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today's slate

TOR @ CLE

Thursday · September 3, 2026·full·gamePk 824388free Saturday

refreshed 550h 11m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Progressive Field

gametime 1:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

90°F

humidity 58%

wind

10 mph

cross RF to LF

precip

overcast

park

CLE

open · HP→CF 25°

wind impact on total

+0.08 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	José SorianoRHP · TOR	Tanner BibeeRHP · CLE
xERA 2026	4.48	4.30
xwOBA 2026	0.325	0.319
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.031	-0.014
xERA 2025	4.04	3.64
xwOBA 2025	0.312	0.297
Outs/TB 25-26	2.37	1.96
FIP 25-26	3.75	4.44
kwERA 25-26	4.02	3.80
K% 25-26	22.2%	20.3%
BB% 25-26	10.7%	7.0%
IP 25+26 combined	320.3	344.7
ERA actual 2026	3.45	3.88
ERA (L4)	4.22	4.07
WHIP (L4)	1.50	1.32
K% (L4)	17.4%	17.1%
BB% (L4)	8.7%	7.6%
IP/gm (L4)	5.33	6.08
L4 window	08/07→08/23 (4 st)	08/11→08/28 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	97 (−1)	97 (−5)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.67 (+0.59)	4.98 (+0.59)
Arsenal RV/100	0.66	0.25

away arsenal — TOR

RV/100 0.66

Sinker—+0.60xwOBA 0.370
Curveball—+1.30xwOBA 0.268
4-Seam Fastball—-0.20xwOBA 0.380
Split-Finger—+1.10xwOBA 0.255
Slider—-0.10xwOBA 0.288

home arsenal — CLE

RV/100 0.25

Cutter—+0.90xwOBA 0.326
4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.326
Sinker—+0.60xwOBA 0.358
Changeup—-0.60xwOBA 0.241
Curveball—-0.50xwOBA 0.318
Sweeper—+0.00xwOBA 0.311

away · TOR vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.564

Σ match

2.679

Σ FRV

+25.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Brett Bateman	0.271	0.291	+3.5
2	RF	Nathan Lukes	0.287	0.283	+6.2
3	1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0.333	0.347	+4.1
4	LF	Jesús Sánchez	0.329	0.334	-8.2
5	DH	Sean Keys	0.214	0.263	-0.9
6	3B	Josh Smith	0.283	0.303	-3.2
7	SS	Andrés Giménez	0.268	0.280	+15.0
8	2B	Ernie Clement	0.266	0.266	-3.3
9	C	Brandon Valenzuela	0.313	0.312	+11.7

home · CLE vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.831

Σ match

2.983

Σ FRV

+9.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Steven Kwan	0.322	0.339	+7.4
2	RF	Chase DeLauter	0.344	0.358	+0.9
3	DH	José Ramírez	0.342	0.362	+1.6
4	LF	Jo Adell	0.330	0.347	-7.5
5	1B	Nathaniel Lowe	0.332	0.360	-2.2
6	3B	Angel Genao	0.300	0.318	+1.1
7	2B	Travis Bazzana	0.295	0.312	-0.8
8	C	Austin Hedges	0.275	0.298	-1.8
9	SS	Brayan Rocchio	0.291	0.291	+11.2

defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)

Brandon Valenzuela

FRV+11.7
framing+7.5
blocking-0.3
throwing+4.7

defense · CLE catcher (Savant FRV)

Austin Hedges

FRV-1.8
framing+1.6
blocking-1.1
throwing-2.2

TOR · José Soriano

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs NYY · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	97
Location+	—	—	98
Pitching+	—	—	96
botOvr	—	—	49
SIERA	—	—	4.67

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CLE · Tanner Bibee

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs KC · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	97
Location+	—	—	98
Pitching+	—	—	94
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	4.98

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-16 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-28; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TOR · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.37–0.53]

0.105 R/PA · 0.149 R/out · worst: Ricky Tiedemann (5.40)

CLE · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.33–0.46]

0.093 R/PA · 0.131 R/out · worst: Tim Herrin (4.22)

TOR

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Louis Varland	CLOSER	CL	1.81	31.5	6.7	1.11	31/5/31	stable
Paul Sewald	CLOSER	MR	5.34	25.8	6.3	0.91	24/1/33	stable
Tyler Rogers	SETUP	SU	3.23	13.6	8.1	0.97	4/29/6	stable
Mason Fluharty	OPENER	MR	3.73	25.4	10.3	0.76	1/15/5	stable
Braydon Fisher	OPENER	SU	4.16	23.8	12.8	1.05	1/12/7	stable
Spencer Miles	SWING	MR	2.82	22.6	6.2	2.37	1/4/6	ramping up
Joe Mantiply	MR	MR	3.46	21.8	5.1	1.04	0/0/4	ramping down
Brendon Little	MOP_UP	MR	5.72	32.7	19.2	0.95	0/3/2	ramping up
Ricky Tiedemann	unknown	MR	3.84	18.2	18.2	—	0/0/0	—
Michael Lorenzen	SP	LR	5.28	14.6	8.7	4.62	0/0/0	ramping up

CLE

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Cade Smith	CLOSER	CL	2.52	34.3	8.4	1.05	35/0/37	stable
Erik Sabrowski	SETUP	SU	2.83	38.5	15.4	0.78	1/23/2	stable
Colin Holderman	SETUP	MR	3.09	22.9	8.7	0.99	1/11/8	ramping down
Matt Festa	SETUP	MR	3.43	24.6	6.3	0.97	1/7/13	stable
Hunter Gaddis	SETUP	SU	3.85	22.4	9.3	0.86	1/28/2	stable
Tim Herrin	SETUP	MR	4.40	21.7	11.8	0.79	0/15/5	stable
Logan Allen	BULK	LR	4.97	22.4	6.0	3.67	0/0/1	insufficient data
Craig Yoho	MR	MR	5.16	24.2	10.6	1.33	0/1/5	stable
Carlos Hernández	unknown	MR	7.59	25.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 TOR · 3 CLE

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

TOR

6 R

9H · 0HR · 9BB · 10K · 25LOB

OBPe 0.400 · SLGe 0.314 · K% 22.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 6 K · relief 4.3 IP · 5 arms

CLE

3 R

8H · 0HR · 5BB · 6K · 20LOB

OBPe 0.357 · SLGe 0.257 · K% 14.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 10 K · relief 5.0 IP · 7 arms

TOR · standout lines

big nights

Brett Bateman (CF) · 3-5 | K, R3 H
Nathan Lukes (RF) · 2-5 | 2 2B, 2 RBI, R4 TB