Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

NYY @ LAA

Wednesday · September 2, 2026·full·gamePk 823983free Saturday

refreshed 565h 50m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Angel Stadium

gametime 9:38 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

73°F

humidity 56%

wind

7 mph

out to CF

precip

clear

park

LAA

open · HP→CF 58°

wind impact on total

+0.20 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.20 R/G vs neutral. _Marine layer in spring suppresses HR; summer warmth flattens; light wind generally_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Cam SchlittlerRHP · NYY	Reid DetmersLHP · LAA
xERA 2026	2.97	3.35
xwOBA 2026	0.268	0.284
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.013	-0.009
xERA 2025	4.10	3.61
xwOBA 2025	0.314	0.296
Outs/TB 25-26	2.56	2.32
FIP 25-26	2.97	3.17
kwERA 25-26	2.73	2.91
K% 25-26	29.9%	28.5%
BB% 25-26	7.6%	7.7%
IP 25+26 combined	236.7	218.7
ERA actual 2026	2.09	3.54
ERA (L4)	2.57	1.88
WHIP (L4)	1.24	0.92
K% (L4)	36.4%	27.0%
BB% (L4)	14.8%	5.6%
IP/gm (L4)	5.25	6.00
L4 window	08/03→08/28 (4 st)	08/05→08/28 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	115 (+3)	100 (−4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.24 (+1.28)	3.98 (+0.58)
Arsenal RV/100	1.06	0.78

away arsenal — NYY

RV/100 1.06

4-Seam Fastball—+1.60xwOBA 0.244
Cutter—+0.40xwOBA 0.291
Sinker—+1.60xwOBA 0.266
Curveball—-0.80xwOBA 0.341

home arsenal — LAA

RV/100 0.78

4-Seam Fastball—+0.40xwOBA 0.318
Slider—+1.80xwOBA 0.221
Curveball—+0.70xwOBA 0.311
Changeup—-0.70xwOBA 0.318

away · NYY vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.836

Σ match

2.595

Σ FRV

+4.3

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	1B	Paul Goldschmidt	0.313	0.294	+5.6
2	LF	Cody Bellinger	0.346	0.325	+8.7
3	RF	Heliot Ramos	0.326	0.297	-5.6
4	DH	Ben Rice	0.372	0.363	-4.1
5	3B	Amed Rosario	0.315	0.259	-7.8
6	CF	Spencer Jones	0.336	0.286	-2.2
7	SS	José Caballero	0.280	0.246	+0.4
8	2B	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	0.295	0.269	+5.5
9	C	Ali Sánchez	0.253	0.254	+3.9

home · LAA vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.701

Σ match

2.515

Σ FRV

-12.1

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Zach Neto	0.307	0.299	-3.1
2	CF	Mike Trout	0.379	0.341	-2.9
3	RF	Wade Meckler	0.315	0.285	+2.1
4	1B	Vaughn Grissom	0.314	0.293	-3.9
5	DH	Moisés Ballesteros	0.289	0.244	-1.5
6	2B	Christian Moore	0.253	0.251	-1.4
7	LF	Jose Siri	0.306	0.292	+1.1
8	3B	Oswald Peraza	0.274	0.253	+0.1
9	C	Travis d'Arnaud	0.264	0.258	-2.4

defense · NYY catcher (Savant FRV)

Ali Sánchez

FRV+3.9
framing+5.3
blocking-0.6
throwing-0.8

defense · LAA catcher (Savant FRV)

Travis d'Arnaud

FRV-2.4
framing-2.5
blocking+0.2
throwing-0.1

NYY · Cam Schlittler

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs BOS · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	115
Location+	—	—	104
Pitching+	—	—	119
botOvr	—	—	56
SIERA	—	—	4.24

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-09 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-28; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

LAA · Reid Detmers

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs PHI · 6.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	100
Location+	—	—	100
Pitching+	—	—	97
botOvr	—	—	50
SIERA	—	—	3.98

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-10 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

NYY · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)6 arms · kwera

0.44R / inningband [0.36–0.52]

0.104 R/PA · 0.147 R/out · worst: Tim Hill (4.72)

LAA · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.30–0.47]

0.090 R/PA · 0.127 R/out · worst: Luke Murphy (4.38)

NYY

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
David Bednar	CLOSER	CL	2.57	27.0	7.5	1.10	31/0/35	stable
Brent Headrick	SETUP	SU	2.25	30.1	7.3	1.01	0/24/6	stable
John Schreiber	SETUP	MR	4.84	17.5	10.7	0.91	1/14/5	stable
Tim Hill	SETUP	MR	5.39	10.8	5.2	0.84	2/10/6	stable
Paul Blackburn	OPENER	SU	3.56	21.1	9.2	1.53	1/10/13	stable
Ryan Yarbrough	MR	LR	3.77	17.3	9.3	1.59	3/1/14	stable
Michael Fulmer	unknown	MR	2.77	25.0	10.7	—	0/2/0	—

LAA

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Samy Natera Jr.	MR	SU	1.75	39.1	10.0	1.16	3/4/3	stable
Tayler Saucedo	MR	MR	2.39	28.6	4.8	0.56	0/5/0	stable
José Fermin	MR	MR	4.01	27.1	10.3	1.11	1/7/7	stable
Ryan Watson	MR	SU	4.20	19.6	8.0	1.61	2/4/21	stable
Mitch Farris	MR	LR	4.95	24.3	11.4	2.12	1/1/6	stable
Ben Joyce	unknown	CL	2.37	36.4	15.2	—	3/2/0	—
Blake Weiman	unknown	MR	2.69	21.3	2.1	—	0/2/0	—
Luke Murphy	unknown	MR	3.33	25.5	17.0	—	0/4/0	—
Sammy Peralta	unknown	MR	5.50	28.3	8.3	—	0/1/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

6 NYY · 3 LAA

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

NYY

6 R

12H · 0HR · 1BB · 11K · 14LOB

OBPe 0.317 · SLGe 0.325 · K% 26.8

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 2 ER · 13 K · relief 2.0 IP · 3 arms

LAA

3 R

4H · 2HR · 0BB · 13K · 5LOB

OBPe 0.118 · SLGe 0.294 · K% 38.2

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 5 ER · 11 K · relief 3.0 IP · 5 arms

NYY · standout lines

big nights

Cody Bellinger (LF) · 3-5 | K, RBI, 2 R3 H

tough nights

Spencer Jones (RF) · 0-4 | 4 K0-for-4 · 4 K

LAA · standout lines

big nights

Vaughn Grissom (1B) · 2-4 | HR, RBI, RHR
Moisés Ballesteros (DH) · 1-4 | HR, 2 K, 2 RBIHR

tough nights

Zach Neto (SS) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Wade Meckler (RF) · 0-4 | K, R0-for-4
Christian Moore (2B) · 0-4 | K0-for-4