-7.2
8	RF	Lazaro Montes	0.335	0.337	-0.0
9	3B	Brock Rodden	0.232	0.279	-4.0

defense · ATH catcher (Savant FRV)

Jonah Heim

FRV-5.4
framing-0.8
blocking-2.1
throwing-1.4

defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)

Cal Raleigh

FRV-1.6
framing-2.5
blocking+3.0
throwing-2.1

ATH · Kade Morris

Last outing 2026-06-06 vs HOU · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 1
Stuff+	—	—	103
Location+	—	—	77
Pitching+	—	—	75
botOvr	—	—	42
SIERA	—	—	4.36

Last 1 starts: 2026-06-06 → 2026-06-06. 0/1 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-06-06; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SEA · Logan Gilbert

Last outing 2026-08-30 vs TOR · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	115
Location+	—	—	99
Pitching+	—	—	111
botOvr	—	—	57
SIERA	—	—	4.32

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-19 → 2026-08-30. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-30; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

ATH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.36–0.54]

0.105 R/PA · 0.149 R/out · worst: Geoff Hartlieb (5.74)

SEA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.42R / inningband [0.38–0.46]

0.099 R/PA · 0.140 R/out · worst: Cooper Criswell (4.09)

ATH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Luis Medina	SETUP	SU	3.75	28.6	12.1	1.38	0/10/10	stable
Hogan Harris	SETUP	CL	3.79	29.8	13.6	0.93	14/12/13	stable
Kade Morris	BULK	LR	6.91	13.3	8.0	3.33	0/0/2	insufficient data
Brady Basso	MR	MR	3.19	17.9	3.0	1.22	0/3/0	ramping up
Elvis Alvarado	MR	CL	4.53	29.5	11.5	1.08	5/8/11	stable
Geoff Hartlieb	MR	MR	4.79	9.9	12.7	2.13	0/1/3	ramping down
Chris Roycroft	MR	MR	6.86	14.3	9.5	1.28	1/1/6	ramping up
Yunior Tur	MR	MR	10.52	21.4	11.9	2.00	0/0/0	insufficient data
Scott Blewett	unknown	MR	2.14	22.4	7.5	—	0/2/0	—

SEA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Andrés Muñoz	CLOSER	CL	2.93	38.4	9.5	0.93	24/0/29	stable
Eduard Bazardo	SETUP	MR	4.01	23.4	7.8	0.94	0/26/2	stable
José A. Ferrer	SETUP	SU	4.02	17.5	6.2	0.89	3/13/7	stable
Gabe Speier	SETUP	MR	4.08	21.6	8.6	0.82	1/18/5	stable
Seranthony Domínguez	SETUP	MR	5.06	25.7	13.5	0.89	12/6/18	stable
Cooper Criswell	MR	LR	3.84	18.8	7.8	1.18	1/3/12	stable
Michael Rucker	MR	MR	4.03	25.8	8.6	1.05	0/1/6	stable
Carlos Vargas	unknown	MR	3.57	25.0	5.6	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

7 ATH · 6 SEA

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

ATH

7 R

11H · 4HR · 3BB · 12K · 13LOB

OBPe 0.359 · SLGe 0.694 · K% 30.8

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 2 K · relief 6.3 IP · 5 arms

SEA

6 R

10H · 1HR · 4BB · 2K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.385 · SLGe 0.471 · K% 5.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 7 ER · 12 K · relief 4.3 IP · 5 arms

ATH · standout lines

big nights

Jeff McNeil (1B) · 2-5 | HR, 2 K, 2 RBIHR
Zack Gelof (3B) · 2-5 | HR, 3B, KHR · 7 TB
Max Muncy (DH) · 3-4 | HR, K, RBIHR · 3 H
Alika Williams (SS) · 1-3 | HR, BB, RBIHR

tough nights

Henry Bolte (LF) · 0-3 | 2 BB, 2 K, R0-for-3 · 2 K
Donovan Walton (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

SEA · standout lines

big nights

Cal Raleigh (C) · 2-3 | HR, 2B, BBHR
Josh Naylor (1B) · 3-4 | 2B, RBI3 H · 4 TB

tough nights

Julio Rodríguez (CF) · 0-5 | RBI0-for-5