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today's slate

BOS @ BAL

Thursday · September 3, 2026·full·gamePk 824796free Saturday

refreshed 544h 20m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Oriole Park at Camden Yards

gametime 7:15 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

87°F

humidity 59%

wind

2 mph

out to LF

precip

clear

park

BAL

open · HP→CF 28°

wind impact on total

+0.03 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Jake BennettLHP · BOS	Brandon YoungRHP · BAL
xERA 2026	3.18	4.36
xwOBA 2026	0.277	0.321
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.015	-0.003
xERA 2025	—	4.27
xwOBA 2025	—	0.320
Outs/TB 25-26	2.51	1.78
FIP 25-26	3.15	4.63
kwERA 25-26	3.60	4.19
K% 25-26	19.8%	18.5%
BB% 25-26	4.8%	8.4%
IP 25+26 combined	93.7	188.0
ERA actual 2026	3.27	3.38
ERA (L4)	5.73	3.18
WHIP (L4)	1.36	1.46
K% (L4)	21.9%	14.4%
BB% (L4)	7.3%	8.2%
IP/gm (L4)	5.50	5.67
L4 window	08/02→08/23 (4 st)	08/11→08/28 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	92 (−1)	100 (+3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.01 (+0.02)	5.22 (+0.65)
Arsenal RV/100	1.25	0.05

away arsenal — BOS

RV/100 1.25

4-Seam Fastball—+0.80xwOBA 0.325
Changeup—+1.80xwOBA 0.192
Sinker—+2.20xwOBA 0.277
Sweeper—-0.40xwOBA 0.258
Cutter—+1.10xwOBA 0.316
Curveball—-1.90xwOBA 0.426

home arsenal — BAL

RV/100 0.05

4-Seam Fastball—+1.40xwOBA 0.329
Split-Finger—-1.80xwOBA 0.315
Slider—-0.80xwOBA 0.268
Sinker—-0.40xwOBA 0.362
Curveball—+0.00xwOBA 0.332

away · BOS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.907

Σ match

3.005

Σ FRV

+29.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Roman Anthony	0.367	0.383	+0.5
2	1B	Mickey Gasper	0.369	0.418	-2.4
3	C	Adley Rutschman	0.338	0.340	+10.1
4	RF	Wilyer Abreu	0.350	0.350	+4.1
5	2B	Nick Sogard	0.319	0.324	+1.1
6	3B	Caleb Durbin	0.287	0.301	+4.2
7	LF	Jarren Duran	0.300	0.302	+4.0
8	CF	Eli White	0.268	0.279	+3.9
9	SS	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	0.309	0.308	+4.2

home · BAL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.901

Σ match

2.624

Σ FRV

-8.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Blaze Alexander	0.358	0.311	-5.4
2	DH	Coby Mayo	0.320	0.300	-1.9
3	CF	Luis Robert Jr.	0.317	0.277	+0.6
4	1B	Pete Alonso	0.392	0.359	-1.2
5	SS	Gunnar Henderson	0.318	0.280	+1.1
6	3B	Christian Encarnacion-Strand	0.346	0.311	+2.6
7	RF	Leody Taveras	0.277	0.265	-2.2
8	LF	Dylan Beavers	0.308	0.287	-6.3
9	C	Carlos Narváez	0.265	0.233	+4.1

defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)

Adley Rutschman

FRV+10.1
framing+5.7
blocking+0.8
throwing+3.6

defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)

Carlos Narváez

FRV+4.1
framing+2.2
blocking+2.4
throwing-0.4

BOS · Jake Bennett

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs SF · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	92
Location+	—	—	105
Pitching+	—	—	96
botOvr	—	—	50
SIERA	—	—	4.01

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-08 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

BAL · Brandon Young

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs ATH · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	98
Pitching+	—	—	98
botOvr	—	—	49
SIERA	—	—	5.22

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-17 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-28; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

BOS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.46]

0.094 R/PA · 0.133 R/out · worst: Brayan Bello (4.37)

BAL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.36–0.47]

0.097 R/PA · 0.138 R/out · worst: Albert Suárez (4.41)

BOS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Aroldis Chapman	CLOSER	CL	2.41	31.7	10.6	0.96	30/0/27	stable
Garrett Whitlock	SETUP	SU	2.20	29.2	4.1	0.97	2/22/7	stable
Erik Miller	SETUP	SU	2.93	34.6	13.3	0.86	4/12/7	stable
Greg Weissert	SETUP	MR	4.13	23.9	7.7	0.96	1/6/4	stable
Brayan Bello	BULK	LR	4.32	16.2	7.6	5.03	1/0/1	ramping up
Jovani Morán	OPENER	MR	4.53	25.9	11.9	1.53	0/4/6	ramping down
Alec Gamboa	MR	MR	3.13	18.0	7.0	1.60	1/1/5	ramping up
Wyatt Olds	unknown	MR	3.69	27.0	10.8	—	0/0/0	—
Raymond Burgos	unknown	MR	3.72	18.5	1.9	—	1/0/0	—

BAL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yennier Cano	SETUP	SU	2.39	22.1	5.5	0.74	3/13/6	stable
Grant Wolfram	SETUP	MR	2.97	25.4	7.3	0.80	1/12/3	stable
Andrew Kittredge	SETUP	CL	3.63	18.9	5.6	0.87	9/9/11	stable
Rico Garcia	SETUP	CL	4.11	26.0	8.5	0.93	6/18/16	stable
Albert Suárez	BULK	LR	4.40	16.5	8.3	2.54	1/0/9	stable
Alex Hoppe	MR	MR	2.88	25.5	9.3	1.14	1/5/13	stable
Josh Walker	MR	MR	3.57	22.5	7.9	1.20	0/3/3	ramping down
Cam Sanders	MR	MR	3.82	26.7	16.2	1.00	3/1/5	stable
Luis De León	unknown	MR	14.09	20.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 BOS · 5 BAL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

BOS

6 R

7H · 4HR · 2BB · 10K · 7LOB

OBPe 0.289 · SLGe 0.588 · K% 26.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 13 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

BAL

5 R

7H · 3HR · 2BB · 13K · 8LOB

OBPe 0.257 · SLGe 0.500 · K% 37.1

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 10 K · relief 2.3 IP · 5 arms

BOS · standout lines

big nights

Roman Anthony (DH) · 1-4 | HR, BB, 3 KHR
Adley Rutschman (C) · 2-4 | 2 HR, 2 RBI, 3 R2-HR night · 8 TB
Nick Sogard (1B) · 1-3 | HR, BB, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Mickey Gasper (1B) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Wilyer Abreu (RF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Jarren Duran (LF) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K

BAL · standout lines

big nights

Luis Robert Jr. (CF) · 1-3 | HR, K, RBIHR
Pete Alonso (1B) · 1-3 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (3B) · 2-3 | HR, BB, KHR

tough nights

Leody Taveras (RF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Dylan Beavers (LF) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K