Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

BAL @ COL

Wednesday · September 2, 2026·full·gamePk 824312free Saturday

refreshed 572h 16m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Coors Field

gametime 3:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

89°F

humidity 16%

wind

8 mph

cross LF to RF

precip

clear

park

COL

open · HP→CF 0°

wind impact on total

+0.02 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Trevor RogersLHP · BAL	Tomoyuki SuganoRHP · COL
xERA 2026	3.87	6.94
xwOBA 2026	0.304	0.392
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.007	-0.024
xERA 2025	3.41	5.81
xwOBA 2025	0.288	0.366
Outs/TB 25-26	2.48	1.49
FIP 25-26	3.31	5.39
kwERA 25-26	3.50	4.25
K% 25-26	22.4%	14.9%
BB% 25-26	6.6%	5.3%
IP 25+26 combined	247.3	282.7
ERA actual 2026	4.38	5.23
ERA (L4)	5.14	9.50
WHIP (L4)	1.19	1.94
K% (L4)	29.2%	15.7%
BB% (L4)	4.5%	3.4%
IP/gm (L4)	5.25	4.50
L4 window	08/05→08/27 (4 st)	08/11→08/28 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	102 (+0)	78 (−3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	3.12 (−0.98)	4.71 (−0.18)
Arsenal RV/100	0.16	-1.00

away arsenal — BAL

RV/100 0.16

4-Seam Fastball—+0.70xwOBA 0.320
Changeup—-1.70xwOBA 0.346
Sweeper—+1.00xwOBA 0.213
Sinker—+0.20xwOBA 0.280
Cutter—+0.50xwOBA 0.316

home arsenal — COL

RV/100 -1.00

Split-Finger—+0.10xwOBA 0.317
4-Seam Fastball—-1.40xwOBA 0.416
Sinker—+0.10xwOBA 0.447
Cutter—-3.10xwOBA 0.497
Sweeper—-1.80xwOBA 0.345
Slider—-2.20xwOBA 0.331
Curveball—+0.00xwOBA 0.335

away · BAL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.959

Σ match

3.689

Σ FRV

-11.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Jackson Holliday	0.307	0.389	-4.0
2	1B	Pete Alonso	0.391	0.472	-1.9
3	SS	Gunnar Henderson	0.318	0.410	+1.1
4	LF	Luis Robert Jr.	0.318	0.392	+1.9
5	C	Samuel Basallo	0.320	0.413	-2.1
6	3B	Coby Mayo	0.319	0.382	-1.9
7	RF	Dylan Beavers	0.306	0.377	-6.5
8	2B	Blaze Alexander	0.357	0.434	-5.3
9	CF	Colton Cowser	0.323	0.421	+6.8

home · COL vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.593

Σ match

2.571

Σ FRV

+4.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Jake McCarthy	0.319	0.322	-0.4
2	3B	Connor Norby	0.295	0.281	-0.9
3	C	Hunter Goodman	0.326	0.317	-1.0
4	1B	TJ Rumfield	0.331	0.333	+6.5
5	CF	Cole Carrigg	0.317	0.312	+2.1
6	RF	Jordan Beck	0.250	0.216	-3.0
7	DH	Adael Amador	0.244	0.270	+0.3
8	2B	Ryan Ritter	0.233	0.259	+1.3
9	SS	Ezequiel Tovar	0.278	0.262	-0.1

defense · BAL catcher (Savant FRV)

Samuel Basallo

FRV-2.1
framing-4.5
blocking+0.8
throwing+2.1

defense · COL catcher (Savant FRV)

Hunter Goodman

FRV-1.0
framing+0.1
blocking-0.5
throwing-0.7

BAL · Trevor Rogers

Last outing 2026-08-27 vs STL · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	102
Location+	—	—	109
Pitching+	—	—	110
botOvr	—	—	60
SIERA	—	—	3.12

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-10 → 2026-08-27. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-27; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

COL · Tomoyuki Sugano

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs ATL · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	78
Location+	—	—	97
Pitching+	—	—	80
botOvr	—	—	42
SIERA	—	—	4.71

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-17 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-28; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

BAL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.41R / inningband [0.36–0.46]

0.097 R/PA · 0.138 R/out · worst: Albert Suárez (4.41)

COL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.46–0.51]

0.113 R/PA · 0.160 R/out · worst: Juan Mejia (4.54)

BAL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yennier Cano	SETUP	SU	2.38	22.2	5.6	0.74	3/12/6	stable
Grant Wolfram	SETUP	MR	3.06	25.0	7.4	0.80	1/12/3	stable
Andrew Kittredge	SETUP	CL	3.69	18.8	5.7	0.87	9/9/11	stable
Rico Garcia	SETUP	CL	4.16	26.0	8.7	0.93	6/17/16	stable
Albert Suárez	BULK	LR	4.39	16.5	8.3	2.54	1/0/9	stable
Alex Hoppe	MR	MR	2.84	25.3	8.9	1.14	1/5/13	stable
Josh Walker	MR	MR	3.53	22.1	7.0	1.20	0/3/3	ramping down
Cam Sanders	MR	MR	3.81	26.7	16.2	1.00	3/1/5	stable
Luis De León	unknown	MR	14.09	20.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—

COL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jordan Romano	CLOSER	CL	3.01	25.9	12.1	0.79	14/1/13	stable
Juan Mejia	SETUP	MR	4.30	19.9	12.8	1.10	4/9/16	stable
Jaden Hill	SETUP	MR	4.32	22.3	12.8	0.83	2/12/4	stable
Brennan Bernardino	OPENER	SU	3.46	17.6	6.0	0.86	1/11/7	stable
Jimmy Herget	OPENER	SU	5.21	20.0	11.6	0.99	3/9/10	stable
Zach Agnos	SWING	MR	4.47	15.1	8.0	2.28	2/1/10	stable
Blas Castaño	MR	LR	5.12	20.0	7.1	2.07	0/0/2	stable
Nick Frasso	unknown	MR	2.90	18.9	9.4	—	0/0/0	—
Mark Manfredi	unknown	MR	3.09	27.3	18.2	—	0/0/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 BAL · 6 COL

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

BAL

5 R

10H · 0HR · 3BB · 7K · 23LOB

OBPe 0.283 · SLGe 0.256 · K% 15.2

Their pitching

10.7 IP · 5 ER · 17 K · relief 4.0 IP · 7 arms

COL

6 R

12H · 0HR · 2BB · 17K · 17LOB

OBPe 0.318 · SLGe 0.452 · K% 38.6

Their pitching

11.0 IP · 4 ER · 7 K · relief 5.0 IP · 6 arms

BAL · standout lines

big nights

Blaze Alexander (2B) · 3-5 | RBI, R3 H

tough nights

Gunnar Henderson (SS) · 0-4 | BB, 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Colton Cowser (CF) · 0-5 | 2 K0-for-5 · 2 K

COL · standout lines

big nights

Jake McCarthy (CF) · 2-4 | 3B, 2B, BB5 TB
Cole Carrigg (SS) · 3-5 | 2B, K, RBI3 H · 4 TB

tough nights

Connor Norby (3B) · 0-5 | 2 K, R0-for-5 · 2 K
Jordan Beck (RF) · 0-3 | 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K