Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

SF @ PIT

Wednesday · September 2, 2026·full·gamePk 823339free Saturday

refreshed 570h 48m ago· lineups expected / confirmed may be stale — sweep job runs every 15m

weather · PNC Park

gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

90°F

humidity 52%

wind

9 mph

out to LF

precip

clear

park

PIT

open · HP→CF 115°

wind impact on total

+0.09 R/Gnone cross

Cross wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Landen RouppRHP · SF	Bubba ChandlerRHP · PIT
xERA 2026	3.81	4.12
xwOBA 2026	0.302	0.313
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	-0.002	-0.007
xERA 2025	4.24	3.66
xwOBA 2025	0.319	0.298
Outs/TB 25-26	2.13	2.29
FIP 25-26	3.81	3.81
kwERA 25-26	4.01	4.06
K% 25-26	22.0%	21.4%
BB% 25-26	10.4%	10.3%
IP 25+26 combined	246.3	162.3
ERA actual 2026	4.25	4.26
ERA (L4)	4.79	2.01
WHIP (L4)	1.50	1.07
K% (L4)	18.1%	20.7%
BB% (L4)	14.9%	10.3%
IP/gm (L4)	5.17	5.58
L4 window	08/02→08/27 (4 st)	08/03→08/26 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	94 (−4)	98 (−4)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	6.60 (+2.22)	3.98 (−0.81)
Arsenal RV/100	0.35	0.01

away arsenal — SF

RV/100 0.35

Sinker—+0.00xwOBA 0.397
Curveball—+0.80xwOBA 0.241
Changeup—+1.10xwOBA 0.258
Cutter—-0.10xwOBA 0.299
4-Seam Fastball—-1.30xwOBA 0.193

home arsenal — PIT

RV/100 0.01

4-Seam Fastball—-0.30xwOBA 0.350
Slider—+0.30xwOBA 0.280
Changeup—+0.50xwOBA 0.279
Sinker—+1.40xwOBA 0.319
Sweeper—+0.20xwOBA 0.217
Curveball—-2.60xwOBA 0.307

away · SF vs RHP

projected

Σ xwOBA

2.749

Σ match

2.840

Σ FRV

-8.9

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	1B	Rafael Devers	0.336	0.335	-4.9
2	CF	Drew Gilbert	0.330	0.328	+2.3
3	DH	Bryce Eldridge	0.356	0.393	+0.4
4	RF	Jung Hoo Lee	0.320	0.314	-5.8
5	LF	Turner Hill	0.370	0.374	-1.3
6	3B	Shay Whitcomb	0.222	0.262	-0.9
7	C	Drew Cavanaugh	0.329	0.327	-1.1
8	2B	Nate Furman	0.256	0.291	+0.1
9	SS	Christian Koss	0.230	0.216	+2.4

home · PIT vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.921

Σ match

2.864

Σ FRV

-7.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	1B	Spencer Horwitz	0.315	0.314	-4.0
2	2B	Brandon Lowe	0.324	0.331	+9.8
3	DH	Bryan Reynolds	0.349	0.347	-3.6
4	3B	Nick Gonzales	0.326	0.310	-9.5
5	CF	Oneil Cruz	0.357	0.345	-0.5
6	RF	Esmerlyn Valdez	0.332	0.329	-1.9
7	C	Rafael Flores Jr.	0.341	0.318	-0.3
8	LF	Jake Mangum	0.283	0.271	+2.6
9	SS	Jared Triolo	0.294	0.299	-0.3

defense · SF catcher (Savant FRV)

Drew Cavanaugh

FRV-1.1
framing-1.9
blocking+0.3
throwing+0.5

defense · PIT catcher (Savant FRV)

Rafael Flores Jr.

FRV-0.3
framing+0.3
blocking-0.0
throwing-1.1

SF · Landen Roupp

Last outing 2026-08-27 vs AZ · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	94
Location+	—	—	97
Pitching+	—	—	95
botOvr	—	—	52
SIERA	—	—	6.60

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-08 → 2026-08-27. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-27; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

PIT · Bubba Chandler

Last outing 2026-08-26 vs SD · 5.2 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	98
Location+	—	—	105
Pitching+	—	—	104
botOvr	—	—	55
SIERA	—	—	3.98

Last 3 starts: 2026-08-08 → 2026-08-26. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-26; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

SF · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.46R / inningband [0.38–0.55]

0.109 R/PA · 0.155 R/out · worst: Ryan Walker (4.99)

PIT · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)8 arms · kwera

0.39R / inningband [0.35–0.43]

0.092 R/PA · 0.130 R/out · worst: Camilo Doval (4.03)

SF

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Jason Foley	MR	MR	3.35	17.6	7.4	1.00	0/2/0	insufficient data
Dylan Smith	MR	CL	3.48	29.1	11.2	0.88	3/7/5	stable
Reiver Sanmartin	MR	MR	4.49	20.6	5.9	1.67	0/2/1	insufficient data
Carson Seymour	MR	SU	4.90	17.8	10.0	2.17	1/5/0	insufficient data
Ryan Walker	MR	MR	5.50	15.1	11.6	0.98	3/4/10	stable
Trent Harris	unknown	SU	1.75	32.7	11.5	—	0/3/0	—
Braxton Roxby	unknown	MR	2.58	18.2	0.0	—	0/0/0	—
Cesar Perdomo	unknown	LR	5.08	26.7	6.7	—	0/0/0	—

PIT

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Gregory Soto	CLOSER	SU	3.27	27.9	9.7	0.99	14/10/21	stable
Kirby Yates	CLOSER	MR	3.29	27.8	10.1	0.87	3/1/15	stable
Luke Weaver	SETUP	SU	2.70	26.6	7.2	1.05	1/17/4	stable
Yohan Ramírez	SETUP	MR	3.63	27.1	13.4	1.28	2/7/8	stable
Evan Sisk	SETUP	MR	3.69	25.8	12.4	1.14	0/5/5	stable
Mason Montgomery	OPENER	CL	2.31	38.4	9.5	0.97	7/9/7	stable
Brandon Eisert	OPENER	MR	4.08	26.7	8.0	1.05	0/2/5	stable
Lake Bachar	OPENER	LR	4.64	25.0	9.7	1.53	2/1/10	stable
Camilo Doval	MOP_UP	MR	4.49	23.6	12.2	0.90	1/6/10	stable

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

5 SF · 4 PIT

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

SF

5 R

7H · 1HR · 4BB · 6K · 10LOB

OBPe 0.268 · SLGe 0.364 · K% 14.6

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 3 ER · 8 K · relief 5.0 IP · 6 arms

PIT

4 R

8H · 0HR · 5BB · 8K · 22LOB

OBPe 0.302 · SLGe 0.297 · K% 18.6

Their pitching

10.0 IP · 4 ER · 6 K · relief 5.0 IP · 4 arms

SF · standout lines

big nights

Rafael Devers (1B) · 2-3 | HR, 2 BB, RBIHR

tough nights

Jung Hoo Lee (RF) · 0-5 | 2 K0-for-5 · 2 K

PIT · standout lines

tough nights

Esmerlyn Valdez (RF) · 0-4 | BB, 3 K, RBI0-for-4 · 3 K
Rafael Flores Jr. (C) · 0-4 | BB, K, R0-for-4