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today's slate

TB @ TEX

Thursday · September 3, 2026·full·gamePk 822853free Saturday

refreshed 543h 16m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Globe Life Field

gametime 8:05 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

90°F

humidity 54%

wind

12 mph

out to LF

precip

clear

park

TEX

retractable · HP→CF 7°

wind impact on total

+0.02 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Shane McClanahanLHP · TB	Cal QuantrillRHP · TEX
xERA 2026	4.18	4.01
xwOBA 2026	0.315	0.309
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.047	-0.024
xERA 2025	—	5.77
xwOBA 2025	—	0.365
Outs/TB 25-26	2.55	1.77
FIP 25-26	3.42	4.67
kwERA 25-26	3.73	4.09
K% 25-26	22.1%	17.4%
BB% 25-26	8.2%	6.5%
IP 25+26 combined	113.0	207.3
ERA actual 2026	3.19	3.01
ERA (L4)	3.32	0.75
WHIP (L4)	0.95	0.92
K% (L4)	19.7%	22.1%
BB% (L4)	6.6%	4.2%
IP/gm (L4)	4.75	6.00
L4 window	07/24→08/28 (4 st)	08/03→08/23 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	107 (−1)	88 (−2)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.49 (−0.62)	4.56 (+0.33)
Arsenal RV/100	0.98	0.55

away arsenal — TB

RV/100 0.98

4-Seam Fastball—+0.70xwOBA 0.382
Changeup—+1.70xwOBA 0.221
Slider—+1.30xwOBA 0.326
Curveball—-0.10xwOBA 0.332

home arsenal — TEX

RV/100 0.55

Sinker—+2.30xwOBA 0.273
Split-Finger—-0.30xwOBA 0.284
4-Seam Fastball—+1.30xwOBA 0.290
Cutter—-1.60xwOBA 0.431
Curveball—+1.50xwOBA 0.246

away · TB vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.753

Σ match

2.791

Σ FRV

+5.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Yandy Díaz	0.355	0.335	—
2	LF	Chandler Simpson	0.262	0.260	+3.1
3	3B	Junior Caminero	0.363	0.384	-10.2
4	1B	Jonathan Aranda	0.350	0.346	-1.0
5	RF	Jonny DeLuca	0.266	0.286	+8.5
6	CF	Cedric Mullins	0.265	0.268	+9.2
7	SS	Jorge Mateo	0.311	0.334	+0.3
8	2B	Richie Palacios	0.303	0.296	-4.0
9	C	Nick Fortes	0.278	0.284	-0.3

home · TEX vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.744

Σ match

2.774

Σ FRV

+6.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Ezequiel Duran	0.304	0.301	+13.2
2	SS	Corey Seager	0.350	0.342	-0.2
3	LF	Wyatt Langford	0.316	0.321	+3.4
4	RF	Brandon Nimmo	0.357	0.357	-4.9
5	2B	Justin Foscue	0.329	0.326	+2.1
6	1B	Jake Burger	0.310	0.327	+4.9
7	DH	Logan O'Hoppe	0.263	0.278	-14.1
8	3B	Cody Freeman	0.238	0.251	+1.2
9	C	Elias Díaz	0.277	0.271	+0.7

defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)

Nick Fortes

FRV-0.3
framing-0.7
blocking-0.0
throwing+0.4

defense · TEX catcher (Savant FRV)

Elias Díaz

FRV+0.7
framing-0.1
blocking+0.0
throwing+0.8

TB · Shane McClanahan

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs SD · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	107
Location+	—	—	89
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	3.49

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-17 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-28; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

TEX · Cal Quantrill

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs LAA · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	88
Location+	—	—	107
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	57
SIERA	—	—	4.56

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TB · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.32–0.45]

0.090 R/PA · 0.128 R/out · worst: Steven Matz (4.20)

TEX · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.37–0.49]

0.101 R/PA · 0.143 R/out · worst: Ben Peoples (5.05)

TB

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Bryan Baker	CLOSER	CL	2.94	27.9	8.4	0.96	39/2/28	stable
Kevin Kelly	SETUP	SU	3.14	21.7	4.6	1.10	4/28/9	stable
Tyler Wells	SETUP	SU	3.52	25.4	6.5	1.26	5/15/13	stable
Garrett Cleavinger	SETUP	MR	3.72	30.3	11.8	0.88	2/23/3	stable
Casey Legumina	OPENER	MR	3.52	18.0	5.5	1.25	0/7/7	stable
Steven Matz	SWING	LR	5.20	17.3	7.3	3.53	1/1/1	ramping down
Cam Booser	MR	MR	3.24	30.5	4.7	1.11	0/9/5	stable
Manuel Rodríguez	unknown	MR	5.66	33.3	16.7	—	0/2/0	—

TEX

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jacob Latz	CLOSER	CL	2.38	30.4	8.0	1.28	28/2/26	stable
Jakob Junis	SETUP	SU	3.39	18.3	6.3	1.12	5/17/9	stable
Chase Silseth	SETUP	SU	3.95	26.5	13.9	0.85	0/14/7	stable
Tyler Alexander	OPENER	MR	2.89	20.4	7.1	0.95	4/11/11	stable
Adam Macko	MR	MR	4.47	22.2	10.3	1.04	0/5/2	stable
Robby Ahlstrom	MR	MR	5.04	21.4	6.9	0.82	0/6/3	stable
Ben Peoples	MR	MR	5.91	14.7	11.8	1.06	0/0/1	ramping down
Trevor Williams	unknown	MR	4.18	28.4	8.6	—	0/1/0	—
Jordan Montgomery	unknown	LR	4.96	19.7	6.1	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

0 TB · 6 TEX

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

TB

0 R

3H · 0HR · 4BB · 6K · 8LOB

OBPe 0.206 · SLGe 0.100 · K% 17.6

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 6 ER · 5 K · relief 3.0 IP · 2 arms

TEX

6 R

9H · 1HR · 3BB · 5K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.343 · SLGe 0.500 · K% 14.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 6 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

TB · standout lines

tough nights

Chandler Simpson (LF) · 0-40-for-4
Junior Caminero (3B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Jonathan Aranda (1B) · 0-3 | BB, 3 K0-for-3 · 3 K

TEX · standout lines

big nights

Corey Seager (SS) · 1-4 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR