Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

SF @ PIT

Thursday · September 3, 2026·full·gamePk 823337free Saturday

refreshed 550h 45m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · PNC Park

gametime 12:35 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

89°F

humidity 60%

wind

8 mph

out to LF

precip

clear

park

PIT

open · HP→CF 115°

wind impact on total

+0.09 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

opener / bulk pattern

PIT: Lake Bachar opens → bulk: no confident pattern

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Blade TidwellRHP · SF	Lake BacharRHP · PIT
xERA 2026	3.65	3.52
xwOBA 2026	0.296	0.291
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.013	-0.005
xERA 2025	5.62	4.48
xwOBA 2025	0.361	0.327
Outs/TB 25-26	1.87	2.22
FIP 25-26	5.25	4.45
kwERA 25-26	4.40	3.57
K% 25-26	18.0%	25.2%
BB% 25-26	9.7%	9.9%
IP 25+26 combined	52.7	146.3
ERA actual 2026	4.54	3.70
ERA (L4)	5.66	3.24
WHIP (L4)	1.26	1.68
K% (L4)	21.2%	26.3%
BB% (L4)	10.6%	18.4%
IP/gm (L4)	5.17	2.08
L4 window	08/10→08/28 (4 st)	06/13→08/23 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	101 (−8)	95 (−3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.18 (+0.85)	8.19 (+4.41)
Arsenal RV/100	0.35	0.78

away arsenal — SF

RV/100 0.35

Sweeper—+0.80xwOBA 0.203
4-Seam Fastball—-2.00xwOBA 0.399
Sinker—+3.40xwOBA 0.353
Slider—+0.50xwOBA 0.353
Curveball—+3.30xwOBA 0.114

home arsenal · BULK Lake Bachar — PIT

RV/100 0.78

4-Seam Fastball—+0.80xwOBA 0.319
Slider—+0.60xwOBA 0.305
Curveball—+2.40xwOBA 0.187
Sweeper—-0.60xwOBA 0.327
Split-Finger—-0.50xwOBA 0.302
Sinker—+2.50xwOBA 0.257

away · SF vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.652

Σ match

2.585

Σ FRV

-1.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Drew Gilbert	0.329	0.295	+2.6
2	DH	Rafael Devers	0.338	0.301	-4.7
3	1B	Bryce Eldridge	0.357	0.338	+0.4
4	CF	Jonah Cox	0.280	0.274	+1.2
5	LF	Turner Hill	0.365	0.337	-0.7
6	C	Andrew Knizner	0.287	0.282	-2.5
7	3B	Shay Whitcomb	0.218	0.255	-0.4
8	2B	Nate Furman	0.244	0.279	+0.1
9	SS	Christian Koss	0.234	0.225	+2.4

home · PIT vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.892

Σ match

2.834

Σ FRV

-7.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	1B	Spencer Horwitz	0.312	0.303	-4.6
2	DH	Brandon Lowe	0.323	0.309	+10.2
3	RF	Bryan Reynolds	0.352	0.354	-3.5
4	2B	Nick Gonzales	0.326	0.324	-9.5
5	CF	Oneil Cruz	0.354	0.357	-0.0
6	LF	Jake Mangum	0.282	0.276	+2.6
7	C	Rafael Flores Jr.	0.340	0.315	-0.1
8	3B	Jacob Gonzalez	0.311	0.310	-2.6
9	SS	Jared Triolo	0.292	0.286	-0.0

defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)

Andrew Knizner

FRV-2.5
framing-1.5
blocking-0.5
throwing-0.5

defense · PIT catcher (Savant FRV)

Rafael Flores Jr.

FRV-0.1
framing+0.4
blocking+0.1
throwing-1.1

SF · Blade Tidwell

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs AZ · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	101
Location+	—	—	80
Pitching+	—	—	80
botOvr	—	—	46
SIERA	—	—	5.18

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-16 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-28; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

PIT · Lake Bachar

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs LAD · 2.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	95
Location+	—	—	94
Pitching+	—	—	86
botOvr	—	—	49
SIERA	—	—	8.19

Last 3 starts: 2026-06-19 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SF · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.47R / inningband [0.39–0.56]

0.111 R/PA · 0.158 R/out · worst: Ryan Walker (5.00)

PIT · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.35–0.43]

0.092 R/PA · 0.131 R/out · worst: Camilo Doval (4.11)

SF

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Dylan Smith	MR	CL	3.34	29.7	10.9	0.88	4/7/5	stable
Jason Foley	MR	MR	3.52	16.4	8.2	1.00	0/2/0	insufficient data
Reiver Sanmartin	MR	MR	4.62	19.4	6.9	1.67	0/3/1	insufficient data
Carson Seymour	MR	SU	4.68	17.5	9.3	2.17	1/5/0	insufficient data
Ryan Walker	MR	MR	5.49	15.3	12.0	0.98	3/5/10	stable
Trent Harris	unknown	SU	1.76	32.7	11.5	—	0/3/0	—
Braxton Roxby	unknown	MR	2.59	18.2	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Cesar Perdomo	unknown	LR	5.09	26.7	6.7	—	0/0/0	—

PIT

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Gregory Soto	CLOSER	SU	3.27	27.9	9.7	0.99	14/10/21	stable
Kirby Yates	CLOSER	MR	3.29	27.8	10.1	0.87	3/1/15	stable
Luke Weaver	SETUP	SU	2.71	26.6	7.2	1.05	1/17/4	stable
Yohan Ramírez	SETUP	MR	3.63	27.1	13.4	1.28	2/7/8	stable
Evan Sisk	SETUP	MR	3.70	25.8	12.4	1.14	0/5/5	stable
Mason Montgomery	OPENER	CL	2.31	38.4	9.5	0.97	7/9/7	stable
Brandon Eisert	OPENER	MR	4.05	26.0	7.8	1.05	0/2/5	stable
Lake Bachar	OPENER	LR	4.64	25.0	9.7	1.53	2/1/10	stable
Camilo Doval	MOP_UP	MR	4.52	23.1	12.4	0.90	1/6/10	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

2 SF · 5 PIT

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SF

2 R

2H · 0HR · 5BB · 9K · 9LOB

OBPe 0.242 · SLGe 0.111 · K% 27.3

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 4 ER · 6 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

PIT

5 R

5H · 0HR · 7BB · 6K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.351 · SLGe 0.192 · K% 16.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 2 ER · 9 K · relief 6.7 IP · 6 arms

SF · standout lines

tough nights

Rafael Devers (DH) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K

PIT · standout lines

tough nights

Jared Triolo (SS) · 0-3 | 2 K, 2 RBI, SB0-for-3 · 2 K