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today's slate

MIA @ KC

Wednesday · September 2, 2026·full·gamePk 824068free Saturday

refreshed 567h 17m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Kauffman Stadium

gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

97°F

humidity 28%

wind

8 mph

out to LF

precip

clear

park

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

+0.26 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.26 R/G vs neutral. _Open exposed bowl on prairie — summer south winds blow OUT to RF, plays huge_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Eury PérezRHP · MIA	Noah CameronLHP · KC
xERA 2026	3.71	4.12
xwOBA 2026	0.298	0.313
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.011	-0.014
xERA 2025	3.23	4.10
xwOBA 2025	0.281	0.314
Outs/TB 25-26	2.39	2.16
FIP 25-26	3.73	3.91
kwERA 25-26	3.31	3.84
K% 25-26	27.0%	20.7%
BB% 25-26	9.6%	7.7%
IP 25+26 combined	226.0	287.7
ERA actual 2026	3.44	3.98
ERA (L4)	2.57	2.20
WHIP (L4)	1.14	0.73
K% (L4)	25.3%	20.8%
BB% (L4)	16.9%	5.7%
IP/gm (L4)	5.25	7.17
L4 window	08/11→08/28 (4 st)	08/05→08/27 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	113 (−3)	97 (−0)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.84 (+0.93)	4.85 (+0.64)
Arsenal RV/100	0.42	0.37

away arsenal — MIA

RV/100 0.42

4-Seam Fastball—+0.80xwOBA 0.314
Sinker—-0.30xwOBA 0.323
Slider—+0.90xwOBA 0.302
Sweeper—+0.80xwOBA 0.218
Changeup—-1.20xwOBA 0.257
Curveball—+0.40xwOBA 0.330

home arsenal — KC

RV/100 0.37

4-Seam Fastball—+0.20xwOBA 0.381
Changeup—+0.90xwOBA 0.284
Cutter—+1.10xwOBA 0.320
Curveball—+0.30xwOBA 0.230
Slider—+0.10xwOBA 0.319
Sinker—-3.70xwOBA 0.425

away · MIA vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.601

Σ match

2.723

Σ FRV

+18.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Heriberto Hernández	0.352	0.357	+0.8
2	SS	Otto Lopez	0.324	0.321	+10.5
3	1B	Kyle Stowers	0.331	0.331	-1.8
4	DH	Agustín Ramírez	0.279	0.266	-4.1
5	3B	Javier Sanoja	0.286	0.287	+3.8
6	CF	Jakob Marsee	0.303	0.313	+2.9
7	RF	Esteury Ruiz	0.297	0.297	-3.3
8	2B	Jared Serna	0.135	0.251	—
9	C	Joe Mack	0.294	0.300	+10.0

home · KC vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.844

Σ match

2.724

Σ FRV

+14.7

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	C	Carter Jensen	0.292	0.272	+2.0
2	SS	Bobby Witt Jr.	0.382	0.363	+18.1
3	RF	Jac Caglianone	0.360	0.353	-6.7
4	DH	Salvador Perez	0.302	0.314	-9.2
5	1B	Vinnie Pasquantino	0.327	0.301	+2.4
6	3B	Nick Loftin	0.296	0.279	-1.1
7	2B	Michael Massey	0.298	0.282	+5.0
8	LF	John Rave	0.319	0.310	+0.7
9	CF	Kyle Isbel	0.268	0.250	+3.3

defense · MIA catcher (Savant FRV)

Joe Mack

FRV+10.0
framing+6.0
blocking+0.4
throwing+3.6

defense · KC catcher (Savant FRV)

Carter Jensen

FRV+2.0
framing+2.6
blocking-2.7
throwing+2.2

MIA · Eury Pérez

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs WSH · 3.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	113
Location+	—	—	91
Pitching+	—	—	102
botOvr	—	—	54
SIERA	—	—	4.84

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-16 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-28; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

KC · Noah Cameron

Last outing 2026-08-27 vs TOR · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	97
Location+	—	—	105
Pitching+	—	—	109
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	4.85

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-10 → 2026-08-27. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-27; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

MIA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.45R / inningband [0.36–0.54]

0.105 R/PA · 0.149 R/out · worst: Victor Vodnik (4.90)

KC · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.48R / inningband [0.42–0.54]

0.113 R/PA · 0.160 R/out · worst: Nolan Hoffman (5.40)

MIA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Calvin Faucher	SETUP	SU	2.92	25.4	12.7	0.98	2/15/7	stable
Michael Petersen	SETUP	SU	3.44	28.6	11.3	1.06	1/22/4	stable
Dax Fulton	BULK	MR	3.40	21.2	16.7	2.50	0/0/3	ramping down
Victor Vodnik	MR	MR	4.28	16.7	12.5	1.08	4/6/12	stable
Cade Gibson	MR	MR	4.35	17.8	10.6	1.28	0/4/7	stable
Josh Ekness	MR	MR	4.56	17.7	11.4	0.89	1/1/2	stable
Tyler Zuber	MR	SU	4.57	25.2	4.4	0.87	1/8/5	stable
Jack Ralston	unknown	MR	4.09	21.1	0.0	—	0/1/0	—

KC

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Alex Lange	CLOSER	MR	4.34	23.1	11.5	1.03	10/3/20	stable
Connor Thomas	BULK	MR	8.06	12.1	10.6	3.67	0/2/0	insufficient data
Steven Cruz	OPENER	CL	5.22	25.8	8.8	1.06	6/5/7	stable
Jose Cuas	MR	MR	2.75	23.9	13.4	1.27	0/3/4	ramping down
Craig Kimbrel	MR	SU	4.14	21.5	11.0	1.03	1/1/15	stable
Nolan Hoffman	MR	MR	4.15	12.5	12.5	1.56	0/0/2	insufficient data
Easton McGee	MR	LR	5.73	21.1	10.5	1.00	0/0/2	insufficient data
Anthony Gose	unknown	MR	3.09	0.0	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Nate Pearson	unknown	MR	3.69	20.3	12.6	—	3/4/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

9 MIA · 6 KC

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

MIA

9 R

13H · 3HR · 2BB · 11K · 18LOB

OBPe 0.372 · SLGe 0.667 · K% 25.6

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 6 ER · 6 K · relief 4.3 IP · 6 arms

KC

6 R

9H · 3HR · 6BB · 6K · 16LOB

OBPe 0.357 · SLGe 0.556 · K% 14.3

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 8 ER · 11 K · relief 4.0 IP · 6 arms

MIA · standout lines

big nights

Heriberto Hernández (LF) · 2-4 | 2 2B, HBP, 2 RBI4 TB
Kyle Stowers (1B) · 2-5 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR
Javier Sanoja (3B) · 3-5 | HR, K, RBIHR · 3 H
Jakob Marsee (CF) · 1-4 | HR, BB, KHR

tough nights

Agustín Ramírez (DH) · 0-5 | 3 K0-for-5 · 3 K

KC · standout lines

big nights

Carter Jensen (C) · 2-4 | 2 HR, BB, K2-HR night · 8 TB
Salvador Perez (DH) · 1-4 | HR, BB, KHR

tough nights

Vinnie Pasquantino (1B) · 0-50-for-5
Kyle Isbel (CF) · 0-4 | K0-for-4