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today's slate

MIL @ CHC

Thursday · September 3, 2026·full·gamePk 824632free Saturday

refreshed 544h 20m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Wrigley Field

gametime 7:15 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

77°F

humidity 89%

wind

8 mph

cross LF to RF

precip

clear

park

CHC

open · HP→CF 36°

wind impact on total

+0.02 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Logan HendersonRHP · MIL	Kevin GausmanRHP · CHC
xERA 2026	2.73	3.92
xwOBA 2026	0.257	0.306
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.008	0.007
xERA 2025	3.69	3.74
xwOBA 2025	0.299	0.301
Outs/TB 25-26	2.55	2.09
FIP 25-26	3.23	3.50
kwERA 25-26	2.38	3.29
K% 25-26	30.9%	24.1%
BB% 25-26	5.7%	6.5%
IP 25+26 combined	101.7	348.3
ERA actual 2026	2.48	4.52
ERA (L4)	2.05	2.25
WHIP (L4)	0.68	1.17
K% (L4)	25.5%	19.8%
BB% (L4)	4.3%	5.2%
IP/gm (L4)	6.58	6.00
L4 window	08/10→08/28 (4 st)	08/01→08/24 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	100 (−4)	94 (−4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.10 (+1.02)	3.62 (−0.17)
Arsenal RV/100	1.09	0.16

away arsenal — MIL

RV/100 1.09

4-Seam Fastball—+1.50xwOBA 0.240
Changeup—+0.80xwOBA 0.261
Cutter—+0.60xwOBA 0.289

home arsenal — CHC

RV/100 0.16

4-Seam Fastball—+0.70xwOBA 0.343
Split-Finger—+0.20xwOBA 0.235
Slider—-3.00xwOBA 0.434

away · MIL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.950

Σ match

2.927

Σ FRV

+1.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Jackson Chourio	0.338	0.344	+4.7
2	2B	Brice Turang	0.336	0.327	+11.2
3	C	William Contreras	0.337	0.329	-2.3
4	RF	Jake Bauers	0.372	0.374	-9.9
5	1B	Andrew Vaughn	0.334	0.355	-6.9
6	DH	Christian Yelich	0.315	0.335	+0.0
7	CF	Garrett Mitchell	0.348	0.319	+3.2
8	SS	Joey Ortiz	0.295	0.265	+8.7
9	3B	David Hamilton	0.275	0.279	-6.7

home · CHC vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.936

Σ match

2.381

Σ FRV

+50.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0.367	0.292	+25.6
2	RF	Seiya Suzuki	0.342	0.293	+6.5
3	1B	Michael Busch	0.328	0.249	+1.6
4	3B	Alex Bregman	0.317	0.265	+5.9
5	LF	Ian Happ	0.312	0.239	+4.3
6	SS	Nico Hoerner	0.323	0.255	+7.6
7	2B	Pedro Ramírez	0.306	0.254	-0.8
8	DH	Michael Conforto	0.327	0.259	-1.9
9	C	Carson Kelly	0.314	0.275	+1.6

defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)

William Contreras

FRV-2.3
framing-4.4
blocking-0.9
throwing+3.1

defense · CHC catcher (Savant FRV)

Carson Kelly

FRV+1.6
framing+1.9
blocking+1.5
throwing-1.9

MIL · Logan Henderson

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs TEX · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	109
Pitching+	—	—	107
botOvr	—	—	58
SIERA	—	—	4.10

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-16 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-28; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CHC · Kevin Gausman

Last outing 2026-08-24 vs AZ · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	94
Location+	—	—	104
Pitching+	—	—	101
botOvr	—	—	56
SIERA	—	—	3.62

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-07 → 2026-08-24. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-24; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.37–0.45]

0.097 R/PA · 0.137 R/out · worst: Antonio Senzatela (4.04)

CHC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.36–0.50]

0.101 R/PA · 0.143 R/out · worst: Trent Thornton (4.67)

MIL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Trevor Megill	CLOSER	CL	1.72	28.5	6.8	0.97	25/7/21	stable
Aaron Ashby	SETUP	SU	2.89	31.5	11.1	1.23	2/14/5	stable
Abner Uribe	SETUP	SU	2.97	25.9	9.1	0.99	6/20/13	stable
JoJo Romero	SETUP	MR	3.92	22.8	8.3	0.98	0/21/4	stable
Grant Anderson	SETUP	LR	4.43	21.8	9.5	1.11	0/5/8	stable
Chad Patrick	SWING	MR	3.96	21.0	9.6	2.46	5/10/5	ramping down
Antonio Senzatela	MR	MR	3.58	19.7	8.4	1.61	3/10/11	ramping down
DL Hall	MR	MR	3.88	27.9	15.3	1.29	0/5/5	stable

CHC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Daniel Palencia	CLOSER	SU	4.42	26.1	7.6	0.88	3/0/12	stable
Jacob Webb	SETUP	CL	3.76	25.7	8.3	0.98	9/8/14	stable
Ryan Zeferjahn	SETUP	MR	4.00	31.4	13.3	1.15	4/12/15	stable
Caleb Thielbar	SETUP	MR	4.82	29.0	8.7	0.85	3/7/6	stable
Ryan Rolison	OPENER	MR	4.05	22.5	11.0	1.12	1/7/13	stable
Trent Thornton	MR	SU	5.07	15.4	9.3	1.11	3/5/9	ramping down
Tyler Ferguson	MR	MR	6.14	26.9	5.1	0.97	0/4/4	stable
Aaron Civale	SP	MR	4.72	18.3	6.6	4.67	1/0/0	ramping down
Colin Rea	SP	LR	4.81	17.4	8.1	5.03	1/0/1	ramping up

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

1 MIL · 2 CHC

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIL

1 R

5H · 1HR · 1BB · 10K · 8LOB

OBPe 0.182 · SLGe 0.250 · K% 30.3

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 2 ER · 7 K · relief 1.0 IP · 2 arms

CHC

2 R

3H · 1HR · 1BB · 7K · 5LOB

OBPe 0.143 · SLGe 0.269 · K% 25.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 1 ER · 10 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

MIL · standout lines

big nights

Andrew Vaughn (1B) · 1-4 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Jackson Chourio (LF) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Brice Turang (2B) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
William Contreras (C) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

CHC · standout lines

big nights

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF) · 1-4 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Ian Happ (LF) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K