Baseball Daily

the daily card · pitcher · lineup · weather · the take

today's slate

NYM @ TB

Wednesday · September 2, 2026·full·gamePk 822931free Saturday

refreshed 570h 47m ago both lineups confirmed

weather · George M. Steinbrenner Field

gametime 6:40 PM EDT · open-meteo

temperature

81°F

humidity 86%

wind

3 mph

out to RF

precip

40%

overcast

park

open · HP→CF 45°

wind impact on total

+0.09 R/Gnone out

Out wind, but too light to move the total.

starters · IP-weighted 2025+2026

metric	Justin HagenmanRHP · NYM	Griffin JaxRHP · TB
xERA 2026	—	4.42
xwOBA 2026	—	0.323
wOBA−xwOBA 2026	—	-0.017
xERA 2025	4.16	3.26
xwOBA 2025	0.316	0.282
Outs/TB 25-26	1.73	2.02
FIP 25-26	3.76	3.34
kwERA 25-26	2.85	2.73
K% 25-26	23.2%	30.0%
BB% 25-26	2.0%	7.7%
IP 25+26 combined	23.7	157.7
ERA actual 2026	—	3.63
ERA (L4)	—	1.66
WHIP (L4)	—	1.06
K% (L4)	—	29.5%
BB% (L4)	—	8.0%
IP/gm (L4)	—	5.42
L4 window	—	07/11→08/02 (4 st)
Stuff+ last 3 (Δ szn)	—	105 (−1)
SIERA last 3 (Δ szn)	—	3.27 (−0.25)
Arsenal RV/100	—	0.16

away arsenal — NYM

RV/100 —

No Savant arsenal data.

home arsenal — TB

RV/100 0.16

Sweeper—+0.70xwOBA 0.303
Changeup—+0.60xwOBA 0.265
Sinker—+0.10xwOBA 0.342
4-Seam Fastball—-1.10xwOBA 0.359
Curveball—+0.80xwOBA 0.256
Cutter—-1.60xwOBA 0.661

away · NYM vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.945

Σ match

2.972

Σ FRV

+9.4

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	SS	Francisco Lindor	0.338	0.337	-0.4
2	DH	Juan Soto	0.421	0.429	-3.3
3	3B	Bo Bichette	0.320	0.316	-1.7
4	RF	Carson Benge	0.336	0.327	+6.2
5	1B	Jared Young	0.309	0.309	-0.4
6	2B	Marcus Semien	0.306	0.326	-5.9
7	CF	A.J. Ewing	0.314	0.322	+6.5
8	LF	Brett Baty	0.303	0.306	-1.1
9	C	Luis Torrens	0.298	0.299	+9.3

home · TB vs RHP

confirmed

Σ xwOBA

2.783

Σ match

—

Σ FRV

+1.6

#	pos	batter	xwOBA	match	FRV
1	DH	Yandy Díaz	0.355	—	—
2	1B	Jonathan Aranda	0.349	—	-0.8
3	3B	Junior Caminero	0.365	—	-10.7
4	C	Liam Hicks	0.317	—	+1.0
5	LF	Chandler Simpson	0.262	—	+3.0
6	RF	Victor Mesa Jr.	0.319	—	+6.2
7	CF	Cedric Mullins	0.263	—	+9.3
8	2B	Richie Palacios	0.302	—	-4.0
9	SS	Taylor Walls	0.251	—	-2.4

defense · NYM catcher (Savant FRV)

Luis Torrens

FRV+9.3
framing+5.5
blocking+1.5
throwing+2.3

defense · TB catcher (Savant FRV)

Liam Hicks

FRV+1.0
framing-0.3
blocking-0.5
throwing+1.0

NYM · Justin Hagenman: no recent outing on file.

TB · Griffin Jax

Last outing 2026-08-02 vs CWS · 5.0 IP

Latest-start ratings unavailable: the provider rating has not been matched to this official outing.

Metric	Prior games	Latest (Δ)	Last 3
Stuff+	—	—	105
Location+	—	—	109
Pitching+	—	—	113
botOvr	—	—	60
SIERA	—	—	3.27

Last 3 starts: 2026-07-22 → 2026-08-02. 0/3 outings have verified ratings.

Complete-window ratings are pending. Available dated context:

Prior games = unweighted average before 2026-08-02; SIERA here is an average of game ratings, not aggregate season SIERA. Stuff+ family: 100 average. PitchingBot: 50 average. Lower SIERA/botERA is better.

Bullpen depth chart · per side

Derived = season-usage role from pitcher-profiles.json. Card tag = what tonight's card thinks. When they disagree, the sim picker may target wrong arms in save windows. Mean IP/app distinguishes 1-IP relievers from bulk arms.

