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today's slate

MIA @ KC

Thursday · September 3, 2026·full·gamePk 824069free Saturday

refreshed 544h 21m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Kauffman Stadium

gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

96°F

humidity 31%

wind

10 mph

out to LF

precip

clear

park

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

+0.23 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.23 R/G vs neutral. _Open exposed bowl on prairie — summer south winds blow OUT to RF, plays huge_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Sandy AlcantaraRHP · MIA	Michael WachaRHP · KC
xERA 2026	3.63	3.98
xwOBA 2026	0.295	0.308
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.001	-0.010
xERA 2025	4.64	4.16
xwOBA 2025	0.332	0.316
Outs/TB 25-26	2.05	2.04
FIP 25-26	4.00	3.83
kwERA 25-26	4.03	3.90
K% 25-26	18.4%	18.7%
BB% 25-26	7.0%	6.2%
IP 25+26 combined	364.3	343.3
ERA actual 2026	3.46	3.32
ERA (L4)	1.67	2.70
WHIP (L4)	1.04	0.79
K% (L4)	15.7%	23.8%
BB% (L4)	7.4%	1.0%
IP/gm (L4)	6.75	6.67
L4 window	08/08→08/24 (4 st)	08/11→08/28 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	100 (−0)	88 (−10)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.40 (+1.00)	4.21 (−0.01)
Arsenal RV/100	0.75	0.44

away arsenal — MIA

RV/100 0.75

Sinker—+1.80xwOBA 0.294
Changeup—-0.20xwOBA 0.270
4-Seam Fastball—-0.90xwOBA 0.385
Cutter—+2.50xwOBA 0.294
Sweeper—-0.10xwOBA 0.264
Slider—+1.80xwOBA 0.166
Curveball—-0.20xwOBA 0.274

home arsenal — KC

RV/100 0.44

4-Seam Fastball—+0.70xwOBA 0.336
Changeup—+1.60xwOBA 0.228
Cutter—+0.10xwOBA 0.336
Sinker—-0.20xwOBA 0.380
Curveball—-0.70xwOBA 0.299
Slider—-0.70xwOBA 0.297

away · MIA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.763

Σ match

2.769

Σ FRV

+22.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Heriberto Hernández	0.356	0.348	+0.9
2	1B	Kyle Stowers	0.332	0.324	-1.8
3	SS	Otto Lopez	0.323	0.325	+10.7
4	RF	Griffin Conine	0.369	0.383	-1.3
5	2B	Javier Sanoja	0.286	0.288	+4.0
6	CF	Jakob Marsee	0.304	0.307	+3.2
7	DH	Agustín Ramírez	0.274	0.264	-4.1
8	C	Joe Mack	0.293	0.291	+9.6
9	3B	Graham Pauley	0.226	0.236	+1.8

home · KC vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.762

Σ match

2.651

Σ FRV

+14.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	C	Carter Jensen	0.301	0.292	+1.8
2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0.383	0.368	+18.2
3	RF	Jac Caglianone	0.358	0.328	-8.0
4	1B	Salvador Perez	0.303	0.314	-9.2
5	DH	Vinnie Pasquantino	0.325	0.309	+2.7
6	2B	Michael Massey	0.304	0.291	+5.0
7	3B	Josh Rojas	0.225	0.230	-1.0
8	LF	Isaac Collins	0.298	0.278	+0.6
9	CF	Kyle Isbel	0.265	0.240	+3.9

defense · MIA catcher (Savant FRV)

Joe Mack

FRV+9.6
framing+5.9
blocking+0.2
throwing+3.5

defense · KC catcher (Savant FRV)

Carter Jensen

FRV+1.8
framing+2.6
blocking-2.9
throwing+2.2

MIA · Sandy Alcantara

Last outing 2026-08-24 vs BOS · 7.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	103
Pitching+	—	—	104
botOvr	—	—	56
SIERA	—	—	5.40

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-14 → 2026-08-24. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-24; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

KC · Michael Wacha

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs CLE · 8.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	88
Location+	—	—	118
Pitching+	—	—	111
botOvr	—	—	53
SIERA	—	—	4.21

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-17 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-28; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.36–0.55]

0.106 R/PA · 0.151 R/out · worst: Josh Ekness (4.98)

KC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.42–0.54]

0.112 R/PA · 0.159 R/out · worst: Nolan Hoffman (5.40)

MIA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Calvin Faucher	SETUP	CL	2.92	25.1	12.5	0.98	3/15/7	stable
Michael Petersen	SETUP	SU	3.40	28.6	11.1	1.06	1/23/4	stable
Dax Fulton	BULK	MR	3.40	21.2	16.7	2.50	0/0/3	ramping down
Victor Vodnik	MR	MR	4.29	16.7	12.5	1.08	4/6/12	stable
Cade Gibson	MR	MR	4.29	18.2	10.5	1.28	0/4/7	stable
Tyler Zuber	MR	SU	4.57	25.2	4.4	0.87	1/8/5	stable
Josh Ekness	MR	MR	4.84	17.6	14.1	0.89	1/2/2	stable
Jack Ralston	unknown	MR	3.92	18.2	0.0	—	0/2/0	—

KC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Alex Lange	CLOSER	MR	4.77	23.0	11.3	1.03	10/3/20	stable
Connor Thomas	BULK	MR	7.66	13.0	10.1	3.67	0/2/0	insufficient data
Steven Cruz	OPENER	CL	5.22	25.8	8.8	1.06	6/5/7	stable
Jose Cuas	MR	MR	2.96	22.5	14.1	1.27	0/3/4	ramping down
Craig Kimbrel	MR	SU	4.06	21.6	10.8	1.03	1/1/15	stable
Nolan Hoffman	MR	MR	4.15	12.5	12.5	1.56	0/0/2	insufficient data
Easton McGee	MR	LR	5.73	21.1	10.5	1.00	0/0/2	insufficient data
Anthony Gose	unknown	MR	3.09	0.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Nate Pearson	unknown	MR	3.62	20.3	12.2	—	3/4/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 MIA · 7 KC

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIA

3 R

6H · 2HR · 2BB · 10K · 11LOB

OBPe 0.250 · SLGe 0.424 · K% 27.8

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 7 ER · 5 K · relief 2.0 IP · 4 arms

KC

7 R

11H · 1HR · 1BB · 5K · 7LOB

OBPe 0.343 · SLGe 0.588 · K% 14.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 10 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

MIA · standout lines

big nights

Heriberto Hernández (LF) · 1-4 | HR, K, RBIHR
Agustín Ramírez (DH) · 1-4 | HR, K, RBIHR

tough nights

Griffin Conine (RF) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Graham Pauley (3B) · 0-40-for-4

KC · standout lines

big nights

Carter Jensen (C) · 3-4 | HR, 3B, 2BHR · 3 H · 9 TB

tough nights

Isaac Collins (LF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4