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today's slate

CWS @ HOU

Thursday · September 3, 2026·full·gamePk 824144free Saturday

refreshed 549h 11m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Daikin Park

gametime 2:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

92°F

humidity 55%

wind

2 mph

cross RF to LF

precip

21%

overcast

park

HOU

retractable · HP→CF 345°

wind impact on total

neutralnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Luis CastilloRHP · CWS	Hunter BrownRHP · HOU
xERA 2026	4.99	3.58
xwOBA 2026	0.341	0.293
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.012	0.010
xERA 2025	4.04	3.16
xwOBA 2025	0.312	0.278
Outs/TB 25-26	1.79	2.58
FIP 25-26	4.28	3.50
kwERA 25-26	3.68	3.24
K% 25-26	20.8%	27.4%
BB% 25-26	6.5%	9.4%
IP 25+26 combined	302.7	266.3
ERA actual 2026	5.31	3.33
ERA (L4)	5.40	2.82
WHIP (L4)	1.64	1.43
K% (L4)	17.6%	24.5%
BB% (L4)	5.9%	12.8%
IP/gm (L4)	4.58	5.58
L4 window	08/12→08/28 (4 st)	08/11→08/28 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	93 (−4)	105 (+2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.43 (+1.09)	5.33 (+1.10)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.81	0.18

away arsenal — CWS

RV/100 -0.81

4-Seam Fastball—-0.90xwOBA 0.342
Slider—-1.20xwOBA 0.313
Sinker—+0.50xwOBA 0.411
Changeup—-1.50xwOBA 0.293

home arsenal — HOU

RV/100 0.18

4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.244
Sinker—+1.20xwOBA 0.304
Curveball—-0.20xwOBA 0.258
Changeup—-2.00xwOBA 0.432
Slider—-0.90xwOBA 0.328

away · CWS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.916

Σ match

2.746

Σ FRV

+10.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Sam Antonacci	0.344	0.327	-8.4
2	1B	Munetaka Murakami	0.358	0.352	-1.0
3	3B	Miguel Vargas	0.388	0.354	-4.4
4	DH	Andrew Benintendi	0.309	0.292	-1.6
5	RF	Braden Montgomery	0.326	0.300	+0.7
6	SS	Colson Montgomery	0.305	0.284	+8.0
7	2B	Chase Meidroth	0.294	0.277	+9.8
8	CF	Tristan Peters	0.317	0.287	+9.8
9	C	Jake Rogers	0.275	0.273	-2.1

home · HOU vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.838

Σ match

3.125

Σ FRV

-8.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Jeremy Peña	0.333	0.381	-1.7
2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	0.451	0.491	-2.7
3	3B	Isaac Paredes	0.321	0.340	+0.9
4	2B	Jose Altuve	0.275	0.302	-5.2
5	CF	Daulton Varsho	0.288	0.313	+3.0
6	1B	Christian Walker	0.300	0.330	+3.6
7	RF	Taylor Trammell	0.290	0.325	-1.9
8	C	Yainer Diaz	0.299	0.329	-3.9
9	LF	LaMonte Wade	0.281	0.313	-0.3

defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)

Jake Rogers

FRV-2.1
framing-1.6
blocking-1.3
throwing+0.8

defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)

Yainer Diaz

FRV-3.9
framing-3.5
blocking-0.0
throwing-0.3

CWS · Luis Castillo

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs MIN · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	93
Location+	—	—	111
Pitching+	—	—	106
botOvr	—	—	51
SIERA	—	—	5.43

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-17 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-28; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

HOU · Hunter Brown

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs NYM · 6.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	105
Location+	—	—	94
Pitching+	—	—	98
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	5.33

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-16 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CWS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.39–0.49]

0.105 R/PA · 0.148 R/out · worst: Tyler Schweitzer (4.82)

HOU · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.36–0.45]

0.095 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Bennett Sousa (4.31)

CWS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Sean Newcomb	SETUP	SU	2.90	22.6	8.7	1.51	4/11/6	ramping up
Grant Taylor	OPENER	CL	2.24	33.0	8.4	1.33	8/10/11	stable
Bryan Hudson	OPENER	CL	3.17	22.5	7.0	0.98	7/9/8	stable
Jordan Hicks	MR	MR	4.00	27.4	15.3	0.91	1/8/6	stable
Tyler Davis	MR	MR	4.10	20.7	14.4	1.10	1/0/6	stable
Trevor Richards	MR	MR	4.23	21.8	8.0	1.46	1/1/16	stable
Tyler Schweitzer	MR	MR	4.34	12.8	8.0	1.86	1/2/6	ramping up
Hagen Smith	unknown	MR	4.09	34.8	21.7	—	0/1/0	—

HOU

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Josh Hader	CLOSER	CL	1.70	35.8	8.0	0.91	22/0/14	stable
Bryan Abreu	CLOSER	SU	4.68	29.7	17.0	0.92	8/12/21	stable
Steven Okert	SETUP	SU	3.22	26.1	5.4	1.01	0/21/1	stable
Enyel De Los Santos	SETUP	MR	3.71	21.9	6.3	1.07	5/9/13	stable
AJ Blubaugh	SETUP	MR	3.90	24.5	10.0	1.68	1/9/6	ramping up
Kai-Wei Teng	SWING	MR	4.70	22.1	9.5	2.76	0/3/1	ramping up
Bennett Sousa	MOP_UP	MR	4.73	22.2	13.1	0.67	0/7/2	stable
Tatsuya Imai	SP	LR	4.42	27.9	14.9	3.86	0/0/0	ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 CWS · 6 HOU

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CWS

2 R

7H · 0HR · 2BB · 10K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.257 · SLGe 0.212 · K% 28.6

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 6 ER · 5 K · relief 4.0 IP · 4 arms

HOU

6 R

8H · 1HR · 3BB · 5K · 12LOB

OBPe 0.333 · SLGe 0.500 · K% 13.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 10 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

CWS · standout lines

tough nights

Munetaka Murakami (1B) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Colson Montgomery (SS) · 0-4 | K, R0-for-4

HOU · standout lines

big nights

Jose Altuve (2B) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Jeremy Peña (SS) · 0-4 | K0-for-4