Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

SEA @ BOS

Wednesday · September 2, 2026·full·gamePk 824717free Saturday

refreshed 572h 12m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Fenway Park

gametime 4:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

72°F

humidity 64%

wind

12 mph

in from LF

precip

overcast

park

BOS

open · HP→CF 46°

wind impact on total

-0.24 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.24 R/G vs neutral. _Green Monster blocks LF wind — wind-out games still play big to RF only; foul territory tiny_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Bryce MillerRHP · SEA	Patrick SandovalLHP · BOS
xERA 2026	3.18	5.09
xwOBA 2026	0.277	0.344
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.023	0.025
xERA 2025	5.30	—
xwOBA 2025	0.352	—
Outs/TB 25-26	1.78	1.61
FIP 25-26	4.73	4.22
kwERA 25-26	3.71	3.89
K% 25-26	21.7%	23.2%
BB% 25-26	7.6%	10.6%
IP 25+26 combined	184.3	45.0
ERA actual 2026	4.12	4.20
ERA (L4)	9.00	5.14
WHIP (L4)	1.70	1.76
K% (L4)	19.6%	23.5%
BB% (L4)	13.0%	12.2%
IP/gm (L4)	5.00	5.25
L4 window	08/06→08/23 (4 st)	08/11→08/28 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	103 (−4)	98 (−3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.41 (+0.68)	4.55 (+0.22)
Arsenal RV/100	0.14	-1.41

away arsenal — SEA

RV/100 0.14

4-Seam Fastball—+0.60xwOBA 0.295
Split-Finger—+0.70xwOBA 0.218
Slider—-1.40xwOBA 0.363
Sweeper—+2.00xwOBA 0.229
Sinker—-1.50xwOBA 0.323
Cutter—-3.60xwOBA 0.404
Curveball—+0.80xwOBA 0.196

home arsenal — BOS

RV/100 -1.41

Slider—-2.30xwOBA 0.342
Changeup—+1.50xwOBA 0.179
Sinker—-3.40xwOBA 0.511
4-Seam Fastball—-1.30xwOBA 0.411
Sweeper—-3.50xwOBA 0.272

away · SEA vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.927

Σ match

3.259

Σ FRV

-25.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Randy Arozarena	0.347	0.396	-7.5
2	DH	Dominic Canzone	0.356	0.402	+0.3
3	CF	Julio Rodríguez	0.338	0.387	-0.9
4	1B	Josh Naylor	0.315	0.349	+2.8
5	RF	Taylor Ward	0.337	0.374	-1.4
6	2B	Cole Young	0.317	0.353	-3.1
7	3B	Weston Wilson	0.258	0.304	-8.4
8	SS	J.P. Crawford	0.321	0.353	-7.2
9	C	Jhonny Pereda	0.338	0.339	-0.1

home · BOS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.804

Σ match

2.563

Σ FRV

+15.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Roman Anthony	0.360	0.333	+0.5
2	1B	Mickey Gasper	0.368	0.351	-2.3
3	CF	Ceddanne Rafaela	0.280	0.249	+14.8
4	RF	Wilyer Abreu	0.349	0.306	+4.1
5	2B	Nick Sogard	0.322	0.294	+1.4
6	3B	Caleb Durbin	0.286	0.256	+3.8
7	LF	Jarren Duran	0.300	0.262	+4.1
8	SS	Trevor Story	0.249	0.237	-2.7
9	C	Connor Wong	0.290	0.275	-8.2

defense · SEA catcher (Savant FRV)

Jhonny Pereda

FRV-0.1
framing-0.6
blocking+0.3
throwing+0.3

defense · BOS catcher (Savant FRV)

Connor Wong

FRV-8.2
framing-7.3
blocking+0.6
throwing-1.4

SEA · Bryce Miller

Last outing 2026-08-23 vs CHC · 4.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	103
Location+	—	—	116
Pitching+	—	—	118
botOvr	—	—	58
SIERA	—	—	4.41

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-23. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-23; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

BOS · Patrick Sandoval

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs NYY · 5.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	98
Location+	—	—	101
Pitching+	—	—	104
botOvr	—	—	53
SIERA	—	—	4.55

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-16 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-28; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SEA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.37–0.50]

0.102 R/PA · 0.144 R/out · worst: Hoby Milner (4.69)

BOS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.37R / inningband [0.31–0.43]

0.086 R/PA · 0.122 R/out · worst: Alec Gamboa (4.08)

SEA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Andrés Muñoz	CLOSER	CL	2.93	38.4	9.5	0.93	24/0/29	stable
José A. Ferrer	SETUP	SU	4.02	17.6	6.3	0.89	3/13/7	stable
Eduard Bazardo	SETUP	MR	4.04	23.3	7.6	0.94	0/26/2	stable
Gabe Speier	SETUP	MR	4.21	20.8	8.8	0.82	1/18/5	stable
Hoby Milner	SETUP	MR	4.89	11.8	5.9	0.94	1/6/7	stable
Seranthony Domínguez	SETUP	MR	5.10	26.0	13.7	0.89	12/6/18	stable
Michael Rucker	MR	MR	3.74	26.8	9.2	1.05	0/1/6	stable
Cooper Criswell	MR	LR	3.92	18.4	8.0	1.18	1/3/12	stable
Carlos Vargas	unknown	MR	1.45	30.0	6.7	—	0/0/0	—

BOS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Aroldis Chapman	CLOSER	CL	2.41	31.7	10.6	0.96	30/0/27	stable
Garrett Whitlock	SETUP	SU	2.20	29.2	4.1	0.97	2/22/7	stable
Erik Miller	SETUP	SU	2.93	34.6	13.3	0.86	4/12/7	stable
Greg Weissert	SETUP	MR	4.13	23.9	7.7	0.96	1/6/4	stable
Jovani Morán	OPENER	MR	4.53	25.9	11.9	1.53	0/4/6	ramping down
Alec Gamboa	MR	MR	3.12	18.0	7.0	1.60	1/1/5	ramping up
Wyatt Olds	unknown	MR	3.69	27.0	10.8	—	0/0/0	—
Raymond Burgos	unknown	MR	4.30	14.6	2.1	—	1/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

8 SEA · 3 BOS

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SEA

8 R

12H · 0HR · 5BB · 5K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.419 · SLGe 0.351 · K% 11.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 5 K · relief 4.3 IP · 5 arms

BOS

3 R

12H · 1HR · 1BB · 5K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.342 · SLGe 0.540 · K% 13.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 7 ER · 5 K · relief 5.0 IP · 3 arms

SEA · standout lines

big nights

J.P. Crawford (SS) · 3-3 | BB, 2 R3 H

tough nights

Taylor Ward (RF) · 0-5 | K0-for-5
Cole Young (2B) · 0-4 | HBP, K, R0-for-4

BOS · standout lines

big nights

Roman Anthony (DH) · 3-5 | HR, K, RBIHR · 3 H
Wilyer Abreu (RF) · 3-4 | 2 2B, R3 H · 5 TB

tough nights

Nick Sogard (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4
Jarren Duran (LF) · 0-40-for-4
Connor Wong (C) · 0-4 | K0-for-4