Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

PHI @ AZ

Wednesday · September 2, 2026·full·gamePk 825037free Saturday

refreshed 572h 48m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Chase Field

gametime 3:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

102°F

humidity 27%

wind

9 mph

out to RF

precip

clear

park

retractable · HP→CF 23°

wind impact on total

+0.02 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

opener / bulk pattern

AZ: Taylor Clarke opens → bulk: no confident pattern

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Andrew PainterRHP · PHI	Taylor ClarkeRHP · AZ
xERA 2026	4.60	4.33
xwOBA 2026	0.329	0.320
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.019	-0.071
xERA 2025	—	3.66
xwOBA 2025	—	0.298
Outs/TB 25-26	1.71	2.51
FIP 25-26	4.89	3.89
kwERA 25-26	4.07	3.75
K% 25-26	19.7%	18.3%
BB% 25-26	8.6%	4.5%
IP 25+26 combined	98.3	117.7
ERA actual 2026	5.95	2.60
ERA (L4)	4.24	5.40
WHIP (L4)	1.03	2.40
K% (L4)	23.7%	5.9%
BB% (L4)	9.7%	0.0%
IP/gm (L4)	5.83	0.83
L4 window	08/10→08/28 (4 st)	07/27→08/16 (4 outs)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	111 (+9)	100 (+8)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.33 (−0.09)	3.15 (−0.94)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.62	1.37

away arsenal — PHI

RV/100 -0.62

4-Seam Fastball—-2.30xwOBA 0.409
Slider—-1.20xwOBA 0.331
Sweeper—+0.70xwOBA 0.292
Split-Finger—-0.40xwOBA 0.234
Sinker—-0.30xwOBA 0.389
Changeup—+3.60xwOBA 0.131
Curveball—+0.80xwOBA 0.236

home arsenal · BULK Taylor Clarke — AZ

RV/100 1.37

Slider—+2.90xwOBA 0.282
Changeup—+1.00xwOBA 0.315
Sinker—+2.40xwOBA 0.306
Cutter—-1.70xwOBA 0.402

away · PHI vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.889

Σ match

2.974

Σ FRV

-7.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	1B	Kyle Schwarber	0.363	0.385	-0.8
2	SS	Trea Turner	0.294	0.299	-8.9
3	DH	Bryce Harper	0.394	0.415	-9.5
4	2B	Luis Arraez	0.308	0.310	+9.3
5	3B	Bryson Stott	0.329	0.337	+5.7
6	LF	Brandon Marsh	0.307	0.306	-5.3
7	CF	Justin Crawford	0.284	0.280	-0.8
8	C	J.T. Realmuto	0.323	0.343	+1.8
9	RF	Bryan De La Cruz	0.287	0.299	+0.9

home · AZ vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.890

Σ match

3.001

Σ FRV

+20.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Lars Nootbaar	0.344	0.377	+1.3
2	RF	Corbin Carroll	0.344	0.351	+4.6
3	DH	Gabriel Moreno	0.364	0.377	+8.1
4	SS	Geraldo Perdomo	0.330	0.350	+9.1
5	3B	Nolan Arenado	0.285	0.304	+2.7
6	1B	Tim Tawa	0.310	0.305	-1.6
7	C	James McCann	0.286	0.303	-6.7
8	2B	Ildemaro Vargas	0.301	0.306	+2.5
9	CF	Jordan Lawlar	0.326	0.329	+0.0

defense · PHI catcher (Savant FRV)

J.T. Realmuto

FRV+1.8
framing+0.6
blocking-1.1
throwing+2.3

defense · AZ catcher (Savant FRV)

James McCann

FRV-6.7
framing-5.3
blocking-0.1
throwing-1.2

PHI · Andrew Painter

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs LAA · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	111
Location+	—	—	102
Pitching+	—	—	111
botOvr	—	—	61
SIERA	—	—	4.33

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-16 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-28; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

AZ · Taylor Clarke

Last outing 2026-08-16 vs ATL · 0.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	102
Pitching+	—	—	100
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	3.15

Last 3 outings: 2026-08-07 → 2026-08-16. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-16; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

PHI · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.37R / inningband [0.32–0.42]

0.086 R/PA · 0.122 R/out · worst: Orion Kerkering (3.94)

AZ · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)10 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.30–0.51]

0.095 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Blake Walston (5.40)

PHI

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jhoan Duran	CLOSER	CL	1.38	34.0	4.4	0.94	29/0/35	stable
Jonathan Bowlan	SETUP	SU	2.85	31.4	6.9	0.93	2/12/2	stable
Brooks Raley	SETUP	MR	3.35	24.0	8.0	0.89	1/16/5	stable
Orion Kerkering	SETUP	SU	3.59	23.9	11.8	0.94	2/17/5	stable
José Alvarado	SETUP	MR	3.81	26.4	10.0	0.85	1/13/3	stable
Tim Mayza	OPENER	MR	3.22	24.9	6.3	1.15	0/1/9	stable
Chase Shugart	MR	LR	5.09	27.7	9.4	1.13	0/0/10	stable
Alex McFarlane	unknown	MR	2.60	25.0	12.5	—	0/2/0	—

AZ

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Brandyn Garcia	SETUP	SU	2.51	30.9	6.6	0.83	4/15/6	stable
Juan Morillo	SETUP	SU	2.55	28.2	9.1	0.92	2/17/9	stable
Jonathan Loáisiga	SETUP	MR	3.00	18.6	5.1	0.93	1/8/11	stable
Kevin Ginkel	SETUP	MR	3.56	24.0	6.9	0.93	2/11/5	stable
Taylor Clarke	SETUP	MR	3.82	15.5	4.6	1.00	0/13/6	stable
Dennis Santana	SETUP	MR	5.38	20.1	10.5	0.95	2/5/22	stable
Blake Walston	unknown	LR	3.09	0.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Gerardo Carrillo	unknown	MR	3.38	26.3	19.7	—	0/0/0	—
Derek Law	unknown	MR	3.51	9.1	9.1	—	0/0/0	—
Justin Martinez	unknown	MR	4.16	23.8	19.0	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

0 PHI · 1 AZ

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

PHI

0 R

3H · 0HR · 2BB · 9K · 9LOB

OBPe 0.161 · SLGe 0.138 · K% 29.0

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 1 ER · 8 K · relief 1.0 IP · 2 arms

AZ

1 R

3H · 1HR · 0BB · 8K · 7LOB

OBPe 0.107 · SLGe 0.214 · K% 28.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 9 K · relief 7.3 IP · 7 arms

PHI · standout lines

tough nights

Kyle Schwarber (1B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Trea Turner (SS) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K
Luis Arraez (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4

AZ · standout lines

big nights

James McCann (C) · 1-3 | HR, 2 K, RBIHR

tough nights

Tim Tawa (1B) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Jordan Lawlar (LF) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K