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today's slate

DET @ MIN

Wednesday · September 2, 2026·full·gamePk 823660free Saturday

refreshed 567h 19m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · Target Field

gametime 7:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

86°F

humidity 44%

wind

4 mph

in from CF

precip

clear

park

MIN

open · HP→CF 73°

wind impact on total

-0.11 R/Gminor in

Minor wind in: -0.11 R/G vs neutral. _Northwest summer winds — typically wind-in from LF, suppresses RH HR_

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Drew AndersonRHP · DET	Dean KremerRHP · MIN
xERA 2026	3.81	4.48
xwOBA 2026	0.302	0.325
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	0.020	0.019
xERA 2025	—	3.88
xwOBA 2025	—	0.306
Outs/TB 25-26	1.94	1.84
FIP 25-26	4.18	4.32
kwERA 25-26	3.42	3.71
K% 25-26	26.0%	21.0%
BB% 25-26	9.5%	6.9%
IP 25+26 combined	86.0	234.3
ERA actual 2026	3.87	5.60
ERA (L4)	3.38	4.98
WHIP (L4)	1.45	1.15
K% (L4)	22.5%	23.9%
BB% (L4)	12.5%	10.2%
IP/gm (L4)	4.67	5.42
L4 window	08/11→08/28 (4 st)	08/10→08/28 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	95 (−5)	94 (+3)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	4.12 (+0.58)	3.73 (−0.31)
Arsenal RV/100	-0.16	-0.53

away arsenal — DET

RV/100 -0.16

4-Seam Fastball—+1.30xwOBA 0.312
Changeup—-1.10xwOBA 0.276
Curveball—-0.30xwOBA 0.263
Slider—-5.60xwOBA 0.527

home arsenal — MIN

RV/100 -0.53

Split-Finger—-0.70xwOBA 0.245
4-Seam Fastball—-0.30xwOBA 0.388
Cutter—+1.50xwOBA 0.258
Sinker—-2.40xwOBA 0.468
Curveball—-1.20xwOBA 0.373

away · DET vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.882

Σ match

3.120

Σ FRV

-2.2

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	3B	Kevin McGonigle	0.352	0.405	+0.6
2	2B	Hao-Yu Lee	0.306	0.339	-8.7
3	1B	Colt Keith	0.335	0.366	-0.5
4	DH	Riley Greene	0.360	0.400	-5.0
5	C	Eduardo Valencia	0.302	0.326	+0.3
6	LF	Brett Callahan	0.374	0.364	-0.2
7	CF	Max Clark	0.305	0.323	+2.9
8	SS	John Peck	0.264	0.302	—
9	RF	Zach McKinstry	0.284	0.296	+8.5

home · MIN vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.868

Σ match

2.675

Σ FRV

-21.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	RF	Luke Keaschall	0.316	0.281	-10.5
2	3B	Brooks Lee	0.272	0.237	-2.0
3	2B	Kody Clemens	0.339	0.325	-2.1
4	C	Ryan Jeffers	0.360	0.346	-2.3
5	DH	Josh Bell	0.327	0.314	-0.9
6	LF	Trevor Larnach	0.330	0.297	-1.5
7	1B	Royce Lewis	0.318	0.269	-2.0
8	SS	Kaelen Culpepper	0.327	0.310	-1.0
9	CF	Walker Jenkins	0.279	0.294	+0.4

defense · DET catcher (Savant FRV)

Eduardo Valencia

FRV+0.3
framing+0.1
blocking+0.3
throwing-0.2

defense · MIN catcher (Savant FRV)

Ryan Jeffers

FRV-2.3
framing-0.3
blocking+0.6
throwing-2.6

DET · Drew Anderson

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs LAD · 4.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	95
Location+	—	—	103
Pitching+	—	—	101
botOvr	—	—	54
SIERA	—	—	4.12

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-16 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-28; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

MIN · Dean Kremer

Last outing 2026-08-28 vs CWS · 4.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	94
Location+	—	—	96
Pitching+	—	—	89
botOvr	—	—	47
SIERA	—	—	3.73

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-16 → 2026-08-28. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

DET · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.46R / inningband [0.34–0.57]

0.108 R/PA · 0.152 R/out · worst: Yilber Díaz (5.88)

MIN · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.40R / inningband [0.33–0.48]

0.095 R/PA · 0.134 R/out · worst: Kody Funderburk (4.62)

DET

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kenley Jansen	CLOSER	CL	5.02	27.7	13.5	0.89	17/1/22	stable
Tyler Kinley	SETUP	MR	5.34	22.6	11.6	0.87	1/11/9	stable
Kyle Finnegan	SETUP	MR	5.54	17.6	13.9	1.05	2/14/3	stable
Tyler Holton	OPENER	SU	4.15	18.8	6.0	1.06	2/14/8	stable
Drew Sommers	MR	SU	2.16	38.0	9.9	0.63	0/10/1	stable
Jacob Waguespack	MR	MR	5.10	15.2	9.8	1.30	0/4/4	stable
Beau Brieske	MR	MR	6.46	19.1	10.6	1.17	0/0/6	stable
Yilber Díaz	MOP_UP	LR	12.09	16.0	20.0	0.67	0/0/0	insufficient data
Andrew Sears	unknown	MR	4.29	14.3	3.6	—	0/0/0	—

MIN

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Yoendrys Gómez	CLOSER	CL	4.60	21.2	12.5	1.12	20/6/26	ramping down
Jeff Hoffman	SETUP	SU	2.61	33.5	9.7	0.94	5/16/16	stable
Taylor Rogers	SETUP	MR	4.08	18.8	10.7	0.82	2/9/10	stable
Kody Funderburk	SETUP	MR	4.13	19.5	13.0	0.94	1/10/1	stable
Andrew Morris	OPENER	MR	3.18	21.1	7.9	1.31	4/20/6	ramping down
Garrett Acton	MR	MR	2.28	28.9	7.9	1.67	0/0/3	ramping down
Tommy Nance	MR	MR	3.32	25.8	8.9	1.04	0/6/4	stable
A.J. Minter	MR	SU	3.89	21.2	4.4	1.00	0/6/8	stable
Travis Adams	MR	LR	4.17	26.0	10.2	1.46	2/1/6	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

11 DET · 6 MIN

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

DET

11 R

14H · 1HR · 5BB · 14K · 28LOB

OBPe 0.364 · SLGe 0.490 · K% 25.4

Their pitching

12.0 IP · 4 ER · 14 K · relief 6.3 IP · 7 arms

MIN

6 R

9H · 0HR · 4BB · 14K · 31LOB

OBPe 0.308 · SLGe 0.244 · K% 26.9

Their pitching

12.0 IP · 9 ER · 14 K · relief 8.0 IP · 8 arms

DET · standout lines

big nights

Spencer Torkelson (1B) · 1-4 | HR, K, 2 RBIHR
Max Clark (CF) · 3-4 | 3 2B, 2 BB, RBI3 H · 6 TB

tough nights

Kevin McGonigle (3B) · 0-6 | BB, K, R0-for-6
Zach McKinstry (RF) · 0-40-for-4

MIN · standout lines

big nights

Brooks Lee (3B) · 3-6 | R3 H

tough nights

Kody Clemens (LF) · 0-4 | BB, HBP, K0-for-4
Kaelen Culpepper (SS) · 0-5 | 2 K, R0-for-5 · 2 K
Walker Jenkins (CF) · 0-4 | BB, 3 K, CS0-for-4 · 3 K