Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

STL @ LAD

Wednesday · September 2, 2026·full·gamePk 823906free Saturday

refreshed 567h 7m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Dodger Stadium

gametime 10:10 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

71°F

humidity 59%

wind

6 mph

out to RF

precip

clear

park

LAD

open · HP→CF 28°

wind impact on total

+0.13 R/Gminor out

Minor wind out: +0.13 R/G vs neutral. _Dodger Stadium's marine layer + light winds → known suppressor. Strong Santa Ana east winds (rare) flip script_

opener / bulk pattern

STL: Brycen Mautz opens → bulk: no confident pattern

both opener + bulk shown side-by-side below — lineup matchup keys to the bulk pitcher (who batters see for most of the game)

openers + bulk pitchers · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Brycen MautzLHP · STL	Yoshinobu YamamotoRHP · LAD
xERA 2026	4.60	3.04
xwOBA 2026	0.329	0.271
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.072	-0.026
xERA 2025	—	2.71
xwOBA 2025	—	0.258
Outs/TB 25-26	1.38	2.86
FIP 25-26	3.42	3.09
kwERA 25-26	2.50	2.99
K% 25-26	34.5%	27.4%
BB% 25-26	10.3%	7.3%
IP 25+26 combined	6.0	331.7
ERA actual 2026	9.00	2.56
ERA (L4)	—	1.73
WHIP (L4)	—	0.85
K% (L4)	—	26.3%
BB% (L4)	—	7.1%
IP/gm (L4)	—	6.50
L4 window	—	08/01→08/27 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	102 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	4.02 (+0.59)
Arsenal RV/100	-8.40	1.47

away arsenal · BULK Brycen Mautz — STL

RV/100 -8.40

Slider—-8.40xwOBA 0.351

home arsenal — LAD

RV/100 1.47

4-Seam Fastball—+2.60xwOBA 0.334
Split-Finger—+0.50xwOBA 0.223
Cutter—+0.90xwOBA 0.290
Sinker—+2.40xwOBA 0.247
Curveball—+0.60xwOBA 0.306
Slider—+2.00xwOBA 0.240

away · STL vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.746

Σ match

2.577

Σ FRV

-6.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	LF	Bryan Torres	0.299	0.283	+2.5
2	C	Iván Herrera	0.330	0.291	-4.4
3	1B	Alec Burleson	0.378	0.340	+3.9
4	RF	Jordan Walker	0.354	0.329	-7.3
5	DH	Leo Bernal	0.221	0.267	+0.2
6	3B	Nolan Gorman	0.277	0.257	+0.4
7	2B	José Fermín	0.294	0.272	-2.7
8	CF	Nathan Church	0.284	0.258	+0.8
9	SS	Thomas Saggese	0.309	0.281	+0.2

home · LAD vs LHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

3.046

Σ match

3.370

Σ FRV

+5.5

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Shohei Ohtani	0.403	0.409	—
2	CF	Tommy Edman	0.316	0.423	+2.2
3	SS	Mookie Betts	0.327	0.328	+8.2
4	1B	Freddie Freeman	0.372	0.381	+3.7
5	2B	Miguel Rojas	0.318	0.408	+0.8
6	RF	Kyle Tucker	0.324	0.349	-7.5
7	LF	Teoscar Hernández	0.314	0.311	-5.4
8	3B	Max Muncy	0.349	0.408	+3.2
9	C	Hunter Feduccia	0.323	0.354	+0.2

defense · STL catcher (Savant FRV)

Iván Herrera

FRV-4.4
framing-1.0
blocking+0.4
throwing-3.7

defense · LAD catcher (Savant FRV)

Hunter Feduccia

FRV+0.2
framing+3.3
blocking-1.1
throwing-2.0

STL · Brycen Mautz: no recent outing on file.

LAD · Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Last outing 2026-08-27 vs ATL · 6.1 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	102
Location+	—	—	106
Pitching+	—	—	108
botOvr	—	—	56
SIERA	—	—	4.02

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-08 → 2026-08-27. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-27; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

STL · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.46R / inningband [0.37–0.54]

0.107 R/PA · 0.152 R/out · worst: Gordon Graceffo (4.73)

LAD · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.31–0.47]

0.092 R/PA · 0.131 R/out · worst: Seth Halvorsen (5.29)

STL

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Riley O'Brien	CLOSER	CL	3.63	23.0	9.8	0.99	34/1/33	stable
Justin Bruihl	SETUP	MR	3.90	15.2	8.8	1.11	0/10/5	ramping up
George Soriano	SETUP	SU	4.58	23.0	10.7	0.98	2/20/7	stable
Ryne Stanek	SETUP	SU	4.81	24.6	12.3	0.89	2/24/5	stable
Brycen Mautz	BULK	LR	3.42	34.5	10.3	3.00	0/0/1	insufficient data
Ryan Fernandez	MR	MR	3.27	27.1	10.4	1.21	0/2/4	ramping down
Gordon Graceffo	MR	MR	4.13	16.7	11.2	1.18	1/6/10	stable
Luis Gastelum	MR	MR	4.28	29.9	8.4	1.00	0/1/1	stable
Cade Winquest	unknown	MR	3.09	23.1	15.4	—	0/0/0	—

LAD

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Tanner Scott	CLOSER	CL	2.30	31.5	5.6	0.94	20/12/21	stable
Edgardo Henriquez	SETUP	SU	2.62	28.6	10.5	1.05	1/9/5	stable
Alex Vesia	SETUP	MR	3.60	29.1	15.0	0.76	3/18/6	stable
Kyle Hurt	SETUP	LR	3.71	29.4	12.3	1.01	1/9/10	stable
Jack Dreyer	MR	MR	3.49	30.1	9.1	1.01	1/10/9	stable
Brock Stewart	MR	MR	3.82	25.0	11.1	1.06	1/7/2	stable
Evan Phillips	MR	SU	4.50	28.0	6.7	1.00	0/5/3	stable
Seth Halvorsen	MOP_UP	MR	6.13	16.1	15.2	0.90	0/2/4	stable
Justin Wrobleski	SP	MR	4.29	19.8	5.5	6.02	0/0/1	ramping down

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

8 STL · 6 LAD

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

STL

8 R

9H · 2HR · 2BB · 9K · 8LOB

OBPe 0.275 · SLGe 0.486 · K% 22.5

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 5 ER · 13 K · relief 9.0 IP · 8 arms

LAD

6 R

11H · 2HR · 6BB · 13K · 29LOB

OBPe 0.417 · SLGe 0.513 · K% 27.1

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 7 ER · 9 K · relief 3.0 IP · 4 arms

STL · standout lines

big nights

Joshua Báez (LF) · 2-2 | 2 2B, 2 RBI, R4 TB
Leo Bernal (DH) · 1-4 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR
Thomas Saggese (SS) · 2-4 | HR, K, 3 RBIHR

tough nights

Iván Herrera (C) · 0-4 | BB0-for-4
Alec Burleson (1B) · 0-4 | K, RBI0-for-4
Nolan Gorman (3B) · 0-3 | 3 K0-for-3 · 3 K

LAD · standout lines

big nights

Mookie Betts (SS) · 2-6 | HR, 2B, 2 KHR
Freddie Freeman (1B) · 2-2 | HR, 3 BB, 3 RBIHR
Teoscar Hernández (LF) · 3-5 | 2B, SB3 H · 4 TB

tough nights

Shohei Ohtani (DH) · 0-4 | BB, HBP, 4 K0-for-4 · 4 K
Max Muncy (3B) · 0-3 | BB, 2 K0-for-3 · 2 K