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today's slate

CWS @ HOU

Wednesday · September 2, 2026·full·gamePk 824147free Saturday

refreshed 567h 10m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Daikin Park

gametime 8:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

85°F

humidity 71%

wind

12 mph

out to CF

precip

13%

overcast

park

HOU

retractable · HP→CF 345°

wind impact on total

+0.05 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Davis MartinRHP · CWS	Hayden WesneskiRHP · HOU
xERA 2026	4.66	3.87
xwOBA 2026	0.331	0.304
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.007	-0.011
xERA 2025	5.13	4.30
xwOBA 2025	0.347	0.321
Outs/TB 25-26	1.90	2.00
FIP 25-26	4.20	4.08
kwERA 25-26	4.04	3.63
K% 25-26	19.0%	21.6%
BB% 25-26	7.7%	6.8%
IP 25+26 combined	267.7	64.7
ERA actual 2026	4.32	3.86
ERA (L4)	5.09	5.06
WHIP (L4)	1.25	1.25
K% (L4)	19.5%	23.9%
BB% (L4)	6.5%	7.5%
IP/gm (L4)	4.42	5.33
L4 window	07/18→08/09 (4 st)	08/10→08/27 (3 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	91 (+1)	93 (+0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	5.25 (+1.13)	5.27 (+0.91)
Arsenal RV/100	0.06	0.58

away arsenal — CWS

RV/100 0.06

4-Seam Fastball—-0.20xwOBA 0.312
Sinker—+1.10xwOBA 0.354
Curveball—-0.40xwOBA 0.279
Changeup—+1.30xwOBA 0.343
Slider—-1.60xwOBA 0.301
Cutter—+0.00xwOBA 0.407

home arsenal — HOU

RV/100 0.58

Sweeper—+1.70xwOBA 0.229
4-Seam Fastball—-0.30xwOBA 0.361
Sinker—+0.10xwOBA 0.294
Cutter—-2.20xwOBA 0.396
Changeup—+3.40xwOBA 0.178

away · CWS vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.899

Σ match

2.775

Σ FRV

+12.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Sam Antonacci	0.342	0.317	-8.5
2	1B	Munetaka Murakami	0.359	0.332	-1.2
3	3B	Miguel Vargas	0.389	0.373	-4.4
4	DH	Andrew Benintendi	0.310	0.298	-1.6
5	RF	Braden Montgomery	0.322	0.314	+0.7
6	SS	Colson Montgomery	0.306	0.289	+7.9
7	2B	Chase Meidroth	0.294	0.277	+9.6
8	CF	Tristan Peters	0.315	0.304	+9.8
9	C	Drew Romo	0.262	0.271	+0.4

home · HOU vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.797

Σ match

3.009

Σ FRV

-3.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Jeremy Peña	0.330	0.357	-1.6
2	DH	Yordan Alvarez	0.451	0.489	-2.7
3	3B	Isaac Paredes	0.319	0.337	+0.8
4	2B	Jose Altuve	0.274	0.296	-5.6
5	CF	Daulton Varsho	0.287	0.297	+3.3
6	LF	Taylor Trammell	0.293	0.324	-1.9
7	RF	Cam Smith	0.320	0.348	+2.2
8	1B	LaMonte Wade Jr.	0.285	0.306	-1.0
9	C	Christian Vázquez	0.238	0.255	+3.5

defense · CWS catcher (Savant FRV)

Drew Romo

FRV+0.4
framing+0.3
blocking-1.0
throwing+1.1

defense · HOU catcher (Savant FRV)

Christian Vázquez

FRV+3.5
framing+5.6
blocking-1.2
throwing-0.9

CWS · Davis Martin

Last outing 2026-08-09 vs CLE · 1.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	91
Location+	—	—	89
Pitching+	—	—	82
botOvr	—	—	45
SIERA	—	—	5.25

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-24 → 2026-08-09. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-09; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

HOU · Hayden Wesneski

Last outing 2026-08-27 vs NYY · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	93
Location+	—	—	100
Pitching+	—	—	98
botOvr	—	—	53
SIERA	—	—	5.27

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-10 → 2026-08-27. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-27; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

CWS · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.40–0.49]

0.104 R/PA · 0.147 R/out · worst: Tyler Schweitzer (4.82)

HOU · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.36–0.45]

0.095 R/PA · 0.135 R/out · worst: Bennett Sousa (4.31)

CWS

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Sean Newcomb	SETUP	SU	2.87	22.7	8.6	1.51	4/11/6	ramping up
Grant Taylor	OPENER	CL	2.24	33.0	8.4	1.33	8/10/11	stable
Bryan Hudson	OPENER	CL	3.17	22.5	7.0	0.98	7/9/8	stable
Jordan Hicks	MR	MR	4.00	27.4	15.3	0.91	1/8/6	stable
Tyler Davis	MR	MR	4.00	21.1	13.8	1.10	1/0/6	stable
Trevor Richards	MR	MR	4.23	21.8	8.0	1.46	1/1/16	stable
Tyler Schweitzer	MR	MR	4.33	12.8	8.0	1.86	1/2/6	ramping up
Hagen Smith	unknown	MR	4.09	34.8	21.7	—	0/1/0	—

HOU

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Josh Hader	CLOSER	CL	1.71	35.8	8.2	0.91	21/0/14	stable
Bryan Abreu	CLOSER	SU	4.68	29.7	17.0	0.92	8/12/21	stable
Steven Okert	SETUP	SU	3.22	26.1	5.4	1.01	0/21/1	stable
Enyel De Los Santos	SETUP	MR	3.70	21.9	6.3	1.07	5/9/13	stable
AJ Blubaugh	SETUP	MR	3.87	24.9	9.8	1.68	1/9/6	ramping up
Kai-Wei Teng	SWING	MR	4.70	22.1	9.5	2.76	0/3/1	ramping up
Bennett Sousa	MOP_UP	MR	4.73	22.2	13.1	0.67	0/7/2	stable
Tatsuya Imai	SP	LR	4.42	27.9	14.9	3.86	0/0/0	ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

0 CWS · 2 HOU

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

CWS

0 R

3H · 0HR · 3BB · 6K · 15LOB

OBPe 0.212 · SLGe 0.172 · K% 18.2

Their pitching

8.0 IP · 2 ER · 5 K · relief 2.3 IP · 3 arms

HOU

2 R

7H · 0HR · 3BB · 5K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.314 · SLGe 0.258 · K% 14.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 0 ER · 6 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

CWS · standout lines

big nights

Tristan Peters (CF) · 2-3 | 3B, K, SB4 TB

tough nights

Miguel Vargas (3B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4