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today's slate

ATH @ SEA

Thursday · September 3, 2026·full·gamePk 823095free Saturday

refreshed 542h 40m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · T-Mobile Park

gametime 9:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

60°F

humidity 73%

roof

likely closed

wind irrelevant

precip

overcast

park

SEA

retractable · HP→CF 36°

wind impact on total

neutralnone roof_closed

Roof closed — wind has no impact tonight.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Jack PerkinsRHP · ATH	Kade AndersonLHP · SEA
xERA 2026	4.01	2.28
xwOBA 2026	0.309	0.235
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.047	0.099
xERA 2025	3.64	—
xwOBA 2025	0.297	—
Outs/TB 25-26	1.89	1.88
FIP 25-26	4.65	5.59
kwERA 25-26	3.67	4.52
K% 25-26	24.5%	19.5%
BB% 25-26	10.1%	12.2%
IP 25+26 combined	134.0	10.0
ERA actual 2026	6.42	4.50
ERA (L4)	9.00	—
WHIP (L4)	1.84	—
K% (L4)	19.8%	—
BB% (L4)	8.8%	—
IP/gm (L4)	4.75	—
L4 window	07/27→08/12 (4 st)	—
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	93 (−6)	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.78 (+0.89)	—
Arsenal RV/100	-0.80	-0.66

away arsenal — ATH

RV/100 -0.80

4-Seam Fastball—-2.50xwOBA 0.392
Sweeper—+0.90xwOBA 0.275
Changeup—-0.20xwOBA 0.214
Cutter—+0.10xwOBA 0.303
Sinker—-8.20xwOBA 0.394
Slider—+2.20xwOBA 0.225

home arsenal — SEA

RV/100 -0.66

4-Seam Fastball—-0.70xwOBA 0.259
Slider—-0.60xwOBA 0.186

away · ATH vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.745

Σ match

2.144

Σ FRV

-19.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Henry Bolte	0.310	0.240	+4.4
2	LF	Zack Gelof	0.305	0.214	-2.1
3	RF	Lawrence Butler	0.321	0.254	-10.3
4	DH	Jonah Heim	0.295	0.208	-5.5
5	1B	Jeff McNeil	0.307	0.238	-2.9
6	2B	Michael Stefanic	0.358	0.294	+0.4
7	C	Brian Serven	0.317	0.271	+0.7
8	SS	Alika Williams	0.247	0.197	+0.7
9	3B	Max Muncy	0.285	0.228	-4.8

home · SEA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

3.092

Σ match

2.941

Σ FRV

-20.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Randy Arozarena	0.349	0.348	-7.0
2	DH	Dominic Canzone	0.358	0.358	+0.4
3	CF	Julio Rodríguez	0.338	0.335	-0.9
4	C	Cal Raleigh	0.308	0.292	-1.4
5	1B	Josh Naylor	0.314	0.326	+2.2
6	2B	Cole Young	0.316	0.295	-2.8
7	RF	Lazaro Montes	0.568	0.414	—
8	SS	J.P. Crawford	0.322	0.329	-7.4
9	3B	Brock Rodden	0.219	0.244	-3.8

defense · ATH catcher (Savant FRV)

Brian Serven

FRV+0.7
framing-0.1
blocking+0.9
throwing-0.1

defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)

Cal Raleigh

FRV-1.4
framing-2.5
blocking+3.2
throwing-2.1

ATH · Jack Perkins

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs HOU · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	93
Location+	—	—	90
Pitching+	—	—	87
botOvr	—	—	47
SIERA	—	—	4.78

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-01 → 2026-08-12. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

SEA · Kade Anderson: no recent outing on file.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

ATH · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.37–0.54]

0.107 R/PA · 0.151 R/out · worst: Geoff Hartlieb (5.74)

SEA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.37–0.50]

0.102 R/PA · 0.144 R/out · worst: Hoby Milner (4.69)

ATH

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Luis Medina	SETUP	SU	3.76	28.1	11.7	1.38	0/9/10	stable
Hogan Harris	SETUP	CL	3.86	29.4	13.8	0.93	13/12/13	stable
Kade Morris	BULK	LR	6.91	13.3	8.0	3.33	0/0/2	insufficient data
Brady Basso	MR	MR	3.19	17.9	3.0	1.22	0/3/0	ramping up
Elvis Alvarado	MR	CL	4.53	29.5	11.5	1.08	5/8/11	stable
Geoff Hartlieb	MR	MR	4.78	9.9	12.7	2.13	0/1/3	ramping down
Chris Roycroft	MR	MR	7.11	13.8	9.4	1.28	1/0/6	ramping up
Yunior Tur	MR	MR	10.52	21.4	11.9	2.00	0/0/0	insufficient data
Scott Blewett	unknown	MR	2.40	20.2	8.1	—	0/2/0	—

SEA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Andrés Muñoz	CLOSER	CL	2.93	38.4	9.5	0.93	24/0/29	stable
José A. Ferrer	SETUP	SU	4.02	17.5	6.2	0.89	3/13/7	stable
Eduard Bazardo	SETUP	MR	4.04	23.3	7.6	0.94	0/26/2	stable
Gabe Speier	SETUP	MR	4.21	20.8	8.8	0.82	1/18/5	stable
Hoby Milner	SETUP	MR	4.89	11.8	5.9	0.94	1/6/7	stable
Seranthony Domínguez	SETUP	MR	5.06	25.7	13.5	0.89	12/6/18	stable
Cooper Criswell	MR	LR	3.84	18.8	7.8	1.18	1/3/12	stable
Michael Rucker	MR	MR	4.03	25.8	8.6	1.05	0/1/6	stable
Carlos Vargas	unknown	MR	1.45	30.0	6.7	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

7 ATH · 4 SEA

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

ATH

7 R

14H · 2HR · 3BB · 8K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.419 · SLGe 0.564 · K% 18.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 18 K · relief 6.0 IP · 5 arms

SEA

4 R

9H · 0HR · 8BB · 18K · 25LOB

OBPe 0.400 · SLGe 0.306 · K% 40.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 7 ER · 8 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

ATH · standout lines

big nights

Zack Gelof (LF) · 2-5 | HR, K, RBIHR
Donovan Walton (2B) · 1-1 | HR, BB, RBIHR

SEA · standout lines

tough nights

Josh Naylor (1B) · 0-5 | 2 K0-for-5 · 2 K