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today's slate

SD @ CIN

Wednesday · September 2, 2026·full·gamePk 824470free Saturday

refreshed 576h 43m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Great American Ball Park

gametime 12:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

94°F

humidity 43%

wind

6 mph

out to RF

precip

clear

park

CIN

open · HP→CF 24°

wind impact on total

+0.13 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.13 R/G vs neutral. _Great American small dimensions amplify any wind-out signal; SW summer winds out to RF_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Casey MizeRHP · SD	Brandon WilliamsonLHP · CIN
xERA 2026	3.50	6.81
xwOBA 2026	0.290	0.389
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.003	-0.029
xERA 2025	3.66	—
xwOBA 2025	0.298	—
Outs/TB 25-26	1.91	1.91
FIP 25-26	3.69	6.05
kwERA 25-26	3.48	5.49
K% 25-26	21.9%	14.8%
BB% 25-26	5.9%	15.6%
IP 25+26 combined	258.7	28.0
ERA actual 2026	3.45	6.11
ERA (L4)	3.66	—
WHIP (L4)	1.17	—
K% (L4)	12.0%	—
BB% (L4)	6.0%	—
IP/gm (L4)	4.92	—
L4 window	08/10→08/28 (4 st)	—
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	87 (−2)	—
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	6.69 (+2.54)	—
Arsenal RV/100	0.22	-1.22

away arsenal — SD

RV/100 0.22

4-Seam Fastball—+0.60xwOBA 0.268
Slider—+0.70xwOBA 0.318
Split-Finger—-0.80xwOBA 0.270
Sinker—+0.20xwOBA 0.341
Slurve—-0.20xwOBA 0.277

home arsenal — CIN

RV/100 -1.22

Cutter—-0.20xwOBA 0.397
Changeup—+0.50xwOBA 0.315
4-Seam Fastball—-5.00xwOBA 0.567
Sinker—-5.00xwOBA 0.519
Sweeper—+3.90xwOBA 0.175

away · SD vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.561

Σ match

3.649

Σ FRV

+14.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	2B	Fernando Tatis Jr.	0.374	0.500	+5.2
2	LF	Samad Taylor	0.326	0.388	-0.8
3	CF	Jackson Merrill	0.334	0.439	+8.8
4	1B	Ty France	0.330	0.438	+8.5
5	SS	Xander Bogaerts	0.322	0.426	+3.6
6	C	Ethan Salas	—	0.285	—
7	RF	Austin Hays	0.269	0.382	-2.0
8	DH	Luis Campusano	0.332	0.430	-6.1
9	3B	Jake Cronenworth	0.274	0.363	-2.5

home · CIN vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.851

Σ match

2.687

Σ FRV

-4.0

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Héctor Rodríguez	0.288	0.272	+0.1
2	DH	Elly De La Cruz	0.361	0.344	+4.6
3	1B	Sal Stewart	0.351	0.326	-3.1
4	LF	JJ Bleday	0.347	0.312	-1.0
5	C	Tyler Stephenson	0.337	0.305	-6.4
6	CF	Dane Myers	0.312	0.287	-0.7
7	2B	Juan Brito	0.249	0.274	-1.4
8	SS	Matt McLain	0.308	0.280	+2.0
9	3B	Edwin Arroyo	0.298	0.287	+1.8

defense · SD catcher (Savant FRV)

Ethan Salas

FRV—
framing—
blocking—
throwing—

defense · CIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Tyler Stephenson

FRV-6.4
framing-8.9
blocking+3.1
throwing-0.6

SD · Casey Mize

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs TB · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	87
Location+	—	—	108
Pitching+	—	—	95
botOvr	—	—	49
SIERA	—	—	6.69

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-16 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-28; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CIN · Brandon Williamson: no recent outing on file.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.35–0.46]

0.095 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Wandy Peralta (4.53)

CIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.39–0.49]

0.104 R/PA · 0.148 R/out · worst: Tony Santillan (4.73)

SD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Mason Miller	CLOSER	CL	1.06	47.5	9.1	1.04	32/0/34	stable
Adrian Morejon	SETUP	SU	2.50	29.3	7.5	1.16	2/22/6	stable
Kyle Hart	SETUP	MR	3.23	23.5	8.1	1.40	0/7/5	stable
Bradgley Rodriguez	OPENER	SU	2.43	26.1	7.0	1.09	2/11/5	stable
Wandy Peralta	OPENER	MR	4.09	15.3	8.0	1.17	0/4/14	stable
David Morgan	MR	MR	4.11	24.1	12.9	1.22	0/1/5	stable
Yuki Matsui	MR	MR	4.19	27.1	14.5	1.35	0/8/5	ramping down
Jhony Brito	MR	MR	4.59	20.0	5.0	1.78	0/1/1	insufficient data
Griffin Canning	SP	LR	4.84	22.4	10.2	4.24	0/1/0	ramping down

CIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Emilio Pagán	CLOSER	CL	4.83	24.6	6.3	0.91	20/0/15	stable
Brock Burke	SETUP	SU	3.93	24.1	13.6	0.95	2/16/10	stable
Pierce Johnson	SETUP	MR	4.47	19.9	8.8	0.88	1/7/8	stable
Tony Santillan	SETUP	MR	7.10	18.6	13.0	0.91	5/11/11	stable
Luis Mey	MR	SU	3.63	32.1	14.7	1.24	0/3/0	ramping down
Tejay Antone	MR	MR	4.18	22.2	6.7	1.00	1/8/6	stable
Julian Garcia	MR	LR	4.69	25.0	9.0	1.62	2/3/2	stable
Sam Moll	MOP_UP	MR	4.21	21.4	11.9	0.88	1/7/5	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

3 SD · 7 CIN

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SD

3 R

7H · 1HR · 4BB · 10K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.306 · SLGe 0.344 · K% 27.8

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 7 ER · 7 K · relief 4.0 IP · 5 arms

CIN

7 R

10H · 3HR · 2BB · 7K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.324 · SLGe 0.588 · K% 18.9

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 3 ER · 10 K · relief 3.7 IP · 5 arms

SD · standout lines

big nights

Ty France (1B) · 2-3 | HR, BB, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Jackson Merrill (CF) · 0-40-for-4
Ethan Salas (C) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Luis Campusano (DH) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K

CIN · standout lines

big nights

Héctor Rodríguez (RF) · 1-5 | HR, K, RBIHR
JJ Bleday (RF) · 3-4 | HR, 2B, 2 RBIHR · 3 H · 7 TB
Dane Myers (CF) · 3-4 | K, R3 H
Juan Brito (2B) · 1-3 | HR, BB, KHR

tough nights

Sal Stewart (1B) · 0-40-for-4
Matt McLain (SS) · 0-3 | 2 K, RBI0-for-3 · 2 K
Edwin Arroyo (3B) · 0-40-for-4