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today's slate

TOR @ CLE

Wednesday · September 2, 2026·full·gamePk 824390free Saturday

refreshed 570h 44m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Progressive Field

gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

93°F

humidity 42%

wind

10 mph

out to RF

precip

clear

park

CLE

open · HP→CF 25°

wind impact on total

+0.24 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.24 R/G vs neutral. _Lake Erie wind in from LF in spring/fall — kills LH HR; summer flattens_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Dylan CeaseRHP · TOR	Joey CantilloLHP · CLE
xERA 2026	2.66	4.01
xwOBA 2026	0.254	0.309
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.007	0.021
xERA 2025	3.46	3.71
xwOBA 2025	0.290	0.300
Outs/TB 25-26	2.57	2.12
FIP 25-26	3.02	3.81
kwERA 25-26	2.70	3.69
K% 25-26	32.8%	25.6%
BB% 25-26	10.3%	11.3%
IP 25+26 combined	318.3	231.7
ERA actual 2026	2.33	3.70
ERA (L4)	2.62	2.12
WHIP (L4)	1.08	1.24
K% (L4)	34.4%	27.9%
BB% (L4)	13.5%	16.2%
IP/gm (L4)	6.00	4.25
L4 window	08/11→08/28 (4 st)	07/29→08/26 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	101 (−6)	90 (−5)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.00 (+1.03)	3.44 (−0.84)
Arsenal RV/100	1.42	-0.35

away arsenal — TOR

RV/100 1.42

4-Seam Fastball—+1.00xwOBA 0.291
Slider—+3.20xwOBA 0.209
Changeup—+1.40xwOBA 0.166
Curveball—-0.80xwOBA 0.348
Sinker—+0.70xwOBA 0.318
Sweeper—-1.10xwOBA 0.237

home arsenal — CLE

RV/100 -0.35

4-Seam Fastball—-1.30xwOBA 0.376
Curveball—+0.70xwOBA 0.233
Changeup—-0.20xwOBA 0.265
Cutter—-0.70xwOBA 0.444
Slider—-0.80xwOBA 0.380

away · TOR vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.644

Σ match

2.660

Σ FRV

+36.8

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Brett Bateman	0.269	0.284	+3.5
2	DH	George Springer	0.304	0.317	-0.3
3	1B	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	0.330	0.335	+4.9
4	C	Alejandro Kirk	0.307	0.313	+9.6
5	3B	Kazuma Okamoto	0.319	0.315	-2.7
6	RF	Nathan Lukes	0.289	0.295	+6.3
7	2B	Ernie Clement	0.265	0.246	-3.6
8	SS	Andrés Giménez	0.266	0.260	+14.9
9	LF	Myles Straw	0.295	0.295	+4.1

home · CLE vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.887

Σ match

2.404

Σ FRV

+9.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	CF	Steven Kwan	0.322	0.259	+8.2
2	DH	Chase DeLauter	0.342	0.285	+0.9
3	3B	José Ramírez	0.343	0.286	+1.5
4	RF	Jo Adell	0.330	0.276	-7.5
5	1B	Nathaniel Lowe	0.332	0.259	-2.2
6	LF	Angel Martínez	0.306	0.267	+2.8
7	2B	Travis Bazzana	0.297	0.238	-0.8
8	C	Patrick Bailey	0.309	0.258	+5.3
9	SS	Angel Genao	0.306	0.277	+1.0

defense · TOR catcher (Savant FRV)

Alejandro Kirk

FRV+9.6
framing+6.8
blocking+3.4
throwing-0.6

defense · CLE catcher (Savant FRV)

Patrick Bailey

FRV+5.3
framing+4.3
blocking-1.7
throwing+2.7

TOR · Dylan Cease

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs SEA · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	101
Location+	—	—	94
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	53
SIERA	—	—	4.00

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-16 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-28; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

CLE · Joey Cantillo

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs LAA · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	90
Location+	—	—	93
Pitching+	—	—	85
botOvr	—	—	44
SIERA	—	—	3.44

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-09 → 2026-08-26. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

TOR · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)9 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.37–0.53]

0.106 R/PA · 0.149 R/out · worst: Ricky Tiedemann (5.40)

CLE · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.34–0.45]

0.093 R/PA · 0.132 R/out · worst: Tim Herrin (4.22)

TOR

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Louis Varland	CLOSER	CL	1.80	31.5	6.7	1.11	31/5/31	stable
Paul Sewald	CLOSER	MR	5.37	25.8	6.5	0.91	24/1/33	stable
Tyler Rogers	SETUP	SU	3.23	13.6	8.1	0.97	4/29/6	stable
Mason Fluharty	OPENER	MR	3.72	25.4	10.3	0.76	1/15/5	stable
Braydon Fisher	OPENER	MR	4.23	23.6	13.0	1.05	1/12/7	stable
Spencer Miles	SWING	SU	2.81	22.6	6.2	2.37	1/4/6	ramping up
Joe Mantiply	MR	MR	3.45	21.8	5.1	1.04	0/0/4	ramping down
Brendon Little	MOP_UP	MR	6.04	31.7	19.8	0.95	0/3/2	ramping up
Ricky Tiedemann	unknown	MR	3.83	18.2	18.2	—	0/0/0	—
Michael Lorenzen	SP	LR	5.28	14.6	8.7	4.62	0/0/0	ramping up

CLE

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Cade Smith	CLOSER	CL	2.51	34.3	8.4	1.05	35/0/37	stable
Erik Sabrowski	SETUP	SU	2.83	38.5	15.4	0.78	1/23/2	stable
Colin Holderman	SETUP	MR	3.08	22.9	8.7	0.99	1/11/8	ramping down
Matt Festa	SETUP	MR	3.43	24.6	6.3	0.97	1/7/13	stable
Hunter Gaddis	SETUP	SU	3.85	22.4	9.3	0.86	1/28/2	stable
Tim Herrin	SETUP	MR	4.40	21.7	11.8	0.79	0/15/5	stable
Logan Allen	BULK	LR	4.97	22.4	6.0	3.67	0/0/1	insufficient data
Craig Yoho	MR	MR	5.16	24.2	10.6	1.33	0/1/5	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

11 TOR · 0 CLE

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

TOR

11 R

15H · 2HR · 2BB · 8K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.386 · SLGe 0.571 · K% 18.2

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 9 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

CLE

0 R

6H · 0HR · 0BB · 9K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.212 · SLGe 0.219 · K% 27.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 8 K · relief 3.7 IP · 3 arms

TOR · standout lines

big nights

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B) · 3-4 | HR, 2B, 5 RBIHR · 3 H · 7 TB · 5 RBI
Josh Smith (2B) · 1-2 | HR, RBI, RHR

tough nights

Alejandro Kirk (C) · 0-5 | 2 K0-for-5 · 2 K
Kazuma Okamoto (3B) · 0-4 | 3 K0-for-4 · 3 K

CLE · standout lines

big nights

Chase DeLauter (DH) · 3-4 | 2B3 H · 4 TB

tough nights

Nathaniel Lowe (1B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Angel Martínez (LF) · 0-3 | HBP, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K
Angel Genao (SS) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K