Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

STL @ LAD

Thursday · September 3, 2026·full·gamePk 823907free Saturday

refreshed 542h 9m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Dodger Stadium

gametime 10:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

71°F

humidity 63%

wind

6 mph

out to RF

precip

clear

park

LAD

open · HP→CF 28°

wind impact on total

+0.13 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.13 R/G vs neutral. _Dodger Stadium's marine layer + light winds → known suppressor. Strong Santa Ana east winds (rare) flip script_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Quinn MathewsLHP · STL	Tarik SkubalLHP · LAD
xERA 2026	3.32	2.95
xwOBA 2026	0.283	0.267
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.044	-0.003
xERA 2025	—	2.71
xwOBA 2025	—	0.258
Outs/TB 25-26	2.03	2.50
FIP 25-26	3.09	2.47
kwERA 25-26	3.78	2.12
K% 25-26	22.5%	31.7%
BB% 25-26	9.0%	4.3%
IP 25+26 combined	19.7	322.0
ERA actual 2026	5.03	2.84
ERA (L4)	5.52	3.00
WHIP (L4)	1.50	1.04
K% (L4)	26.2%	32.0%
BB% (L4)	7.7%	5.2%
IP/gm (L4)	4.89	6.00
L4 window	08/17→08/28 (3 st)	08/10→08/28 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	90 (−6)	122 (+4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.94 (−0.24)	2.94 (+0.21)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.04	1.11

away arsenal — STL

RV/100 -0.04

4-Seam Fastball—-0.80xwOBA 0.371
Slider—+0.60xwOBA 0.241
Changeup—+1.00xwOBA 0.246

home arsenal — LAD

RV/100 1.11

4-Seam Fastball—+0.70xwOBA 0.296
Changeup—+1.90xwOBA 0.222
Sinker—+0.40xwOBA 0.314
Slider—+2.10xwOBA 0.253
Curveball—-0.30xwOBA 0.207

away · STL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.779

Σ match

2.447

Σ FRV

-12.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	José Fermín	0.294	0.251	-3.3
2	DH	Iván Herrera	0.331	0.290	-4.5
3	RF	Jordan Walker	0.353	0.297	-7.4
4	LF	Joshua Báez	0.316	0.285	-0.2
5	1B	Leo Bernal	0.304	0.295	+0.5
6	3B	Ramón Urías	0.316	0.262	-3.2
7	SS	Thomas Saggese	0.312	0.262	+0.2
8	CF	Nathan Church	0.285	0.256	+1.2
9	C	Pedro Pagés	0.268	0.248	+4.5

home · LAD vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.912

Σ match

2.876

Σ FRV

+0.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Tommy Edman	0.317	0.293	+2.1
2	SS	Mookie Betts	0.329	0.312	+8.1
3	LF	Teoscar Hernández	0.319	0.324	-5.4
4	1B	Freddie Freeman	0.377	0.368	+3.9
5	C	Will Smith	0.384	0.380	-1.1
6	2B	Miguel Rojas	0.315	0.314	+0.8
7	RF	Kyle Tucker	0.325	0.332	-7.2
8	DH	Alex Call	0.278	0.293	+0.9
9	3B	Enrique Hernández	0.268	0.260	-1.1

defense · STL catcher (Savant FRV)

Pedro Pagés

FRV+4.5
framing+2.8
blocking-0.1
throwing+1.8

defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)

Will Smith

FRV-1.1
framing-1.3
blocking+0.6
throwing-0.4

STL · Quinn Mathews

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs PIT · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	90
Location+	—	—	112
Pitching+	—	—	104
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	3.94

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-17 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-28; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

LAD · Tarik Skubal

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs DET · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	122
Location+	—	—	105
Pitching+	—	—	124
botOvr	—	—	62
SIERA	—	—	2.94

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-16 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

STL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.39–0.52]

0.107 R/PA · 0.151 R/out · worst: Justin Bruihl (4.60)

LAD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.32–0.47]

0.093 R/PA · 0.131 R/out · worst: Seth Halvorsen (5.29)

STL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Riley O'Brien	CLOSER	CL	3.59	23.1	9.7	0.99	35/1/33	stable
Justin Bruihl	SETUP	MR	3.86	15.3	8.7	1.11	0/10/5	ramping up
Ryne Stanek	SETUP	SU	4.75	24.5	12.0	0.89	2/24/5	stable
George Soriano	SETUP	SU	4.79	22.9	10.5	0.98	2/20/7	stable
Brycen Mautz	BULK	LR	7.37	25.6	15.4	3.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Ryan Fernandez	MR	MR	3.22	28.0	11.0	1.21	0/2/4	ramping down
Gordon Graceffo	MR	MR	3.96	18.1	11.0	1.18	1/6/10	stable
Luis Gastelum	MR	MR	4.27	30.0	9.1	1.00	0/1/1	stable
Cade Winquest	unknown	MR	3.09	23.1	15.4	—	0/0/0	—

LAD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Tanner Scott	CLOSER	CL	2.32	30.9	5.5	0.94	20/12/21	stable
Edgardo Henriquez	SETUP	SU	2.62	28.6	10.5	1.05	1/9/5	stable
Blake Treinen	SETUP	MR	3.48	25.0	10.0	0.79	1/6/5	stable
Alex Vesia	SETUP	MR	3.60	29.1	15.0	0.76	3/18/6	stable
Kyle Hurt	SETUP	LR	3.72	29.4	12.3	1.01	1/9/10	stable
Jack Dreyer	MR	MR	3.49	29.7	9.0	1.01	1/10/9	stable
Brock Stewart	MR	MR	3.69	24.4	10.3	1.06	1/7/2	stable
Evan Phillips	MR	SU	4.50	28.0	6.7	1.00	0/5/3	stable
Seth Halvorsen	MOP_UP	MR	6.13	16.1	15.2	0.90	0/2/4	stable
Justin Wrobleski	SP	MR	4.29	19.8	5.5	6.02	0/0/1	ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 STL · 3 LAD

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

STL

2 R

12H · 0HR · 1BB · 10K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.368 · SLGe 0.361 · K% 26.3

Their pitching

8.3 IP · 3 ER · 8 K · relief 3.3 IP · 5 arms

LAD

3 R

6H · 0HR · 8BB · 8K · 21LOB

OBPe 0.359 · SLGe 0.258 · K% 20.5

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 10 K · relief 3.3 IP · 5 arms

LAD · standout lines

big nights

Tommy Edman (CF) · 4-5 | 2B, K, 2 R4 H · 5 TB

tough nights

Freddie Freeman (1B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4