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today's slate

MIL @ CHC

Wednesday · September 2, 2026·full·gamePk 824634free Saturday

refreshed 567h 14m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Wrigley Field

gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

88°F

humidity 57%

wind

6 mph

out to CF

precip

clear

park

CHC

open · HP→CF 36°

wind impact on total

+0.23 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.23 R/G vs neutral. _THE wind park — Lake Michigan lake-effect dominates. Wind OUT (south) → HR feast. Wind IN (north off lake) → pitcher's paradise. April/Oct often wind-in cold, June/July often wind-out warm._

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Jacob MisiorowskiRHP · MIL	David PetersonLHP · CHC
xERA 2026	2.01	4.89
xwOBA 2026	0.220	0.338
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.010	-0.004
xERA 2025	3.41	4.61
xwOBA 2025	0.288	0.331
Outs/TB 25-26	3.18	2.00
FIP 25-26	2.59	3.72
kwERA 25-26	1.92	4.07
K% 25-26	36.7%	20.3%
BB% 25-26	7.7%	9.1%
IP 25+26 combined	217.0	292.0
ERA actual 2026	1.73	5.11
ERA (L4)	2.88	3.43
WHIP (L4)	0.72	1.76
K% (L4)	33.7%	23.2%
BB% (L4)	5.4%	11.1%
IP/gm (L4)	6.25	5.25
L4 window	08/02→08/27 (4 st)	08/06→08/28 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	129 (+1)	89 (+0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	2.54 (+0.36)	4.68 (+0.44)
Arsenal RV/100	2.01	-0.64

away arsenal — MIL

RV/100 2.01

4-Seam Fastball—+1.70xwOBA 0.228
Cutter—+3.00xwOBA 0.252
Slider—+2.60xwOBA 0.215
Curveball—+2.00xwOBA 0.158

home arsenal — CHC

RV/100 -0.64

Sinker—+0.00xwOBA 0.426
4-Seam Fastball—-1.50xwOBA 0.331
Slider—+1.40xwOBA 0.252
Changeup—-2.10xwOBA 0.302
Curveball—-3.00xwOBA 0.304

away · MIL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.980

Σ match

3.216

Σ FRV

+7.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Jackson Chourio	0.335	0.359	+4.4
2	2B	Brice Turang	0.338	0.352	+11.8
3	1B	Andrew Vaughn	0.336	0.377	-7.0
4	C	William Contreras	0.337	0.359	-2.0
5	RF	Jake Bauers	0.373	0.407	-8.6
6	CF	Luis Lara	0.319	0.334	+1.3
7	DH	Gary Sánchez	0.339	0.366	-4.6
8	3B	Joey Ortiz	0.295	0.329	+9.5
9	SS	Cooper Pratt	0.308	0.332	+3.2

home · CHC vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.908

Σ match

2.100

Σ FRV

+53.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Pete Crow-Armstrong	0.367	0.256	+25.0
2	DH	Seiya Suzuki	0.341	0.255	+6.6
3	3B	Alex Bregman	0.316	0.223	+5.9
4	1B	Michael Busch	0.329	0.234	+1.8
5	SS	Nico Hoerner	0.324	0.228	+7.7
6	LF	Ian Happ	0.312	0.216	+4.7
7	2B	Matt Shaw	0.307	0.236	+1.3
8	RF	Tyrone Taylor	0.320	0.226	+1.6
9	C	Miguel Amaya	0.292	0.226	-1.2

defense · MIL catcher (Savant FRV)

William Contreras

FRV-2.0
framing-4.1
blocking-1.0
throwing+3.1

defense · CHC catcher (Savant FRV)

Miguel Amaya

FRV-1.2
framing-0.1
blocking-0.6
throwing+0.1

MIL · Jacob Misiorowski

Last outing 2026-08-27 vs NYM · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	129
Location+	—	—	98
Pitching+	—	—	127
botOvr	—	—	65
SIERA	—	—	2.54

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-09 → 2026-08-27. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-27; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CHC · David Peterson

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs CIN · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	89
Location+	—	—	93
Pitching+	—	—	85
botOvr	—	—	46
SIERA	—	—	4.68

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-28; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.37–0.45]

0.097 R/PA · 0.137 R/out · worst: Chad Patrick (4.04)

CHC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.43R / inningband [0.36–0.50]

0.101 R/PA · 0.144 R/out · worst: Trent Thornton (4.72)

MIL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Trevor Megill	CLOSER	CL	1.77	28.1	6.9	0.97	25/7/21	stable
Aaron Ashby	SETUP	SU	2.89	31.8	11.2	1.23	2/13/5	stable
Abner Uribe	SETUP	SU	3.01	25.8	9.3	0.99	6/19/13	stable
JoJo Romero	SETUP	MR	3.98	22.6	8.4	0.98	0/21/4	stable
Grant Anderson	SETUP	LR	4.42	21.8	9.5	1.11	0/5/8	stable
Chad Patrick	SWING	MR	3.96	21.0	9.6	2.46	5/10/5	ramping down
Antonio Senzatela	MR	MR	3.54	20.0	8.1	1.61	3/9/11	ramping down
DL Hall	MR	MR	3.87	27.9	15.3	1.29	0/5/5	stable

CHC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Daniel Palencia	CLOSER	SU	4.49	27.3	8.0	0.88	3/0/12	stable
Jacob Webb	SETUP	CL	3.71	26.0	8.4	0.98	9/8/14	stable
Ryan Zeferjahn	SETUP	MR	3.99	31.4	13.3	1.15	4/12/15	stable
Caleb Thielbar	SETUP	MR	4.95	28.3	8.9	0.85	3/7/6	stable
Ryan Rolison	OPENER	MR	4.11	22.5	11.3	1.12	1/7/13	stable
Trent Thornton	MR	SU	5.12	14.7	9.0	1.11	3/5/9	ramping down
Tyler Ferguson	MR	MR	6.14	26.9	5.1	0.97	0/4/4	stable
Aaron Civale	SP	MR	4.72	18.3	6.6	4.67	1/0/0	ramping down
Colin Rea	SP	LR	4.81	17.5	8.1	5.03	1/0/1	ramping up

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

9 MIL · 5 CHC

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIL

9 R

14H · 1HR · 5BB · 9K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.435 · SLGe 0.487 · K% 19.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 5 ER · 9 K · relief 5.0 IP · 6 arms

CHC

5 R

6H · 1HR · 5BB · 9K · 9LOB

OBPe 0.289 · SLGe 0.333 · K% 23.7

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 9 ER · 9 K · relief 5.3 IP · 7 arms

MIL · standout lines

big nights

Jackson Chourio (LF) · 4-6 | HR, 2B, RBIHR · 4 H · 8 TB

tough nights

Brice Turang (2B) · 0-4 | 2 K, RBI, R0-for-4 · 2 K
Jake Bauers (1B) · 0-4 | BB, 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

CHC · standout lines

big nights

Alex Bregman (3B) · 2-4 | HR, 4 RBI, RHR · 4 RBI

tough nights

Michael Busch (1B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Nico Hoerner (SS) · 0-4 | K0-for-4