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today's slate

TB @ TEX

Friday · September 4, 2026·full·gamePk 822852free Saturday

refreshed 518h 11m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Globe Life Field

gametime 8:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

95°F

humidity 40%

wind

11 mph

out to LF

precip

clear

park

TEX

retractable · HP→CF 7°

wind impact on total

+0.02 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

opener / bulk pattern

TEX: Trevor Williams opens → bulk: no confident pattern

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Nick MartinezRHP · TB	Trevor WilliamsRHP · TEX
xERA 2026	4.30	4.04
xwOBA 2026	0.319	0.310
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.024	0.034
xERA 2025	4.04	4.58
xwOBA 2025	0.312	0.330
Outs/TB 25-26	1.90	1.57
FIP 25-26	4.13	4.13
kwERA 25-26	4.08	3.81
K% 25-26	15.9%	19.4%
BB% 25-26	4.9%	6.2%
IP 25+26 combined	319.3	101.0
ERA actual 2026	2.99	3.93
ERA (L4)	3.70	0.00
WHIP (L4)	1.07	0.43
K% (L4)	18.8%	28.6%
BB% (L4)	2.1%	0.0%
IP/gm (L4)	6.08	2.33
L4 window	08/05→08/23 (4 st)	08/09→08/09 (1 outs)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	93 (−6)	91 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.98 (−0.66)	3.78 (+0.71)
Arsenal RV/100	0.72	0.46

away arsenal — TB

RV/100 0.72

Sinker—+0.70xwOBA 0.349
Changeup—+1.80xwOBA 0.228
Cutter—+1.80xwOBA 0.341
4-Seam Fastball—-0.60xwOBA 0.347
Curveball—-1.10xwOBA 0.463
Slider—-6.20xwOBA 0.483

home arsenal · BULK Trevor Williams — TEX

RV/100 0.46

4-Seam Fastball—+1.30xwOBA 0.292
Sweeper—+2.70xwOBA 0.138
Sinker—-4.50xwOBA 0.491

away · TB vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.774

Σ match

2.652

Σ FRV

+3.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Yandy Díaz	0.355	0.315	—
2	1B	Jonathan Aranda	0.348	0.323	-0.6
3	3B	Junior Caminero	0.363	0.357	-9.4
4	C	Liam Hicks	0.315	0.299	+1.6
5	RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	0.312	0.287	+6.0
6	LF	Chandler Simpson	0.262	0.249	+3.0
7	CF	Cedric Mullins	0.266	0.269	+9.2
8	2B	Richie Palacios	0.302	0.285	-4.5
9	SS	Taylor Walls	0.251	0.267	-2.2

home · TEX vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.770

Σ match

2.968

Σ FRV

+22.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Joc Pederson	0.342	0.370	-2.2
2	SS	Corey Seager	0.354	0.384	-0.4
3	LF	Wyatt Langford	0.317	0.339	+3.4
4	RF	Brandon Nimmo	0.356	0.371	-4.5
5	2B	Ezequiel Duran	0.305	0.324	+13.2
6	1B	Jake Burger	0.309	0.334	+4.1
7	CF	Evan Carter	0.278	0.284	+6.7
8	3B	Cody Freeman	0.231	0.269	+1.3
9	C	Elias Díaz	0.278	0.293	+0.8

defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)

Liam Hicks

FRV+1.6
framing+0.1
blocking-0.3
throwing+0.9

defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)

Elias Díaz

FRV+0.8
framing-0.1
blocking+0.1
throwing+0.8

TB · Nick Martinez

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs BAL · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	93
Location+	—	—	110
Pitching+	—	—	103
botOvr	—	—	56
SIERA	—	—	3.98

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-11 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

TEX · Trevor Williams

Last outing 2026-08-09 vs CIN · 2.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 1
Stuff+	—	—	91
Location+	—	—	80
Pitching+	—	—	71
botOvr	—	—	43
SIERA	—	—	3.78

Last 1 outings: 2026-08-09 → 2026-08-09. 0/1 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TB · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.32–0.45]

0.091 R/PA · 0.129 R/out · worst: Steven Matz (4.20)

TEX · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.37–0.49]

0.102 R/PA · 0.144 R/out · worst: Ben Peoples (5.05)

TB

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Bryan Baker	CLOSER	CL	2.94	27.9	8.4	0.96	39/2/28	stable
Kevin Kelly	SETUP	SU	3.14	21.7	4.6	1.10	4/28/9	stable
Tyler Wells	SETUP	SU	3.52	25.4	6.5	1.26	5/15/13	stable
Garrett Cleavinger	SETUP	MR	3.72	30.3	11.8	0.88	2/23/3	stable
Casey Legumina	OPENER	MR	3.53	17.8	5.9	1.25	0/7/7	stable
Steven Matz	SWING	LR	5.20	17.3	7.3	3.53	1/1/1	ramping down
Cam Booser	MR	MR	3.24	30.5	4.7	1.11	0/9/5	stable
Manuel Rodríguez	unknown	MR	5.66	33.3	16.7	—	0/2/0	—

TEX

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jacob Latz	CLOSER	CL	2.38	30.4	8.0	1.28	28/2/26	stable
Jakob Junis	SETUP	SU	3.39	17.9	6.2	1.12	5/17/9	stable
Chase Silseth	SETUP	SU	4.01	26.4	14.5	0.85	0/14/7	stable
Tyler Alexander	OPENER	MR	2.89	20.4	7.1	0.95	4/11/11	stable
Adam Macko	MR	MR	4.47	22.2	10.3	1.04	0/5/2	stable
Robby Ahlstrom	MR	MR	5.04	21.4	6.9	0.82	0/6/3	stable
Ben Peoples	MR	MR	5.91	14.7	11.8	1.06	0/0/1	ramping down
Trevor Williams	unknown	MR	4.18	28.4	8.6	—	0/1/0	—
Jordan Montgomery	unknown	LR	4.96	19.7	6.1	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

7 TB · 6 TEX

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

TB

7 R

12H · 2HR · 1BB · 7K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.366 · SLGe 0.553 · K% 17.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 4 K · relief 2.7 IP · 6 arms

TEX

6 R

7H · 2HR · 5BB · 4K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.324 · SLGe 0.433 · K% 10.8

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 7 K · relief 8.0 IP · 6 arms

TB · standout lines

big nights

Yandy Díaz (DH) · 3-5 | 2B, R3 H · 4 TB
Jonathan Aranda (1B) · 2-4 | HR, 2B, HBPHR
Richie Palacios (2B) · 1-3 | HR, HBP, RBIHR

tough nights

Taylor Walls (SS) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

TEX · standout lines

big nights

Ezequiel Duran (2B) · 1-4 | HR, RBI, RHR
Elias Díaz (C) · 1-3 | HR, 5 RBI, RHR · 5 RBI

tough nights

Wyatt Langford (LF) · 0-40-for-4
Brandon Nimmo (RF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4