NYM · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.30–0.46]

0.090 R/PA · 0.127 R/out · worst: Jefry Yan (4.48)

TB · bridge (non-closer, 6-8)7 arms · kwera

0.38R / inningband [0.30–0.46]

0.090 R/PA · 0.128 R/out · worst: Manuel Rodríguez (4.60)

NYM

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Kodai Senga	BULK	CL	5.98	25.8	14.7	3.39	5/0/1	ramping down
Austin Warren	OPENER	MR	4.13	25.6	11.1	1.35	0/1/9	stable
Daniel Duarte	MR	SU	2.96	26.9	6.5	1.67	2/6/2	insufficient data
Jonathan Pintaro	MR	MR	5.22	25.0	13.5	2.47	0/1/2	ramping up
Chris Devenski	MOP_UP	LR	4.99	18.8	0.0	0.78	0/1/1	insufficient data
Nate Lavender	unknown	SU	1.45	32.4	5.4	—	0/7/0	—
Jefry Yan	unknown	MR	4.63	25.0	17.3	—	0/1/0	—
Dedniel Núñez	unknown	MR	4.92	23.3	0.0	—	0/2/0	—

TB

Pitcher	Derived	Card	FIP	K%	BB%	Mean IP	SV/HD/GF	Trend
Bryan Baker	CLOSER	CL	2.88	28.6	8.1	0.96	39/2/28	stable
Kevin Kelly	SETUP	SU	3.13	21.7	4.6	1.10	4/28/9	stable
Tyler Wells	SETUP	SU	3.52	25.4	6.5	1.26	5/15/13	stable
Garrett Cleavinger	SETUP	MR	3.71	30.3	11.8	0.88	2/23/3	stable
Casey Legumina	OPENER	MR	3.52	18.0	5.5	1.25	0/7/7	stable
Steven Matz	SWING	LR	5.25	17.4	7.2	3.53	1/1/1	ramping down
Cam Booser	MR	MR	3.30	31.4	5.0	1.11	0/9/5	stable
Manuel Rodríguez	unknown	MR	3.75	33.3	26.7	—	0/2/0	—

glossary

Pitcher metrics

xERA (Savant): Statcast's expected ERA, derived from xwOBA. Strips defense/luck — what the pitcher's contact quality says he should have given up.
xwOBA (Savant): Expected wOBA. Treats each batted ball by exit velo + launch angle (independent of where defenders stood). Lower = better for pitcher.
wOBA-xwOBA (Savant): Actual minus expected. Negative = the pitcher has been UNLUCKY (better than results show). Positive = LUCKY (worse than results show).
Outs/TB: Outs recorded ÷ total bases allowed. Custom efficiency metric. Higher = more efficient. Starter range typically 1.5–3.0.
FIP: Defense-independent ERA estimator using only K/BB/HBP/HR. Removes BABIP luck. Same scale as ERA.
kwERA: Strikeout-and-walk-only ERA estimator. 5.40 − 12·(K−BB)/PA. Strips contact entirely. K-BB% is the most stable pitcher skill.
K% / BB%: Strikeouts / walks as a share of total batters faced.
IP (25+26 combined): Total innings across the prior + current season — defines the IP-weight on combined stats.
Arsenal RV/100 (Savant): Run Value per 100 pitches, weighted across the pitcher's mix. POSITIVE = stuff playing well for the pitcher. Substitute for FanGraphs Stuff+.

Batter metrics

AVG/OBP/SLG: Standard slash line, current season.
vs L/RHP AVG/OBP/SLG (PA): Same line, but only against pitchers of the hand the batter is facing tonight. PA = sample size — small samples (<50 PA) are noisy.
xwOBA / xBA / xSLG (Savant): Statcast expected stats for the batter, based on contact quality.
xwOBA(25) (Savant): Last year's xwOBA. Useful when current-year sample is thin.
FRV (Savant): Fielding Run Value. Range + arm + framing + blocking + DP turns. Cumulative — early-season values are small.
Match xwOBA: Projected weighted xwOBA against this specific pitcher's pitch mix. Per pitch (with usage %), look up batter's xwOBA vs that pitch type, weighted average.
Cov%: Share of opposing pitcher's pitch usage where we have direct batter-vs-pitch data. Lower coverage = less reliable matchup score.

Lineup status

🟢 CONFIRMED: Posted by the team via MLB Stats API. This is the actual lineup playing.
🟡 EXPECTED: Projected from the team's last 21 days of starts vs the same handedness, with current IL filtered out. Refreshes ~T-90 min before first pitch.

Data sources

MLB Stats API (statsapi.mlb.com): schedule, lineups, raw counting stats (K/BB/HR/IP/AVG/etc.), L/R splits.
Baseball Savant (Statcast): xERA/xwOBA, pitch arsenal, Fielding Run Value, expected stats. Descriptive only — no projection system.
Baseball Prospectus: DRC+ + PECOTA when authed.
Open-Meteo: Weather forecast rotated to the park.

Post-game

actual vs projected

Final total

10 NYM · 4 TB

Projected total

—

Delta

—

actual − projected

Band cover

—

NYM

10 R

14H · 1HR · 4BB · 6K · 19LOB

OBPe 0.413 · SLGe 0.512 · K% 13.0

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 4 ER · 7 K · relief 6.0 IP · 6 arms

TB

4 R

7H · 1HR · 2BB · 7K · 9LOB

OBPe 0.250 · SLGe 0.324 · K% 19.4

Their pitching

9.0 IP · 7 ER · 6 K · relief 6.3 IP · 5 arms

NYM · standout lines

big nights

Juan Soto (DH) · 2-5 | HR, K, RBIHR

tough nights

Luis Torrens (C) · 0-4 | BB, K0-for-4

TB · standout lines

big nights

Richie Palacios (2B) · 1-4 | HR, 2 RBI, RHR

tough nights

Junior Caminero (3B) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Liam Hicks (C) · 0-4 | 2 K0-for-4 · 2 K
Victor Mesa Jr. (RF) · 0-40-for-4